Edition #244 | December 19, 2025
As hardware capex peaks, capital flows into the application layer—making PLTR the top pick for 2026.
📉 Market Pulse
- S&P 500: +0.1%
- Nasdaq: +0.3%
- Sentiment: 🐂 Bullish
The Vibe: Investors are taking profits on chip stocks (NVDA, AMD) and rotating into software names that can monetize the compute. The trade of 2026 is "The Application Layer".
📰 The Lead: The Great Rotation
The Capex Wall is Crumbling
Investors have been obsessed with Nvidia's supply chain for 18 months. But the narrative is shifting. Large Cloud Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) have spent over $200B on chips. Now, their shareholders are demanding Revenue.
Palantir stands out as the primary beneficiary. While others build models, Palantir builds the Operating System that makes models useful for enterprise.
```mermaid graph LR A[Hardware Spend] -->|Saturation| B[Infrastructure Built] B -->|Demand| C[Application Layer] C -->|Winner| D[Palantir (PLTR)] style D fill:#e1f5fe,stroke:#01579b,stroke-width:2px ```
The Thesis for PLTR
- Commercial Growth: accelerating past 30%.
- AIP Bootcamps: The most efficient GTM motion in SaaS history.
- S&P 500 Effect: Institutional ownership is still low compared to peers.
Read the full Deep Dive here.
🎯 Top Movers
📅 Calendar
- Tomorrow: Weekend. Go touch grass.
🔭 Daily Ticker Focus
AAPL
Apple hit an all-time high today. The 'iPhone 17 Supercycle' narrative is gaining steam, but the real story is Services revenue growth accelerating back to 15% YoY.