Samsara Owns the Data Coming Off the Truck but Stock Pay Still Swallows the Cash Shareholders Keep

Cash left for shareholders after capex and all stock pay

-$75.1M

Twelve months to Aug 1, 2026, our calculation

Growth in contracted revenue not yet recognized

35.4%

Aug 1, 2026 against a year earlier, our calculation

Taxes paid to settle employee stock awards

$70.4M

Six months to Aug 1, 2026

1. Our call: Hold off, because Samsara owns the sensor record for fleets but stock pay still swallows its cash

Our call: Hold off. Samsara sells cameras, vehicle gateways and sensors plus the cloud software that reads them, so trucking, construction, utility and field service companies can track vehicles, drivers, equipment and sites in one system ^[1].

It had 3,194 customers above $100,000 of annual recurring revenue at Jan 31, 2026, and those customers made up about 61% of the total ^[1].

Fiscal 2026 revenue rose 29.6% to $1,618.6M, our calculation, and second quarter fiscal 2027 revenue rose 30% to $508.4M ^[3][11]. Annual recurring revenue reached $2,124.7M, up 30% ^[3].

The company guides fiscal 2027 revenue to $2,043M to $2,047M, growth of 26% ^[3].

We measure owner cash, the cash left for shareholders: operating cash flow, less capital spending, less all stock pay. Samsara discloses no separate capitalized software outflow, so capex is the property and equipment line ^[2].

On that measure the figure was negative $107.5M in fiscal 2026 and negative $75.1M over the twelve months to Aug 1, 2026, our calculation from the filings and SEC XBRL

2. Research spending is about a fifth of revenue

2b. Samsara owns the data coming off the vehicle

A customer bolts Samsara hardware onto each truck, trailer or machine, and that hardware streams location, engine, camera and safety data into Samsara's cloud ^[1]. The record of where an asset was and how it was driven is created by Samsara's own devices, not imported from another system ^[1].

One pass and three partials. The gate is the hardware: the data starts on Samsara's device, so a rival has to swap equipment across a fleet to take the account ^[1].

The partials reflect a crowded market of fleet vendors and per-device pricing that does not rise with the results customers get ^[1].

3. Growth has slowed but is still near 30%

Second quarter net new recurring revenue was $134.1M, up 28%, and recurring revenue grew 30% for a third straight quarter ^[3]. Third quarter guidance of $514M to $516M implies 24% revenue growth, slower than the first half, our calculation ^[3][11].

Contracted revenue not yet recognized, the company's remaining performance obligations, was $4,285.2M at Aug 1, 2026 against $3,165.5M a year earlier, up 35.4%, our calculation ^[11]. That runs ahead of revenue growth, which suggests longer or larger contracts ^[2].

Current deferred revenue was $728.9M ^[2].

4. Large customers drive the growth

Customers with more than $1,000,000 of recurring revenue generated over $500M of it at the end of the second quarter, growth of over 50% for a third straight quarter ^[3]. About 85% of recurring revenue came from Core Customers, those above $25,000 each, at Jan 31, 2026 ^[1].

Over 95% of customers above $100,000 bought more than one application at Jan 31, 2026, which shows the account expands after the first device goes in ^[1]. The 10-K does not name any customer above 10% of revenue ^[1].

The concentration risk is in industry rather than in single names: most customers run vehicles and heavy equipment, so a freight or construction downturn would hit many at once ^[1].

5. GAAP profit has arrived, but stock pay is still a sixth of revenue

GAAP operating income was $4.9M in the second quarter, against a $26.6M loss a year earlier, and $12.1M for the first half ^[2][3]. Net income was positive for a fourth straight quarter, though the first quarter included a $30.3M gain from an arbitration award against Motive Technologies that had not been collected at Aug 1, 2026 ^[2][3].

Stock pay was $315.0M in fiscal 2026, 19.5% of revenue, our calculation ^[11]. In the first half of fiscal 2027 it was $173.9M, 17.6% of revenue, our calculation ^[2].

The company's non-GAAP operating margin of 21% in the second quarter excludes that cost ^[3].

Gross margin held at 77% in the second quarter, the same as a year earlier, because hardware costs are spread over the subscription term through connected device cost assets of $489.5M at Aug 1, 2026, our calculation ^[2][3]. That asset grew $49.4M in the first half from $440.1M at Jan 31, 2026, our calculation, and the cash spent on devices runs through operating cash flow, so our measure already absorbs it

6. Cash left for shareholders is still negative, but the gap is closing

The gap narrowed by $93.5M in fiscal 2025 and $58.9M in fiscal 2026, and the first half of fiscal 2027 was $32.4M better than a year earlier, our calculation ^[11]. At that pace the measure could cross zero in fiscal 2028, not fiscal 2027 ^[11].

A new cash cost appeared this year. Samsara began withholding shares to pay employee taxes when stock awards vest, and paid $70.4M of those taxes in the first half, against none a year earlier ^[2].

That reduces dilution but uses cash in the same way a buyback would ^[2]. We do not subtract it again in our measure, because the stock pay line already counts the value of those awards; adding both would count the same grant twice ^[2][11].

Read the other way, the first half used $106.3M once withholding is included, our calculation, which is the cash a holder actually saw leave the business for stock pay and its taxes

7. No buybacks, no debt and $1.3B of cash and investments

Samsara has no repurchase program and no borrowings ^[2]. Cash, short-term and long-term investments totaled $1,325.7M at Aug 1, 2026, our calculation ^[2].

