Micron Technology Investment Thesis

Micron Technology, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells memory and storage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Compute and Networking Business Unit, Mobile Business Unit, Storage Business Unit, and Embedded Business Unit. It provides memory and storage technologies comprises DRAM products, which are dynamic random access memory semiconductor devices with low latency that provide high-speed data retrieval; NAND products that are non-volatile and re-writeable semiconductor storage devices; and NOR memory products, which are non-volatile re-writable semiconductor memory devices that provide fast read speeds under the Micron and Crucial brands, as well as through private labels. The company offers memory products for the cloud server, enterprise, client, graphics, and networking markets, as well as for smartphone and other mobile-device markets; SSDs and component-level solutions for the enterprise and cloud, client, and consumer storage markets; other discrete storage products in component and wafers; and memory and storage products for the automotive, industrial, and consumer markets. It markets its products through its direct sales force, independent sales representatives, distributors, and retailers; and web-based customer direct sales channel, as well as through channel and distribution partners. Micron Technology, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

Micron (MU): The HBM3 Supercycle

1. Executive Summary

Micron is no longer just a commodity memory provider; it is a critical infrastructure play for the AI revolution. The demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM3E) used in NVIDIA's GPUs has created a supply shortage that is driving pricing power to historic highs, decoupling Micron from the traditional PC/Smartphone cycle.

Key Thesis Points

AI Supply Deficit: HBM capacity is sold out through 2025. This visibility is unprecedented in the memory industry.
Technology Leadership: Micron has arguably surpassed Samsung in HBM3E yield and power efficiency, winning share in the H100/H200 supply chain.
Capital Discipline: The oligopoly (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) is exercising restraint in CapEx, preventing the oversupply that typically kills memory rallies.

2. Business Overview

Micron manufactures DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) and NAND (Flash Memory).

DRAM (70% of Rev): Server, PC, Mobile, and now HBM for AI.
NAND (30% of Rev): SSDs for data centers and devices.
Manufacturing: Fabs in US, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore.

3. Financial Analysis

(See Financials Tab for live data)

Cyclicality: Memory is the most cyclical part of tech. We are currently entering the "Up" leg of the cycle.
Gross Margins: Expected to expand from mid-teens to 40%+ as HBM mix increases.
Operating Leverage: Every dollar of price increase flows almost purely to the bottom line.

Micron Technology Investment Thesis

Micron (MU): The HBM3 Supercycle

1. Executive Summary

Key Thesis Points

2. Business Overview

3. Financial Analysis

4. Valuation

5. Risks

MU Valuation Model

Strategic Assets

The Tech Investor Daily: MU Deep Dive (2025-12-29)

CapEx Intensity: The Cost of EUV

Geopolitics: The China Ban Impact

DRAM Oligopoly: Pricing Power Returns

Micron HBM3e: The Nvidia Allocation Key

Cyclical Timing: Buying MU at Book Value

MU earnings preview

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Investment Memo: MU

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

Micron (MU): Riding the AI Wave - A Memory Powerhouse for the Next Decade

MU earnings preview

Micron (MU): Riding the AI Wave - A Memory Powerhouse for the Next Decade

INVESTMENT PRIMER

Investment Memo: MU

Investment Memo: MU