BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) currently trades at $417.69 with an enterprise value of $30.52B. Our proprietary institutional model rates BILL Holdings, Inc. at 60/100 (Grade: B · Mixed Fundamental Profile). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 72.6% vs. historical growth of 57.4% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (60/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 81.4% gross margin and 78.6% Rule of 40 score
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Substantial SBC dilution drag: SBC is 16.6% of revenue ($242.5M)
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into BILL?
The current share price demands 72.6% 5-year CAGR—a +15.1% acceleration over historical run-rate (57.4%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.46B | $1.46B | $2.30B | $3.62B | $5.70B | $8.98B | $14.13B |
| Gross Profit | $1.19B | $1.19B | $1.87B | $2.95B | $4.64B | $7.31B | $11.50B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-80.6M | $-80.6M | $-126.8M | $-199.7M | $-314.3M | $-494.6M | $-778.6M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $242.5M | $242.5M | $381.7M | $600.8M | $945.6M | $1.49B | $2.34B |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $309.7M | $309.6M | $487.4M | $767.1M | $1.21B | $1.90B | $2.99B |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $67.1M | $67.1M | $105.7M | $166.3M | $261.8M | $412.0M | $648.6M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables Matrix
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILL Holdings, Inc. | BILL | $46.82B | $1.46B | 81.4% | 21.2% | 78.6% | 16.6% | 32.5× |
| ServiceNow, Inc. | NOW | $192.40B | $10.98B | 79.5% | 31.5% | 54.0% | 15.8% | 17.2× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $38.74B | $2.98B | 74.9% | 20.8% | 41.1% | 17.1% | 12.5× |
| Salesforce, Inc. | CRM | $307.82B | $37.90B | 76.8% | 32.4% | 43.4% | 8.4% | 8.0× |
| Datadog, Inc. | DDOG | $45.58B | $2.68B | 81.2% | 28.5% | 55.0% | 20.4% | 16.1× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $54.93B | $3.62B | 74.0% | 26.0% | 54.0% | 34.5% | 14.7× |
| HubSpot, Inc. | HUBS | $38.18B | $4.76B | 83.4% | 16.9% | 38.8% | 10.9% | 7.4× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 27.3% | 48.7% | 16.4% | 13.6× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 32.4× | $47.46B | $46.82B | $417.69 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 26.0× | $37.96B | $37.33B | $333.02 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 21.1× | $30.85B | $30.21B | $269.52 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $7.31B | $6.68B | $59.59 | -84.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions: BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) Valuation
What is BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) has a Base Case implied value of $266.64 per share (with a Bear Case of $60.47 and a Bull Case of $673.81), compared to its current price of $417.69. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
BILL Holdings, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 78.6%, combining a 57.4% revenue growth run-rate with a 21.2% TTM free cash flow margin on $1.46B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 48.7%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into BILL stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $417.69 per share (Enterprise Value of $47.46B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 72.6%, compared to BILL Holdings, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 57.4%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does BILL Holdings, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 60/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 13.6× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL)'s valuation?
BILL Holdings, Inc. recorded $242.5M in TTM stock-based compensation (16.6% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, BILL Holdings, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.1%, scoring 10/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.