Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 251 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($3.94B PV of FCF + $10.95B PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $1.99B | $2.21B | $2.45B | $2.71B | $3.01B | $3.34B |
| Operating EBIT | $924.8M | $1.03B | $1.14B | $1.26B | $1.40B | $1.55B |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $769.9M (39%) | $853.7M (39%) | $946.7M (39%) | $1.05B (39%) | $1.16B (39%) | $1.29B (39%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $699.9M | $705.5M | $711.3M | $717.0M | $722.8M | $728.7M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $616.67 | $666.86 | $726.17 | $797.34 | $884.33 |
| 9.0% | $514.36 | $550.29 | $591.75 | $640.12 | $697.28 |
| 10.0% | $436.25 | $462.99 | $493.30 | $527.95 | $567.92 |
| 11.0% | $374.68 | $395.20 | $418.13 | $443.92 | $473.16 |
| 12.0% | $324.94 | $341.06 | $358.87 | $378.66 | $400.78 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (82.2% Gross Margin · 10.9% Growth · 7.9% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | FY25ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.51B | $1.72B | $1.99B | $1.99B | $2.21B | $2.45B |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | 9.9% | 13.5% | 15.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($311.1M) | ($348.2M) | ($353.7M) | ($353.8M) | ($381.3M) | ($410.5M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $1.20B (79.5%) | $1.37B (79.7%) | $1.64B (82.2%) | $1.64B (82.2%) | $1.83B (82.7%) | $2.04B (83.2%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $188.3M | $200.5M | $213.1M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $340.5M | $362.5M | $385.2M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $183.4M | $195.2M | $207.4M |
| Operating EBIT | $642.8M (42.5%) | $733.6M (42.7%) | $924.9M (46.5%) | $924.9M (46.5%) | $1.07B (48.4%) | $1.23B (50.3%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | $988.6M (49.6%) | $1.14B (51.6%) | $1.31B (53.5%) |
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) earns a "Watch" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 76/100 (Grade A). On $1.99B in baseline revenue (10.9% growth, 82.2% gross margin, 38.7% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $14.90B ($493.30/share vs. $1.65K market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, FICO ranks #10 of 167 (Harvesters · Grade AAA, 1.56× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Fair Isaac Corporation operates at a 82.2% gross margin on $1.99B revenue (+6.1 pts above the Software & Cloud Services median of 76.1%).
R&D Productivity (Harvesters · Grade AAA): Investing 9.5% of revenue in R&D ($188.3M) generates $1.56 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #10 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 10.9% top-line growth with 38.7% FCF margin yields a 49.6% Rule of 40 score (vs. 50.5% cohort median) and $14.90B DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
FICO: Harvester, AAA
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 23.5% Growth · 76.1% Gross Margin · 28.9% Unlevered FCF · 10.4% GAAP FCF · 50.5% Rule of 40 · 6.3× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FICOFair Isaac CorporationSubject | $1.99B | 10.9% | 82.2% | 38.7% | 30.8% | 49.6% | 21.6× | Active |
ServiceNow | $15.43B | 22.5% | 73.1% | 30.8% | 15.7% | 53.3% | 7.6× | |
Workday, Inc. | $10.15B | 16.8% | 75.0% | 28.0% | 11.8% | 44.8% | 5.0× | |
Salesforce | $43.94B | 11.9% | 77.3% | 34.5% | 26.1% | 46.4% | 5.0× | |
Datadog | $3.97B | 35.1% | 79.5% | 29.8% | 9.1% | 64.9% | 24.8× | |
Snowflake Inc. | $5.43B | 40.0% | 67.0% | 22.0% | -8.2% | 62.0% | 20.9× | |
Hubspot | $3.45B | 24.6% | 83.3% | 23.1% | 8.2% | 47.7% | 3.2× | |
| Peer Set Median (6 Peers) | $7.79B | 23.5% | 76.1% | 28.9% | 10.4% | 50.5% | 6.3× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 82.2% to 87.2%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $39.8M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $2.58B.
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Solid cash generation with minor working capital absorption
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
The current share price demands 39.6% 5-year CAGR (44.2% net of SBC & dilution)—a +28.8% acceleration over historical run-rate (10.9%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 21.6× | $43.02B | $40.08B | $1,653.48 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 17.3× | $34.42B | $31.47B | $1,298.52 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 14.0× | $27.96B | $25.02B | $1,032.30 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $9.95B | $7.01B | $289.35 | -76.9% |