Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 251 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($1.62B PV of FCF + $5.04B PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $1.48B | $1.75B | $2.06B | $2.42B | $2.86B | $3.36B |
| Operating EBIT | -$54.9M | -$64.7M | -$76.2M | -$89.7M | -$105.7M | -$124.5M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $261.8M (18%) | $308.4M (18%) | $363.3M (18%) | $428.0M (18%) | $504.1M (18%) | $593.9M (18%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $238.0M | $254.9M | $273.0M | $292.3M | $313.0M | $335.2M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $78.67 | $84.07 | $90.45 | $98.11 | $107.47 |
| 9.0% | $67.71 | $71.57 | $76.03 | $81.23 | $87.38 |
| 10.0% | $59.34 | $62.22 | $65.48 | $69.20 | $73.50 |
| 11.0% | $52.75 | $54.96 | $57.42 | $60.20 | $63.34 |
| 12.0% | $47.43 | $49.17 | $51.08 | $53.21 | $55.59 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (74.4% Gross Margin · 17.8% Growth · 17.4% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | FY25ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.07B | $1.27B | $1.48B | $1.48B | $1.75B | $2.06B |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | — | 18.6% | 17.0% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($296.6M) | ($330.1M) | ($379.9M) | ($379.9M) | ($438.8M) | ($506.6M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $772.4M (72.3%) | $937.2M (74.0%) | $1.10B (74.4%) | $1.10B (74.4%) | $1.31B (74.9%) | $1.55B (75.4%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $365.8M | $413.6M | $467.0M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $515.2M | $582.6M | $657.7M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $277.4M | $313.7M | $354.2M |
| Operating EBIT | -$219.2M (-20.5%) | -$129.9M (-10.3%) | -$54.9M (-3.7%) | -$54.9M (-3.7%) | -$1.4M (-0.1%) | $73.0M (3.5%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | -$7.5M (-0.5%) | $54.5M (3.1%) | $138.8M (6.7%) |
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) earns a "Pass" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 65/100 (Grade B+). On $1.48B in baseline revenue (17.8% growth, 74.4% gross margin, 17.7% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $6.65B ($65.48/share vs. $74.31 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, ESTC ranks #61 of 167 (Compounders · Grade BBB, 0.60× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Elastic N.V. operates at a 74.4% gross margin on $1.48B revenue (0.9 pts below the Data, Observability & Cloud Infrastructure median of 75.3%).
R&D Productivity (Compounders · Grade BBB): Investing 26.0% of revenue in R&D ($451.9M) generates $0.60 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #61 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 17.8% top-line growth with 17.7% FCF margin yields a 35.5% Rule of 40 score (vs. 44.1% cohort median) and $6.65B DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
ESTC: Compounder, BBB
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 23.8% Growth · 75.3% Gross Margin · 21.4% Unlevered FCF · 1.4% GAAP FCF · 44.1% Rule of 40 · 18.9× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ESTCElastic N.V.Subject | $1.48B | 17.8% | 74.4% | 17.6% | 0.3% | 35.5% | 5.1× | Active |
Snowflake Inc. | $5.43B | 40.0% | 67.0% | 22.0% | -8.2% | 62.0% | 20.9× | |
MongoDB | $2.01B | 25.0% | 73.3% | 6.0% | -18.6% | 31.0% | 16.8× | |
Cloudflare | $1.67B | 30.8% | 77.3% | 11.7% | -8.6% | 42.5% | 42.5× | |
Nutanix, Inc. | $2.54B | 16.1% | 86.8% | 29.6% | 15.7% | 45.7% | 5.7× | |
Akamai Technologies, Inc. | $3.99B | 5.0% | 59.4% | 20.9% | 11.0% | 25.9% | 4.2× | |
Palantir Technologies Inc. | $2.87B | 22.6% | 80.3% | 39.8% | 15.7% | 62.5% | 133.8× | |
| Peer Set Median (6 Peers) | $2.70B | 23.8% | 75.3% | 21.4% | 1.4% | 44.1% | 18.9× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 74.4% to 79.4%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $44.2M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $2.16B.
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Market implies 21.2% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (46.3% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 5.1× | $7.57B | $7.70B | $74.31 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 4.1× | $6.06B | $6.19B | $59.70 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.3× | $4.92B | $5.05B | $48.75 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $7.42B | $7.55B | $72.82 | -2.0% |