1. Financial Health Check
- Revenue: $31.05B
- Net Income: $16.98B
- Net Margin: 54.67%
- Revenue Growth (3yr CAGR): N/A (Need historical data)
- ROE (Return on Equity): N/A (Missing Equity)
- ROIC (Return on Invested Capital): [ROIC (Return on Invested Capital)]
- Debt/Equity: N/A (Missing Liabilities)
- Free Cash Flow Yield: [Free Cash Flow Yield]
- Free Cash Flow Trend: [Free Cash Flow Trend]
2. Financial Trends
3. Historical Data
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | Gross Profit | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 31.05B | 16.98B | 31.05B | -10.52B |
| 2023 | 31.94B | 17.41B | 31.94B | 11.88B |
| 2022 | 24.53B | 12.92B | 24.53B | 43.83B |
| 2021 | 36.61B | 22.18B | 36.61B | 47.21B |
| 2020 | 23.03B | 11.80B | 23.03B | -72.93B |
4. Competitive Advantage (Moat)
- Type of Moat: Network Effect
- Strength: Wide
- Description: Fannie Mae's established position in the mortgage market and its role in standardizing mortgage-backed securities create a network effect. The more participants use Fannie Mae's services, the more valuable those services become to other participants, making it difficult for new entrants to compete. They guarantee a very large percentage of mortgages allowing for revenue consistency.
5. Management Quality
- CEO: Peter Akwaboah (Acting)
- Capital Allocation: Focus on building capital through retained earnings. No explicit mention of dividends, buybacks, or M&A in this excerpt. Primary focus is on meeting regulatory capital requirements.
- Tone: Cautious
- Key Quotes:
- "We remain focused on building capital through strong earnings, disciplined risk management and operational efficiency to deliver meaningful results for homeowners and renters across America."
- "...our guaranty business continues to serve as a consistent and durable foundation for our revenue base. We remain committed to building regulatory capital and supporting the housing market, while operating in a safe and sound manner."
6. Growth Prospects
- Total Addressable Market (TAM): [Size and Growth Rate]
- Market Share: [Current share and potential to gain]
- New Products/Services: [Pipeline]
7. Scuttlebutt & Soft Data
- Customer Reviews: [Trends in customer satisfaction]
- Employee Feedback: [Glassdoor ratings, turnover]
- Channel Checks: [Insights from suppliers or distributors]
8. Valuation
- P/E Ratio: [Current vs. Historical vs. Peers]
- EV/EBITDA: [Current vs. Historical vs. Peers]
- DCF Fair Value: [Estimate]
9. Risks
- [Risk 1: Affordability headwinds and buyer caution impacting the housing market.]
- [Risk 2: Multifamily challenges leading to increased delinquencies and net charge-offs.]
- [Risk 3: Failure to meet regulatory capital requirements. The company has a significant regulatory capital deficit.] ```
10. Checklist
- Do I understand the business model?
- Is the balance sheet healthy?
- Is management aligned with shareholders?
- Is the valuation reasonable?
- Is there a clear catalyst?