monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) currently trades at $201.05 with an enterprise value of $15.04B. Our proprietary institutional model rates monday.com Ltd. at 76/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 23.2% vs. historical growth of 36.8% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (76/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 89.3% gross margin and 67.3% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $1.31B balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into MNDY?
The current share price only requires 23.2% 5-year CAGR, well below historical growth of 36.8%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $972.0M | $972.0M | $1.33B | $1.82B | $2.49B | $3.41B | $4.67B |
| Gross Profit | $868.3M | $868.3M | $1.19B | $1.63B | $2.23B | $3.05B | $4.17B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-21.0M | $-21.0M | $-28.7M | $-39.3M | $-53.8M | $-73.6M | $-100.8M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $129.2M | $129.2M | $176.8M | $241.9M | $331.1M | $453.1M | $620.0M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $295.8M | $295.9M | $404.9M | $554.1M | $758.3M | $1.04B | $1.42B |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $166.6M | $166.7M | $228.1M | $312.2M | $427.2M | $584.7M | $800.1M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables Matrix
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| monday.com Ltd. | MNDY | $10.54B | $972.0M | 89.3% | 30.4% | 67.3% | 13.3% | 9.5× |
| ServiceNow, Inc. | NOW | $192.40B | $10.98B | 79.5% | 31.5% | 54.0% | 15.8% | 17.2× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $38.74B | $2.98B | 74.9% | 20.8% | 41.1% | 17.1% | 12.5× |
| Salesforce, Inc. | CRM | $307.82B | $37.90B | 76.8% | 32.4% | 43.4% | 8.4% | 8.0× |
| Datadog, Inc. | DDOG | $45.58B | $2.68B | 81.2% | 28.5% | 55.0% | 20.4% | 16.1× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $54.93B | $3.62B | 74.0% | 26.0% | 54.0% | 34.5% | 14.7× |
| HubSpot, Inc. | HUBS | $38.18B | $4.76B | 83.4% | 16.9% | 38.8% | 10.9% | 7.4× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 27.3% | 48.7% | 16.4% | 13.6× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 9.5× | $9.23B | $10.54B | $201.05 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 7.6× | $7.39B | $8.69B | $165.82 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 6.2× | $6.00B | $7.31B | $139.40 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $4.86B | $6.17B | $117.62 | -47.4% |
Frequently Asked Questions: monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) Valuation
What is monday.com Ltd. (MNDY)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) has a Base Case implied value of $311.77 per share (with a Bear Case of $118.03 and a Bull Case of $635.34), compared to its current price of $201.05. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is monday.com Ltd. (MNDY)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
monday.com Ltd. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 67.3%, combining a 36.8% revenue growth run-rate with a 30.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $972.0M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 48.7%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into MNDY stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $201.05 per share (Enterprise Value of $9.23B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 23.2%, compared to monday.com Ltd.'s historical CAGR of 36.8%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does monday.com Ltd. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 76/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 13.6× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact monday.com Ltd. (MNDY)'s valuation?
monday.com Ltd. recorded $129.2M in TTM stock-based compensation (13.3% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, monday.com Ltd.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.6%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.