UiPath, Inc. (PATH) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
UiPath, Inc. (PATH) currently trades at $272.85 with an enterprise value of $9.77B. Our proprietary institutional model rates UiPath, Inc. at 64/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 72.0% vs. historical growth of 23.9% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of UiPath Inc. (PATH) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
UiPath, Inc. (PATH) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (64/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Severe dilution; heavy SBC shields GAAP losses while diluting common equity
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 82.7% gross margin and 45.2% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $801.8M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Excessive shareholder dilution: SBC represents 25.1% of revenue and 112% of operating cash flow
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into PATH?
The current share price demands 72.0% 5-year CAGR—a +48.2% acceleration over historical run-rate (23.9%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
UiPath, Inc. (PATH) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.43B | $1.43B | $1.77B | $2.19B | $2.72B | $3.36B | $4.17B |
| Gross Profit | $1.18B | $1.18B | $1.46B | $1.81B | $2.25B | $2.78B | $3.45B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-162.6M | $-162.6M | $-201.3M | $-249.3M | $-308.8M | $-382.5M | $-473.7M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $358.2M | $358.1M | $443.5M | $549.3M | $680.3M | $842.6M | $1.04B |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $305.6M | $305.7M | $378.6M | $468.8M | $580.7M | $719.2M | $890.7M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $-52.5M | $-52.5M | $-65.0M | $-80.5M | $-99.7M | $-123.4M | $-152.9M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables Matrix
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UiPath, Inc. | PATH | $46.93B | $1.43B | 82.7% | 21.4% | 45.2% | 25.1% | 32.3× |
| ServiceNow, Inc. | NOW | $192.40B | $10.98B | 79.5% | 31.5% | 54.0% | 15.8% | 17.2× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $38.74B | $2.98B | 74.9% | 20.8% | 41.1% | 17.1% | 12.5× |
| Salesforce, Inc. | CRM | $307.82B | $37.90B | 76.8% | 32.4% | 43.4% | 8.4% | 8.0× |
| Datadog, Inc. | DDOG | $45.58B | $2.68B | 81.2% | 28.5% | 55.0% | 20.4% | 16.1× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $54.93B | $3.62B | 74.0% | 26.0% | 54.0% | 34.5% | 14.7× |
| HubSpot, Inc. | HUBS | $38.18B | $4.76B | 83.4% | 16.9% | 38.8% | 10.9% | 7.4× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 27.3% | 48.7% | 16.4% | 13.6× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 32.3× | $46.13B | $46.93B | $272.85 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 25.8× | $36.90B | $37.70B | $219.21 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 21.0× | $29.98B | $30.79B | $178.98 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $7.15B | $7.95B | $46.22 | -84.5% |
Frequently Asked Questions: UiPath, Inc. (PATH) Valuation
What is UiPath, Inc. (PATH)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, UiPath, Inc. (PATH) has a Base Case implied value of $61.47 per share (with a Bear Case of $27.56 and a Bull Case of $110.83), compared to its current price of $272.85. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is UiPath, Inc. (PATH)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
UiPath, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 45.2%, combining a 23.9% revenue growth run-rate with a 21.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $1.43B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 48.7%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into PATH stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $272.85 per share (Enterprise Value of $46.13B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 72.0%, compared to UiPath, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 23.9%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does UiPath, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
UiPath, Inc. (PATH) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 64/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 13.6× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact UiPath, Inc. (PATH)'s valuation?
UiPath, Inc. recorded $358.2M in TTM stock-based compensation (25.1% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, UiPath, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -0.1%, scoring 4/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.