Class A and Class B shares outstanding were 585.6M on Sep 1, 2026 ^[2]. The founders' Jan 6, 2026 filing put the count near 577.0M on Nov 1, 2025, so shares grew about 1.5% in ten months, our calculation ^[2][7].

The founders are also selling. Sanjit Biswas and John Bicket each plan to sell up to about 5.0M shares through family trusts between Jan 6 and Dec 24, 2026, which would leave them with about 32.3% of the shares ^[7].

8. The main risks are founder control, freight cycles and rivals

Control: Biswas and Bicket held 39.6% and 38.4% of the voting power in the 2026 proxy, through Class B shares, and they used written consent rather than a meeting to approve moving the company's legal home from Delaware to Nevada, effective Jun 1, 2026 ^[4][5][6]. Nevada law gives holders fewer ways to challenge controlling owners, so the move shifts power further toward the founders, our reading ^[5].

Cycles: trucking and construction customers cut spending when freight and building slow ^[1]. Growth guidance already steps down to 24% in the third quarter ^[3].

Rivals: the 10-K lists vendors from Geotab to Motive, Samsara's litigation opponent, and warns that competitors may bundle or give away rival offerings ^[1][2].

9. A founder-led growth company crossing into profit

Samsara is past the start-up stage: it has positive operating cash flow, GAAP profit and no debt ^[2][3]. It is not yet a mature cash generator, since stock pay is larger than operating cash flow ^[11].

Three choices this year mark the shift. The company started net settling vested stock awards, it moved its legal home to Nevada, and it kept all of its $1,325.7M of cash and investments rather than starting a buyback ^[2][5].

Each of those keeps flexibility with management and the founders ^[2][5].

The share count is the cost holders bear for now. Diluted weighted shares rose to 590.5M in the second quarter from 571.7M a year earlier, 3.3% more, our calculation ^[11].

Revenue growth near 30% has outrun that dilution, which is why the business still compounds for holders even before cash left for shareholders turns positive ^[3]

10. Agents that run fleets still need the truck data

The bull case is that software agents dispatching, routing and coaching drivers need live data from the vehicle, and Samsara already owns that feed ^[1]. The company says adoption of some of its newest automated features rose sharply in the two months to early September 2026 ^[3].

The bear case is that the same data could be read by rival devices or the vehicle maker's own systems, and per-device pricing caps what Samsara earns as the software does more of the work ^[1].

The test between the two cases is in the numbers Samsara already discloses. If agents raise what each customer spends, net new recurring revenue should keep growing faster than the device count, and remaining performance obligations should keep running ahead of revenue, as they did at 35.4% against 30% in the second quarter ^[2][3][11].

If the agents mainly replace dispatchers and safety staff without lifting spend, growth would drift toward the 24% third quarter guide and below ^[3].

11. Two founders in control and a board tied to Meta, ServiceNow, Intel and Qualcomm

Sanjit Biswas, co-founder, chief executive and Chair since 2015, previously co-founded Meraki and ran it until Cisco bought it ^[4]. John Bicket, co-founder and chief technology officer, was Meraki's technology chief ^[4].

Chief financial officer Dominic Phillips, formerly in finance at ServiceNow and at Morgan Stanley, sits on the Datadog board ^[4]. Adam Eltoukhy, chief administrative officer, came from Palantir ^[4].

The proxy discloses that Samsara paid $1.02M in fiscal 2026, below market rates, to charter a plane that Biswas owns through a company ^[4]. Lara Caimi left as president of field operations in 2025 ^[10].

Lead Independent Director Jonathan Chadwick, former VMware finance chief, sits on the ServiceNow, Zoom and Confluent boards ^[4]. Marc Andreessen of Andreessen Horowitz sits on the Meta and Coinbase boards ^[4].

Todd Bluedorn, former Lennox chief executive, sits on the Texas Instruments and Medline boards ^[4]

12. The questions we would ask management, and the calls we are tracking

Question one: when does operating cash flow pass stock pay plus capex for a full fiscal year? ^[11]

Question two: will tax payments on vested awards continue at about $35M a quarter, and is a buyback planned? ^[2]

Question three: why does third quarter guidance imply 24% growth when recurring revenue grew 30%? ^[3]

Question four: has the $30.3M Motive award been collected, and is the dispute over? ^[2]

Question five: what did the founders gain from the Nevada move that Delaware did not allow? That answer sets our conviction.

^[5][6]

Prediction one: fiscal 2027 revenue exceeds $2,047M, the top of guidance (70%). ^[3]

Prediction two: fiscal 2027 cash left for shareholders, as we define it, is above negative $50M (45%). ^[11]

Prediction three: annual recurring revenue at Jan 30, 2027 exceeds $2,350M (55%).

Bottom line: Samsara owns the fleet data, but holders still fund the stock pay

Samsara's devices create the operating record for fleets and equipment, its recurring revenue grows 30%, and it holds $1,325.7M of cash and investments with no debt ^[2][3]. But over the twelve months to Aug 1, 2026 cash left for shareholders was negative $75.1M, the founders control the vote and moved the company to Nevada by written consent, and both are selling ^[2][5][7].

We would move to Buy if the measure turns positive for a full fiscal year while recurring revenue growth holds above 25%. Growth below 20% or another governance change made without a holder vote would move us to Avoid.

Our call: Hold off, conviction 3 of 5.