Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 251 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth (-$345.8M PV of FCF + -$1.34B PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $362.5M | $484.5M | $647.6M | $865.6M | $1.16B | $1.55B |
| Operating EBIT | -$25.9M | -$34.6M | -$46.2M | -$61.8M | -$82.6M | -$110.4M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -$37.1M (-10%) | -$49.6M (-10%) | -$66.3M (-10%) | -$88.6M (-10%) | -$118.5M (-10%) | -$158.4M (-10%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | -$33.7M | -$41.0M | -$49.8M | -$60.5M | -$73.6M | -$89.4M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | -$17.11 | -$18.22 | -$19.54 | -$21.12 | -$23.05 |
| 9.0% | -$14.85 | -$15.65 | -$16.57 | -$17.65 | -$18.92 |
| 10.0% | -$13.14 | -$13.73 | -$14.41 | -$15.18 | -$16.06 |
| 11.0% | -$11.79 | -$12.25 | -$12.75 | -$13.33 | -$13.98 |
| 12.0% | -$10.70 | -$11.06 | -$11.46 | -$11.90 | -$12.39 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (53.7% Gross Margin · 33.7% Growth · 2.6% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | FY25ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $135.2M | $362.5M | $362.5M | $362.5M | $484.5M | $647.6M |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | 7.3% | 168.2% | 0.0% | 33.7% | 33.7% | 33.7% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($71.0M) | ($168.0M) | ($168.0M) | ($168.0M) | ($222.1M) | ($293.6M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $64.2M (47.5%) | $194.5M (53.7%) | $194.5M (53.7%) | $194.5M (53.7%) | $262.4M (54.2%) | $354.0M (54.7%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $16.1M | $23.3M | $29.8M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $132.8M | $170.4M | $218.3M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $71.5M | $91.8M | $117.6M |
| Operating EBIT | -$6.9M (-5.1%) | -$25.9M (-7.1%) | -$25.9M (-7.1%) | -$25.9M (-7.1%) | -$23.0M (-4.8%) | -$11.7M (-1.8%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | $7.9M (2.2%) | $22.1M (4.6%) | $48.7M (7.5%) |
PowerFleet, Inc. (AIOT) earns a "Pass" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 44/100 (Grade C). On $362.5M in baseline revenue (33.7% growth, 53.7% gross margin, -10.2% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of -$1.69B (-$14.41/share vs. $5.41 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, AIOT ranks #2 of 167 (Harvesters · Grade AAA, 3.23× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: PowerFleet, Inc. operates at a 53.7% gross margin on $362.5M revenue (25.6 pts below the Hardware & Equipment median of 79.2%).
R&D Productivity (Harvesters · Grade AAA): Investing 4.1% of revenue in R&D ($18.4M) generates $3.23 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #2 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 33.7% top-line growth with -10.2% FCF margin yields a 23.4% Rule of 40 score (vs. 43.6% cohort median) and -$1.69B DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
AIOT: Harvester, AAA
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 14.6% Growth · 79.2% Gross Margin · 29.0% Unlevered FCF · 19.5% GAAP FCF · 43.6% Rule of 40 · 13.1× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AIOTPowerFleet, Inc.Subject | $362.5M | 33.7% | 53.7% | -10.2% | -12.8% | 23.4% | 2.6× | Active |
Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | $6.13B | 15.4% | 86.0% | 28.8% | 19.9% | 44.1% | 15.6× | |
SYNOPSYS INC | $9.42B | 13.8% | 72.4% | 29.2% | 19.1% | 43.0% | 10.7× | |
| Peer Set Median (2 Peers) | $7.77B | 14.6% | 79.2% | 29.0% | 19.5% | 43.6% | 13.1× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 53.7% to 58.7%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $7.3M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $677.0M.
Weak cash conversion, substantial dilution drag, or constrained financial flexibility.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Leveraged balance sheet coupled with cash burn; heightened refinancing risk
The current share price only requires 8.7% 5-year CAGR (11.2% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 33.7%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 2.7× | $962.3M | $724.0M | $5.41 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 2.1× | $769.8M | $531.5M | $3.97 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.7× | $625.5M | $387.2M | $2.89 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.81B | $1.57B | $11.76 | +88.4% |