Investment Memo: AFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce in the United States and Canada. The company's platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. Its payments network and partnership with an originating bank, enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time with terms ranging from one to forty-eight months. As of June 30, 2021, the company had approximately 29,000 merchants integrated on its platform covering small businesses, large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies. Its merchants represent a range of industries, including sporting goods and outdoors, furniture and homewares, travel, apparel, accessories, consumer electronics, and jewelry. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

🏛️ Investment Memo: AFRM

Recommendation: {{ACTION}} (Target: ${{PRICE}}) Current Price: ${{CURRENT_PRICE}} Implied Upside: {{UPSIDE}}%

1. The Executive Thesis (The "Elevator Pitch")

The Opportunity: [Focus on asymmetry. e.g. "A mispriced compounder trading at 12x FCF despite 20% growth."]
The Portfolio Fit: [Explain correlation. e.g. "This asset provides exposure to AI growth but with Utility-like defensive cash flows."]

2. The "Quality" Scorecard

Capital Allocation: [Does management buy back stock or waste money? Recent M&A track record?]
ROIC Trend: [Is it >15%? Is it rising or falling? Why?]
The "Moat" Durability: [Why will margins remain high for 5 years? Switching costs or Network effects?]

3. Valuation & Margin of Safety

Base Case: [Assumptions: {{GROWTH}}% growth, {{MULTIPLE}}x multiple = ${{PRICE}}/share]
Bear Case (The "Kill" Criteria): [What happens if growth hits 0%? e.g. "Even with 0% growth, the 5% dividend yield provides a floor."]

4. Key Risks (Pre-Mortem)

Risk 1: [Customer Concentration (>10% of revenue)]
Risk 2: [Regulatory headwinds]
Risk 3: [Management turnover]

Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Investment Memo: AFRM

🏛️ Investment Memo: AFRM

1. The Executive Thesis (The "Elevator Pitch")

2. The "Quality" Scorecard

3. Valuation & Margin of Safety

4. Key Risks (Pre-Mortem)

AFRM Valuation Model

Market Update: AFRM - 2025-12-22

Investment Memo: AFRM

Market Update: AFRM - 2025-12-22