Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 216 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($421.7M PV of FCF + $1.52B PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $540.7M | $689.6M | $879.6M | $1.12B | $1.43B | $1.83B |
| Operating EBIT | -$18.1M | -$23.1M | -$29.5M | -$37.6M | -$47.9M | -$61.1M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $52.9M (10%) | $67.5M (10%) | $86.1M (10%) | $109.8M (10%) | $140.1M (10%) | $178.7M (10%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $48.1M | $55.8M | $64.7M | $75.0M | $87.0M | $100.9M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $18.70 | $20.15 | $21.87 | $23.93 | $26.45 |
| 9.0% | $15.75 | $16.80 | $18.00 | $19.40 | $21.05 |
| 10.0% | $13.51 | $14.29 | $15.16 | $16.17 | $17.33 |
| 11.0% | $11.75 | $12.34 | $13.01 | $13.75 | $14.60 |
| 12.0% | $10.33 | $10.79 | $11.31 | $11.88 | $12.52 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (60.1% Gross Margin · 27.6% Growth · 0.0% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | FY25ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $273.9M | $476.5M | $540.7M | $540.7M | $689.6M | $879.6M |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | 0.0% | 74.0% | 13.4% | 27.6% | 27.6% | 27.6% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($111.4M) | ($191.5M) | ($215.9M) | ($215.9M) | ($271.9M) | ($342.4M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $162.5M (59.3%) | $285.1M (59.8%) | $324.8M (60.1%) | $324.8M (60.1%) | $417.7M (60.6%) | $537.2M (61.1%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $129.4M | $158.5M | $193.7M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $138.8M | $169.9M | $207.7M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $74.7M | $91.5M | $111.8M |
| Operating EBIT | -$71.4M (-26.1%) | -$39.5M (-8.3%) | -$18.1M (-3.4%) | -$18.1M (-3.4%) | -$2.2M (-0.3%) | $23.9M (2.7%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | $18.2M (3.4%) | $44.2M (6.4%) | $83.1M (9.4%) |
nCino, Inc. (NCNO) earns a "Watch" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 58/100 (Grade B). On $540.7M in baseline revenue (27.6% growth, 60.1% gross margin, 9.8% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $1.94B ($15.16/share vs. $25.64 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, NCNO ranks #120 of 167 (Burners · Grade CC, 0.27× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: nCino, Inc. operates at a 60.1% gross margin on $540.7M revenue (+1.2 pts above the Financial Technology median of 58.9%).
R&D Productivity (Burners · Grade CC): Investing 21.4% of revenue in R&D ($127.5M) generates $0.27 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #120 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 27.6% top-line growth with 9.8% FCF margin yields a 37.3% Rule of 40 score (vs. 36.6% cohort median) and $1.94B DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
NCNO: Burner, CC
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 12.4% Growth · 58.9% Gross Margin · 24.8% Unlevered FCF · 17.5% GAAP FCF · 36.6% Rule of 40 · 4.6× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NCNOnCino, Inc.Subject | $540.7M | 27.6% | 60.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 37.3% | 5.8× | Active |
FISERV INC | $20.46B | 8.3% | 60.8% | 24.8% | 23.0% | 33.1% | 2.9× | |
Q2 Holdings, Inc. | $870.3M | 12.4% | 58.4% | 26.8% | 17.5% | 39.1% | 4.6× | |
ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC. | $333.8M | 31.4% | 58.9% | 5.2% | -12.6% | 36.6% | 7.2× | |
| Peer Set Median (3 Peers) | $870.3M | 12.4% | 58.9% | 24.8% | 17.5% | 36.6% | 4.6× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 60.1% to 65.1%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $10.8M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $921.5M.
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
The current share price demands 41.5% 5-year CAGR (41.5% net of SBC & dilution)—a +14.0% acceleration over historical run-rate (27.6%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 5.8× | $3.15B | $2.97B | $25.64 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 4.7× | $2.52B | $2.34B | $20.20 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.8× | $2.05B | $1.87B | $16.12 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $2.70B | $2.52B | $21.77 | -14.2% |