MongoDB (MDB) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
MongoDB (MDB) currently trades at $420.61 with an enterprise value of $4.02B. Our proprietary institutional model rates MongoDB at 59/100 (Grade: B · Mixed Fundamental Profile). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 95.4% vs. historical growth of 25.0% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Mission-critical operational document database powering modern cloud-native and AI application architectures.
MongoDB (MDB) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (59/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Severe dilution; heavy SBC shields GAAP losses while diluting common equity
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Healthy unit economics: 73.3% gross margin
- Net cash positive: $453.6M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Excessive shareholder dilution: SBC represents 24.6% of revenue and 329% of operating cash flow
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into MDB?
The current share price demands 95.4% 5-year CAGR—a +70.4% acceleration over historical run-rate (25.0%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
MongoDB (MDB) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.01B | $2.01B | $2.51B | $3.14B | $3.92B | $4.90B | $6.12B |
| Gross Profit | $1.47B | $1.47B | $1.84B | $2.30B | $2.87B | $3.59B | $4.49B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-216.1M | $-216.1M | $-270.1M | $-337.6M | $-422.1M | $-527.6M | $-659.5M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $493.9M | $494.0M | $617.5M | $771.9M | $964.8M | $1.21B | $1.51B |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $120.6M | $120.6M | $150.7M | $188.4M | $235.5M | $294.4M | $368.0M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $-373.3M | $-373.4M | $-466.7M | $-583.4M | $-729.3M | $-911.6M | $-1.14B |
Data, Observability & Cloud Infrastructure Peer Comparables Matrix
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MongoDB | MDB | $34.23B | $2.01B | 73.3% | 6.0% | 31.0% | 24.6% | 16.8× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $54.93B | $3.62B | 74.0% | 26.0% | 54.0% | 34.5% | 14.7× |
| Cloudflare, Inc. | NET | $38.64B | $1.68B | 77.2% | 13.5% | 43.0% | 21.0% | 22.7× |
| Nutanix, Inc. | NTNX | $59.00B | $4.36B | 76.9% | 13.1% | 38.3% | 10.1% | 13.1× |
| Akamai Technologies | AKAM | $14.59B | $1.70B | 79.0% | 29.4% | 57.7% | 20.5% | 8.2× |
| Palantir Technologies | PLTR | $150.93B | $2.87B | 82.5% | 36.5% | 63.5% | 19.2% | 51.1× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=5) | 77.2% | 26.0% | 54.0% | 20.5% | 14.7× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 16.8× | $33.78B | $34.23B | $420.61 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 13.5× | $27.02B | $27.48B | $337.60 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 10.9× | $21.96B | $22.41B | $275.34 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $10.03B | $10.49B | $128.83 | -70.3% |
Frequently Asked Questions: MongoDB (MDB) Valuation
What is MongoDB (MDB)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, MongoDB (MDB) has a Base Case implied value of $54.99 per share (with a Bear Case of $25.10 and a Bull Case of $99.08), compared to its current price of $420.61. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is MongoDB (MDB)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
MongoDB achieves a Rule of 40 score of 31.0%, combining a 25.0% revenue growth run-rate with a 6.0% TTM free cash flow margin on $2.01B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Data, Observability & Cloud Infrastructure peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 54.0%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into MDB stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $420.61 per share (Enterprise Value of $33.78B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 95.4%, compared to MongoDB's historical CAGR of 25.0%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does MongoDB compare to Data, Observability & Cloud Infrastructure software peers?
MongoDB (MDB) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 59/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Data, Observability & Cloud Infrastructure peer group (SNOW, NET, NTNX, AKAM, PLTR), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 14.7× and a median gross margin of 77.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact MongoDB (MDB)'s valuation?
MongoDB recorded $493.9M in TTM stock-based compensation (24.6% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, MongoDB's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -1.1%, scoring 4/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.