PayPal is a battleground stock. Reviewing it as a "dying button" ignores the reality: it is still the dominant digital wallet globally.
The thesis is Unbranded Processing (Braintree). While the "PayPal Button" growth slows, Braintree (which powers Uber, Airbnb, Spotify payments) is growing fast. New management is focused on "Profitable Growth" using transaction data to launch an Ad Network. The valuation is priced for death (low PE), offering a margin of safety.
Product Deep Dive: Button vs. Rails
1. The Branded Button (PayPal/Venmo)
- The Product: Yellow button at checkout.
- The State: Losing share to Apple Pay.
- The Response: "Fastlane." A new guest-checkout product that is 40% faster. This is their attempt to fight Apple Pay on non-iPhone devices.
2. Braintree (Unbranded)
- The Product: The invisible plumbing behind Uber/Airbnb.
- The Economics: Lower margin than the button, but massive volume.
- Strategy: "Price to Value." Stop underpricing Braintree; charge premium rates for premium authorization rates.
3. Venmo
- The Product: Social payments.
- Problem: Monetization. Venmo is huge but barely profitable. They need to turn it into a commerce engine, not just a P2P tool.
The Business Model
- Take Rate Pressure: Transaction margins have been compressing because Braintree (low margin) is growing faster than Branded (high margin). The goal is to stabilize this.
- Active Accounts: Accounts are declining as they purge "ghost accounts," but Transactions Per Account are rising. Quality over Quantity.
Risks
- Apple Pay: The ultimate killer. It is integrated into the OS.
- Commoditization: Processing payments is a race to the bottom on price.
- Execution: New CEO Alex Chriss has promised a lot (Innovation Day). Needs to deliver product wins.
Conclusion
PayPal is a classic Value Trap vs. Value Play debate. If "Fastlane" works and margins stabilize, the stock re-rates higher.