Strip the Float and BILL Still Burns Cash: Why Activists Circle

How BILL makes money

BILL automates payables and receivables, runs Spend and Expense cards (formerly Divvy) and embeds payments in partner software and banks. About 479,300 businesses use it, mostly small and mid-sized, and about 9.2M network members have paid or been paid through it.

It sells directly and through accounting firms, banks, embedded partners and integrations with QuickBooks, NetSuite, Sage Intacct, Xero and Dynamics 365. No customer exceeds 10% of revenue.

FY2026 (year to Jun 30, 2026) revenue was $1,653.2M. Transaction fees were $1,211.2M, up 18%, led by Spend and Expense at $675.6M (up 22%) against AP/AR at $504.1M (up 12%).

Subscription fees were $293.5M, up 8%. Interest on customer funds was $148.4M, down 8% as rates fell.

Remaining performance obligations are only $55.6M, which reflects monthly, usage-driven revenue. From Q1 FY2027, card rewards are netted against interchange revenue, which lowers revenue without changing profit or cash flow.

The float problem

Operating cash flow of $415.8M less $3.3M of capex, $57.8M of capitalised software, $229.8M of stock pay, $91.4M of interest on corporate cash and a provisional $5.2M one-time tax benefit leaves an owner anchor of $28.3M. That figure still includes the $148.4M of float.

Removing it gives about negative $120.1M: the software and payments business does not yet cover its stock pay. Every 100 basis points of lower rates on year-end customer funds of $4.35B would remove about $43.5M of revenue.

At the $50.70 close on Oct 23, 2026, enterprise value is about $5.15B, using $822.4M of net debt (convertible notes of $1.52B and $330M of revolvers less $1.03B of cash, with investments and customer funds excluded). That is about 181.84x the anchor, and the reverse cash-flow model needs 34.8% annual growth for ten years at a 9% discount rate.

With only one positive anchor year, no base value is set.

Activists set the agenda

Superintelligence agents are aimed squarely at invoice capture, approvals and vendor payment. BILL has rails, risk models, a network and an official MCP server in beta, but years of uneven execution leave the risk that agents route around it.

Leadership turnover has been heavy: the President moved to a strategy role and the CTO and payments head left in mid-2026. Starboard held 10.1% at its Aug 2026 13D amendment under a cooperation agreement, and Elliott disclosed a stake in 2025. BILL bought back $560.5M of stock in FY2026. The Q1 FY2027 print on Nov 5, 2026 will show the first quarter on the new revenue basis.

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