Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 251 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($1.53B PV of FCF + $7.07B PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $1.25B | $1.87B | $2.79B | $4.18B | $6.25B | $9.34B |
| Operating EBIT | -$190.0M | -$284.1M | -$424.8M | -$635.3M | -$949.9M | -$1.42B |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $111.4M (9%) | $166.6M (9%) | $249.1M (9%) | $372.5M (9%) | $557.1M (9%) | $833.0M (9%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $101.3M | $137.7M | $187.2M | $254.5M | $345.9M | $470.2M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $18.68 | $20.05 | $21.68 | $23.64 | $26.02 |
| 9.0% | $15.90 | $16.89 | $18.03 | $19.36 | $20.92 |
| 10.0% | $13.79 | $14.53 | $15.36 | $16.31 | $17.41 |
| 11.0% | $12.14 | $12.70 | $13.33 | $14.04 | $14.84 |
| 12.0% | $10.80 | $11.25 | $11.74 | $12.28 | $12.89 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (76.1% Gross Margin · 49.5% Growth · 22.2% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | FY25ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $652.5M | $937.4M | $1.25B | $1.25B | $1.87B | $2.79B |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | 52.3% | 43.6% | 33.3% | 49.5% | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($182.7M) | ($247.0M) | ($298.3M) | ($298.3M) | ($436.7M) | ($639.1M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $469.9M (72.0%) | $690.4M (73.7%) | $950.9M (76.1%) | $950.9M (76.1%) | $1.43B (76.6%) | $2.15B (77.1%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $299.7M | $430.2M | $616.5M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $546.7M | $784.8M | $1.12B |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $294.4M | $422.6M | $605.6M |
| Operating EBIT | -$258.4M (-39.6%) | -$249.9M (-26.7%) | -$190.0M (-15.2%) | -$190.0M (-15.2%) | -$206.5M (-11.1%) | -$192.8M (-6.9%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | -$150.0M (-12.0%) | -$146.7M (-7.8%) | -$103.4M (-3.7%) |
Samsara Inc. (IOT) earns a "Watch" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 64/100 (Grade B+). On $1.25B in baseline revenue (49.5% growth, 76.1% gross margin, 8.9% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $8.60B ($15.36/share vs. $34.28 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, IOT ranks #26 of 167 (Compounders · Grade AA, 0.97× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Samsara Inc. operates at a 76.1% gross margin on $1.25B revenue (0.0 pts below the Software & Cloud Services median of 76.1%).
R&D Productivity (Compounders · Grade AA): Investing 21.3% of revenue in R&D ($344.6M) generates $0.97 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #26 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 49.5% top-line growth with 8.9% FCF margin yields a 58.5% Rule of 40 score (vs. 50.5% cohort median) and $8.60B DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
IOT: Compounder, AA
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 23.5% Growth · 76.1% Gross Margin · 28.9% Unlevered FCF · 10.4% GAAP FCF · 50.5% Rule of 40 · 6.3× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IOTSamsara Inc.Subject | $1.25B | 49.5% | 76.1% | 8.9% | -13.3% | 58.5% | 15.5× | Active |
ServiceNow | $15.43B | 22.5% | 73.1% | 30.8% | 15.7% | 53.3% | 7.6× | |
Workday, Inc. | $10.15B | 16.8% | 75.0% | 28.0% | 11.8% | 44.8% | 5.0× | |
Salesforce | $43.94B | 11.9% | 77.3% | 34.5% | 26.1% | 46.4% | 5.0× | |
Datadog | $3.97B | 35.1% | 79.5% | 29.8% | 9.1% | 64.9% | 24.8× | |
Snowflake Inc. | $5.43B | 40.0% | 67.0% | 22.0% | -8.2% | 62.0% | 20.9× | |
Hubspot | $3.45B | 24.6% | 83.3% | 23.1% | 8.2% | 47.7% | 3.2× | |
| Peer Set Median (6 Peers) | $7.79B | 23.5% | 76.1% | 28.9% | 10.4% | 50.5% | 6.3× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 76.1% to 81.1%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $25.0M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $2.91B.
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Severe dilution; heavy SBC shields GAAP losses while diluting common equity
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
The current share price demands 77.1% 5-year CAGR (97.6% net of SBC & dilution)—a +27.6% acceleration over historical run-rate (49.5%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 15.5× | $19.38B | $19.53B | $34.28 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 12.4× | $15.51B | $15.65B | $27.48 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 10.1× | $12.60B | $12.75B | $22.37 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $6.25B | $6.39B | $11.22 | -67.8% |