Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 251 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($485.5M PV of FCF + $1.06B PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $3.75B | $3.71B | $3.68B | $3.64B | $3.61B | $3.57B |
| Operating EBIT | $181.9M | $180.1M | $178.4M | $176.6M | $174.9M | $173.2M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $131.7M (4%) | $130.4M (4%) | $129.1M (4%) | $127.8M (4%) | $126.6M (4%) | $125.3M (4%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $119.7M | $107.7M | $97.0M | $87.3M | $78.6M | $70.7M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $29.34 | $32.52 | $36.27 | $40.77 | $46.27 |
| 9.0% | $22.82 | $25.10 | $27.72 | $30.78 | $34.39 |
| 10.0% | $17.84 | $19.53 | $21.44 | $23.63 | $26.16 |
| 11.0% | $13.90 | $15.19 | $16.64 | $18.27 | $20.12 |
| 12.0% | $10.70 | $11.72 | $12.85 | $14.10 | $15.50 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (24.5% Gross Margin · -1.0% Growth · 0.3% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY22ASEC 10-K | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.46B | $3.76B | $3.75B | $3.75B | $3.71B | $3.68B |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | -11.4% | 8.7% | -0.3% | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($2.70B) | ($2.88B) | ($2.83B) | ($2.83B) | ($2.78B) | ($2.74B) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $757.3M (21.9%) | $876.2M (23.3%) | $920.0M (24.5%) | $920.1M (24.5%) | $929.7M (25.0%) | $939.0M (25.5%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $93.6M | $178.3M | $169.2M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $418.9M | $398.2M | $377.9M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $225.6M | $214.4M | $203.5M |
| Operating EBIT | -$211.7M (-6.1%) | $86.9M (2.3%) | $182.1M (4.8%) | $182.1M (4.8%) | $138.8M (3.7%) | $188.5M (5.1%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | $302.1M (8.1%) | $257.7M (6.9%) | $306.2M (8.3%) |
DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc (DBD) earns a "Pass" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 63/100 (Grade B). On $3.75B in baseline revenue (-1.0% growth, 24.5% gross margin, 3.5% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $1.55B ($21.44/share vs. $65.35 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, DBD ranks #90 of 167 (Faders · Grade B, 0.44× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: DIEBOLD NIXDORF, Inc operates at a 24.5% gross margin on $3.75B revenue (50.6 pts below the Software - Application median of 75.1%).
R&D Productivity (Faders · Grade B): Investing 2.3% of revenue in R&D ($86.7M) generates $0.44 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #90 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining -1.0% top-line growth with 3.5% FCF margin yields a 2.5% Rule of 40 score (vs. 59.0% cohort median) and $1.55B DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
DBD: Fader, B
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 35.8% Growth · 75.1% Gross Margin · 21.9% Unlevered FCF · 14.4% GAAP FCF · 59.0% Rule of 40 · 6.6× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DBDDIEBOLD NIXDORF, IncSubject | $3.75B | -1.0% | 24.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.8× | Active |
Grab Holdings Limited | $2.80B | 56.3% | 42.0% | 27.7% | 17.7% | 84.0% | 6.3× | |
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | $11.24B | 44.5% | 86.6% | 25.8% | 21.3% | 70.2% | 5.9× | |
Figma, Inc. | $1.28B | 44.6% | 79.1% | 18.1% | -112.4% | 62.7% | 8.8× | |
InterDigital, Inc. | $868.5M | 24.7% | 80.5% | 30.6% | 25.3% | 55.3% | 9.9× | |
OPEN TEXT CORP | $5.30B | 10.8% | 63.5% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 23.8% | 2.6× | |
ServiceTitan, Inc. | $1.06B | 27.1% | 71.1% | 12.8% | -7.7% | 40.0% | 6.8× | |
| Peer Set Median (6 Peers) | $2.04B | 35.8% | 75.1% | 21.9% | 14.4% | 59.0% | 6.6× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 24.5% to 29.5%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $75.0M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $3.90B.
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Solid cash generation with minor working capital absorption
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
The current share price only requires -17.0% 5-year CAGR (-16.8% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of -1.0%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 0.8× | $3.18B | $2.43B | $65.35 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 0.7× | $2.55B | $1.80B | $48.25 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 0.6× | $2.07B | $1.32B | $35.42 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $18.76B | $18.00B | $483.67 | +489.1% |