Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) trades at $57.75 with a market enterprise value of $2.80B and generated $711.6M in TTM revenue and $38.2M in free cash flow (filed 2026-08-04 (period ended 2026-06-30)). Our 5-year DCF model estimates an implied intrinsic value of $1.99 per diluted share ($323.0M DCF enterprise value, Grade: B+ · 74/100 · Quality Software Operator).
SEC 10-K/10-Q DCF teardown of Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY): $711.6M TTM revenue (-8.4% growth), 66.1% GAAP gross margin, 5.4% FCF margin, 2.7% SBC/revenue, and R&D Return Grade D (Faders, $-0.29 new gross profit per $1 prior R&D).
Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) earns a "Pass" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 74/100 (Grade B+). On $711.6M in baseline revenue (-8.4% growth, 66.1% gross margin, 5.4% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $323.0M ($1.99/share vs. $57.75 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, THRY ranks #165 of 174 (Faders · Grade D, -0.29× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Thryv Holdings, Inc. operates at a 66.1% gross margin on $711.6M revenue (6.6 pts below the Software - Application median of 72.7%).
R&D Productivity (Faders · Grade D): Investing 5.0% of revenue in R&D ($39.1M) generates $-0.29 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #165 of 174).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining -8.4% top-line growth with 5.4% FCF margin yields a -3.0% Rule of 40 score (vs. 47.2% cohort median) and $323.0M DCF Enterprise Value.
3-Statement Financial Schedule & 5-Year Horizon
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (66.1% Gross Margin · -8.4% Growth)
| Income Statement Line | Year 1 (2026) | Year 2 (2027) | Year 3 (2028) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $711.6M | $652.1M | $597.5M |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($241.0M) | ($217.5M) | ($196.4M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $470.6M (66.1%) | $434.5M (66.6%) | $401.1M (67.1%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $149.4M | $131.5M | $115.4M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | $207.4M | $182.5M | $160.2M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | $80.7M | $71.0M | $62.3M |
| Operating EBIT | $33.1M (4.7%) | $49.6M (7.6%) | $63.2M (10.6%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $70.9M (10.0%) | $84.3M (12.9%) | $94.9M (15.9%) |
3 Key Underwriting Risks
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Value-Creation Levers · Quantified Statement Impact
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 66.1% to 71.1%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $14.2M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $637.2M.
Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test THRY's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Simulate how deploying Gemini workflow automation and autonomous engineering expands THRY's Gross Margin, FCF Margin, DCF share price, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $57.75).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $9.65 -83% | $10.47 -82% | $11.43 -80% | $12.56 -78% | $13.92 -76% |
| 9.3% | $8.29 -86% | $8.94 -85% | $9.68 -83% | $10.54 -82% | $11.55 -80% |
| 10.0% | $7.17 -88% | $7.69 -87% | $8.28 -86% | $8.95 -85% | $9.73 -83% |
| 10.8% | $6.23 -89% | $6.65 -88% | $7.13 -88% | $7.67 -87% | $8.28 -86% |
| 11.5% | $5.43 -91% | $5.78 -90% | $6.17 -89% | $6.61 -89% | $7.10 -88% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (74/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Strong cash conversion; 100%+ of operating profit turns into free cash
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High cash conversion: 100%+ of operating income converted to free cash flow
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 2.7% of revenue
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Audited R&D Intensity is 5.0% of revenue with a -0.29× incremental gross profit return per R&D dollar. Under your current Stage 1 (-8.4% CAGR / 66.1% GM) assumptions, THRY projects to -1.46× R&D Return (Grade D · Faders).
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into THRY?
The current share price demands 47.9% 5-year CAGR (51.0% net of SBC & dilution)—a +56.3% acceleration over historical run-rate (-8.4%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (2.7% of revenue) and annual share dilution (4.7%/yr). Accounting for both requires 51.0% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $57.75/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $711.6M | $711.6M | $652.0M | $597.5M | $547.4M | $501.6M | $459.6M |
| Gross Profit | $470.6M | $470.6M | $431.3M | $395.2M | $362.1M | $331.8M | $304.0M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $33.1M | $33.1M | $30.3M | $27.8M | $25.5M | $23.3M | $21.4M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $19.0M | $19.1M | $17.5M | $16.0M | $14.7M | $13.4M | $12.3M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $38.2M | $38.1M | $34.9M | $32.0M | $29.3M | $26.9M | $24.6M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $19.1M | $19.1M | $17.5M | $16.0M | $14.7M | $13.4M | $12.3M |
Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 7.1 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thryv Holdings, Inc. | THRY | $2.56B | $711.6M | 66.1% | 5.4% | -3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9× |
| Grab Holdings Limited | GRAB | $20.18B | $2.80B | 42.0% | 27.7% | 84.0% | 10.0% | 6.3× |
| Figma, Inc. | FIG | $18.07B | $749.0M | 88.3% | -9.2% | 39.1% | 126.5% | 23.5× |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | $71.73B | $11.24B | 86.6% | 25.8% | 70.2% | 4.4% | 5.9× |
| ServiceTitan, Inc. | TTAN | $9.97B | $771.9M | 64.9% | 2.0% | 30.5% | 21.2% | 12.5× |
| InterDigital, Inc. | IDCC | $8.65B | $868.5M | 80.5% | 30.6% | 55.3% | 5.3% | 9.9× |
| OPEN TEXT CORP | OTEX | $8.11B | $5.30B | 63.5% | 13.0% | 23.8% | 2.0% | 2.6× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 72.7% | 19.4% | 47.2% | 7.6% | 8.1× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.9× | $2.80B | $2.56B | $57.75 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 3.1× | $2.24B | $2.00B | $45.14 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.6× | $1.82B | $1.58B | $35.69 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $3.56B | $3.32B | $74.92 | +27.2% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) Valuation
What is Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) has a Base Case implied value of $1.99 per share (with a Bear Case of $0.48 and a Bull Case of $3.17), compared to its current price of $57.75. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Thryv Holdings, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of -3.0%, combining a -8.4% revenue growth run-rate with a 5.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $711.6M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into THRY stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $57.75 per share (Enterprise Value of $2.80B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 47.9%, compared to Thryv Holdings, Inc.'s historical CAGR of -8.4%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
What is Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?
On the Golden Door Software R&D Return Benchmark, Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) is ranked #165 out of 174 scored software peers, earning a Grade D in the "Faders" quadrant. Thryv Holdings, Inc. invests 5.0% of FY revenue into R&D ($39.1M) and generated $-0.29 of incremental gross profit per prior-year R&D dollar.
How does Thryv Holdings, Inc. compare to Software - Application peers?
Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 74/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Thryv Holdings, Inc. (THRY)'s valuation?
Thryv Holdings, Inc. recorded $19.0M in TTM stock-based compensation (2.7% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Thryv Holdings, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.8%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.