Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) currently trades at $18.06 with an enterprise value of $3.33B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Cellebrite DI Ltd. at 93/100 (Grade: A+ · Elite SaaS Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 26.2% vs. historical growth of 19.8% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test CLBT's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $18.06).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $15.95 -12% | $16.92 -6% | $18.06 -0% | $19.40 +7% | $21.01 +16% |
| 9.3% | $14.37 -20% | $15.14 -16% | $16.02 -11% | $17.04 -6% | $18.24 +1% |
| 10.0% | $13.07 -28% | $13.69 -24% | $14.39 -20% | $15.19 -16% | $16.11 -11% |
| 10.8% | $11.99 -34% | $12.49 -31% | $13.06 -28% | $13.69 -24% | $14.42 -20% |
| 11.5% | $11.07 -39% | $11.48 -36% | $11.95 -34% | $12.47 -31% | $13.05 -28% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (93/100 · Grade A+)
Exceptional unit economics, disciplined equity dilution, and fortress balance sheet.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 214% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 84.4% gross margin and 50.1% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $180.7M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into CLBT?
Market implies 26.2% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (31.2% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (7.6% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.9%/yr). Accounting for both requires 31.2% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $18.06/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $401.2M | $401.2M | $480.6M | $575.6M | $689.5M | $825.9M | $989.2M |
| Gross Profit | $338.6M | $338.6M | $405.6M | $485.8M | $581.9M | $697.0M | $834.9M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $56.9M | $56.9M | $68.1M | $81.6M | $97.8M | $117.1M | $140.3M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $30.6M | $30.6M | $36.6M | $43.9M | $52.5M | $62.9M | $75.4M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $121.6M | $121.6M | $145.6M | $174.4M | $208.9M | $250.2M | $299.7M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $91.0M | $91.0M | $109.0M | $130.5M | $156.4M | $187.3M | $224.4M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -30.3 + 0.82 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 79%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cellebrite DI Ltd. | CLBT | $4.42B | $401.2M | 84.4% | 30.3% | 50.1% | 7.6% | 10.6× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 10.6× | $4.23B | $4.42B | $18.06 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 8.4× | $3.39B | $3.57B | $14.60 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 6.9× | $2.75B | $2.93B | $12.00 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $2.01B | $2.19B | $8.94 | -52.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) Valuation
What is Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) has a Base Case implied value of $14.38 per share (with a Bear Case of $6.66 and a Bull Case of $25.06), compared to its current price of $18.06. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Cellebrite DI Ltd. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 50.1%, combining a 19.8% revenue growth run-rate with a 30.3% TTM free cash flow margin on $401.2M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into CLBT stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $18.06 per share (Enterprise Value of $4.23B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 26.2%, compared to Cellebrite DI Ltd.'s historical CAGR of 19.8%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Cellebrite DI Ltd. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 93/100 (Grade A+ — Elite SaaS Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Cellebrite DI Ltd. (CLBT)'s valuation?
Cellebrite DI Ltd. recorded $30.6M in TTM stock-based compensation (7.6% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Cellebrite DI Ltd.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 2.1%, scoring 21/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.