Cerence Inc. (CRNC) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Cerence Inc. (CRNC) trades at $23.34 with a market enterprise value of $1.20B and generated $309.5M in TTM revenue and $78.6M in free cash flow (filed 2026-08-06 (period ended 2026-06-30)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of $10.96 per diluted share ($612.5M DCF enterprise value, Grade: A · 78/100 · High-Quality Compounder).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of Cerence Inc. (CRNC): $309.5M TTM revenue (-10.2% growth), 78.7% GAAP gross margin, 25.4% FCF margin, 8.7% SBC/revenue, and R&D Return Grade D (Burners, $-0.50 new gross profit per $1 prior R&D).
Cerence Inc. (CRNC) earns a "Pass" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 78/100 (Grade A). On $309.5M in baseline revenue (-10.2% growth, 78.7% gross margin, 25.4% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $612.5M ($10.96/share vs. $23.34 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, CRNC ranks #169 of 174 (Burners · Grade D, -0.50× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Cerence Inc. operates at a 78.7% gross margin on $309.5M revenue (+6.0 pts above the Software - Application median of 72.7%).
R&D Productivity (Burners · Grade D): Investing 38.8% of revenue in R&D ($97.8M) generates $-0.50 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #169 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining -10.2% top-line growth with 25.4% FCF margin yields a 15.2% Rule of 40 score (vs. 47.2% cohort median) and $612.5M DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (78.7% Gross Margin · -10.2% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $309.5M | $277.9M | $249.6M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($65.9M) | ($57.8M) | ($50.7M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $243.6M (78.7%) | $220.1M (79.2%) | $198.9M (79.7%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $110.6M | $95.4M | $82.1M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $76.3M | $65.8M | $56.6M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $29.7M | $25.6M | $22.0M |
| Operating EBIT | $27.0M (8.7%) | $33.4M (12.0%) | $38.2M (15.3%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $36.8M (11.9%) | $42.3M (15.2%) | $46.2M (18.5%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 78.7% to 83.7%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $49.0M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $266.5M.
Cerence Inc. (CRNC) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test CRNC's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands CRNC's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $23.34).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $12.23 -48% | $13.00 -44% | $13.89 -41% | $14.94 -36% | $16.20 -31% |
| 9.3% | $10.97 -53% | $11.57 -50% | $12.26 -47% | $13.06 -44% | $14.00 -40% |
| 10.0% | $9.92 -57% | $10.40 -55% | $10.95 -53% | $11.58 -50% | $12.30 -47% |
| 10.8% | $9.04 -61% | $9.44 -60% | $9.88 -58% | $10.38 -56% | $10.95 -53% |
| 11.5% | $8.29 -64% | $8.62 -63% | $8.99 -62% | $9.39 -60% | $9.85 -58% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (78/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Manageable debt load covered by recurring positive free cash flow
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 291% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Audited R&D Intensity is 38.8% of revenue with a -0.50× incremental gross profit return per R&D dollar. Under your current Stage 1 (-10.2% CAGR / 78.7% GM) assumptions, CRNC projects to -0.05× R&D Return (Grade D · Burners).
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into CRNC?
The current share price demands 5.2% 5-year CAGR (12.6% net of SBC & dilution)—a +15.4% acceleration over historical run-rate (-10.2%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (8.7% of revenue) and annual share dilution (2.5%/yr). Accounting for both requires 12.6% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $23.34/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Cerence Inc. (CRNC) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $309.5M | $309.5M | $277.9M | $249.6M | $224.1M | $201.3M | $180.7M |
| Gross Profit | $243.6M | $243.5M | $218.7M | $196.4M | $176.4M | $158.4M | $142.2M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $27.0M | $27.0M | $24.2M | $21.8M | $19.5M | $17.5M | $15.8M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $26.9M | $26.9M | $24.2M | $21.7M | $19.5M | $17.5M | $15.7M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $78.6M | $78.6M | $70.6M | $63.4M | $56.9M | $51.1M | $45.9M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $51.7M | $51.7M | $46.4M | $41.7M | $37.5M | $33.6M | $30.2M |
Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 6.9 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerence Inc. | CRNC | $1.11B | $309.5M | 78.7% | 25.4% | 15.2% | 8.7% | 3.9× |
| Grab Holdings Limited | GRAB | $20.18B | $2.80B | 42.0% | 27.7% | 84.0% | 10.0% | 6.3× |
| Figma, Inc. | FIG | $18.07B | $749.0M | 88.3% | -9.2% | 39.1% | 126.5% | 23.5× |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | $71.73B | $11.24B | 86.6% | 25.8% | 70.2% | 4.4% | 5.9× |
| ServiceTitan, Inc. | TTAN | $9.97B | $771.9M | 64.9% | 2.0% | 30.5% | 21.2% | 12.5× |
| InterDigital, Inc. | IDCC | $8.65B | $868.5M | 80.5% | 30.6% | 55.3% | 5.3% | 9.9× |
| OPEN TEXT CORP | OTEX | $8.11B | $5.30B | 63.5% | 13.0% | 23.8% | 2.0% | 2.6× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.7% | 19.4% | 47.2% | 7.6% | 8.1× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.9× | $1.20B | $1.11B | $23.34 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 3.1× | $963.0M | $873.6M | $18.30 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.5× | $782.5M | $693.0M | $14.52 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.55B | $1.46B | $30.54 | +28.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Cerence Inc. (CRNC) Valuation
What is Cerence Inc. (CRNC)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Cerence Inc. (CRNC) has a Base Case implied value of $10.96 per share (with a Bear Case of $8.74 and a Bull Case of $12.50), compared to its current price of $23.34. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Cerence Inc. (CRNC)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Cerence Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 15.2%, combining a -10.2% revenue growth run-rate with a 25.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $309.5M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into CRNC stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $23.34 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.20B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 5.2%, compared to Cerence Inc.'s historical CAGR of -10.2%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
What is Cerence Inc. (CRNC)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
On the Golden Door Software R&D Return Benchmark, Cerence Inc. (CRNC) is ranked #169 out of 174 scored software peers, earning a Grade D in the "Burners" quadrant. Cerence Inc. invests 38.8% of FY revenue into R&D ($97.8M) and generated $-0.50 of incremental gross profit per prior-year R&D dollar.
How does Cerence Inc. compare to Software - Application peers?
Cerence Inc. (CRNC) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 78/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Cerence Inc. (CRNC)'s valuation?
Cerence Inc. recorded $26.9M in TTM stock-based compensation (8.7% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Cerence Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 4.6%, scoring 21/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.