December 29, 2025
The Rumor
SoftBank is in advanced talks to acquire DigitalBridge for $18 billion, representing a ~35% premium to the pre-rumor price.
Strategic Logic
Masayoshi Son's "Project Izanagi" aims to build a sovereign AI super-intelligence.
- The Chip: Arm Holdings (SoftBank owned).
- The Funding: Vision Fund.
- The Body: DigitalBridge.
By acquiring DBRG, SoftBank secures the physical body for its AI brain. They gain immediate control over Vantage Data Centers, allowing them to deploy their proprietary AI clusters without waiting in line for capacity at Equinix or Digital Realty.
Deal Probability
- High (70%): DBRG management has always been open to "maximizing shareholder value."
- Risk (CFIUS): The main hurdle is regulatory. Will the US government allow a Japanese conglomerate (with deep ties to Middle Eastern sovereign wealth/LPs) to own critical US communications infrastructure?
Action
Take Profit. If the stock trades near $27-28, the upside is capped by the deal price, but the downside risk of a regulatory block is substantial (back to $20).