Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 216 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($1.59B PV of FCF + $4.57B PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $1.20B | $1.36B | $1.53B | $1.72B | $1.95B | $2.19B |
| Operating EBIT | $41.1M | $46.4M | $52.3M | $59.0M | $66.5M | $75.0M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $295.1M (25%) | $332.8M (25%) | $375.3M (25%) | $423.3M (25%) | $477.4M (25%) | $538.4M (25%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $268.3M | $275.0M | $282.0M | $289.1M | $296.4M | $303.9M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $86.90 | $92.87 | $99.92 | $108.39 | $118.73 |
| 9.0% | $74.75 | $79.02 | $83.95 | $89.70 | $96.50 |
| 10.0% | $65.47 | $68.65 | $72.26 | $76.38 | $81.13 |
| 11.0% | $58.16 | $60.60 | $63.33 | $66.40 | $69.87 |
| 12.0% | $52.26 | $54.18 | $56.30 | $58.65 | $61.28 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (62.5% Gross Margin · 12.8% Growth · 13.4% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | FY25ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $905.3M | $980.5M | $1.20B | $1.20B | $1.36B | $1.53B |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | 11.4% | 8.3% | 22.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.8% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($447.1M) | ($397.1M) | ($450.4M) | ($450.4M) | ($501.2M) | ($557.6M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $458.2M (50.6%) | $583.4M (59.5%) | $752.1M (62.5%) | $752.0M (62.5%) | $854.9M (63.0%) | $971.8M (63.5%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $296.2M | $320.6M | $346.6M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $269.6M | $291.9M | $315.5M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $145.2M | $157.2M | $169.9M |
| Operating EBIT | -$149.5M (-16.5%) | -$52.6M (-5.4%) | $41.1M (3.4%) | $41.1M (3.4%) | $85.2M (6.3%) | $139.9M (9.2%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | $79.5M (6.6%) | $128.6M (9.5%) | $188.8M (12.3%) |
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) earns a "Watch" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 66/100 (Grade B+). On $1.20B in baseline revenue (12.8% growth, 62.5% gross margin, 24.5% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $6.16B ($72.26/share vs. $185.94 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, GWRE ranks #50 of 167 (Compounders · Grade A, 0.66× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Guidewire Software, Inc. operates at a 62.5% gross margin on $1.20B revenue (4.8 pts below the Insurance Industry Software median of 67.3%).
R&D Productivity (Compounders · Grade A): Investing 23.1% of revenue in R&D ($340.1M) generates $0.66 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #50 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 12.8% top-line growth with 24.5% FCF margin yields a 37.3% Rule of 40 score (vs. 38.9% cohort median) and $6.16B DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
GWRE: Compounder, A
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 14.1% Growth · 67.3% Gross Margin · 17.6% Unlevered FCF · 13.0% GAAP FCF · 38.9% Rule of 40 · 10.4× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GWREGuidewire Software, Inc.Subject | $1.20B | 12.8% | 62.5% | 24.5% | 11.1% | 37.3% | 13.2× | Active |
Microsoft Corporation | $346.44B | 13.7% | 67.7% | 17.3% | 13.7% | 31.1% | 11.4× | |
Oracle | $71.78B | 12.2% | 65.8% | -40.0% | -46.7% | -27.8% | 5.3× | |
SAP SE | $34.18B | 7.6% | 73.0% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 20.5% | 8.3× | |
SHOPIFY INC. | $8.88B | 31.9% | 50.4% | 18.0% | 13.1% | 49.9% | 22.7× | |
INTUIT INC. | $18.83B | 14.5% | 80.8% | 32.3% | 21.9% | 46.8% | 9.4× | |
Snowflake Inc. | $5.43B | 40.0% | 67.0% | 22.0% | -8.2% | 62.0% | 20.9× | |
| Peer Set Median (6 Peers) | $26.50B | 14.1% | 67.3% | 17.6% | 13.0% | 38.9% | 10.4× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 62.5% to 67.5%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $24.0M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $1.61B.
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Manageable debt load covered by recurring positive free cash flow
The current share price demands 38.4% 5-year CAGR (50.6% net of SBC & dilution)—a +25.6% acceleration over historical run-rate (12.8%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 13.2× | $15.83B | $15.81B | $185.94 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 10.5× | $12.66B | $12.64B | $148.71 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 8.6× | $10.29B | $10.27B | $120.79 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $6.01B | $6.00B | $70.52 | -62.0% |