Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 216 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($152.8M PV of FCF + $577.1M PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $333.8M | $438.5M | $576.0M | $756.6M | $993.7M | $1.31B |
| Operating EBIT | -$44.6M | -$58.6M | -$77.0M | -$101.2M | -$132.9M | -$174.5M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $17.4M (5%) | $22.8M (5%) | $30.0M (5%) | $39.4M (5%) | $51.8M (5%) | $68.0M (5%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $15.8M | $18.9M | $22.5M | $26.9M | $32.1M | $38.4M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $9.16 | $9.77 | $10.49 | $11.35 | $12.41 |
| 9.0% | $7.92 | $8.36 | $8.86 | $9.45 | $10.15 |
| 10.0% | $6.98 | $7.31 | $7.68 | $8.10 | $8.58 |
| 11.0% | $6.24 | $6.49 | $6.77 | $7.08 | $7.44 |
| 12.0% | $5.65 | $5.84 | $6.06 | $6.30 | $6.57 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (58.9% Gross Margin · 31.4% Growth · 17.8% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY22ASEC 10-K | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $204.3M | $264.8M | $333.8M | $333.8M | $438.5M | $576.0M |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | 34.3% | 29.6% | 26.1% | 31.4% | 31.4% | 31.4% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($95.9M) | ($120.7M) | ($137.2M) | ($137.2M) | ($178.0M) | ($231.0M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $108.3M (53.0%) | $144.1M (54.4%) | $196.6M (58.9%) | $196.6M (58.9%) | $260.5M (59.4%) | $345.0M (59.9%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $96.2M | $121.3M | $152.7M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $94.3M | $118.9M | $149.7M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $50.8M | $64.0M | $80.6M |
| Operating EBIT | -$70.2M (-34.4%) | -$63.7M (-24.1%) | -$44.6M (-13.4%) | -$44.6M (-13.4%) | -$43.7M (-10.0%) | -$37.9M (-6.6%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | -$33.9M (-10.2%) | -$29.7M (-6.8%) | -$19.5M (-3.4%) |
ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC. (ALKT) earns a "Watch" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 53/100 (Grade B). On $333.8M in baseline revenue (31.4% growth, 58.9% gross margin, 5.2% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $729.9M ($7.68/share vs. $23.67 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, ALKT ranks #60 of 167 (Compounders · Grade BBB, 0.62× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC. operates at a 58.9% gross margin on $333.8M revenue (1.2 pts below the Financial Technology median of 60.1%).
R&D Productivity (Compounders · Grade BBB): Investing 26.7% of revenue in R&D ($118.4M) generates $0.62 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #60 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 31.4% top-line growth with 5.2% FCF margin yields a 36.6% Rule of 40 score (vs. 37.3% cohort median) and $729.9M DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
ALKT: not ranked (stale)
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 12.4% Growth · 60.1% Gross Margin · 24.8% Unlevered FCF · 17.5% GAAP FCF · 37.3% Rule of 40 · 4.6× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALKTALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC.Subject | $333.8M | 31.4% | 58.9% | 5.2% | -12.6% | 36.6% | 7.2× | Active |
FISERV INC | $20.46B | 8.3% | 60.8% | 24.8% | 23.0% | 33.1% | 2.9× | |
Q2 Holdings, Inc. | $870.3M | 12.4% | 58.4% | 26.8% | 17.5% | 39.1% | 4.6× | |
nCino, Inc. | $540.7M | 27.6% | 60.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 37.3% | 5.8× | |
| Peer Set Median (3 Peers) | $870.3M | 12.4% | 60.1% | 24.8% | 17.5% | 37.3% | 4.6× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 58.9% to 63.9%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $12.3M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $602.6M.
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
The current share price demands 68.9% 5-year CAGR (67.8% net of SBC & dilution)—a +37.6% acceleration over historical run-rate (31.4%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 7.2× | $2.41B | $2.48B | $23.67 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 5.8× | $1.93B | $2.00B | $19.08 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 4.7× | $1.57B | $1.64B | $15.64 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.67B | $1.75B | $16.62 | -30.7% |