Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 167 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth (-$1.45B PV of FCF + -$4.63B PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $3.97B | $4.74B | $5.66B | $6.76B | $8.07B | $9.64B |
| Operating EBIT | -$99.7M | -$119.1M | -$142.2M | -$169.7M | -$202.7M | -$242.0M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -$224.8M (-6%) | -$268.5M (-6%) | -$320.6M (-6%) | -$382.7M (-6%) | -$457.0M (-6%) | -$545.6M (-6%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | -$204.4M | -$221.9M | -$240.8M | -$261.4M | -$283.8M | -$308.0M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | -$40.23 | -$41.97 | -$44.03 | -$46.50 | -$49.52 |
| 9.0% | -$36.69 | -$37.94 | -$39.38 | -$41.06 | -$43.04 |
| 10.0% | -$33.99 | -$34.92 | -$35.97 | -$37.17 | -$38.56 |
| 11.0% | -$31.87 | -$32.58 | -$33.37 | -$34.27 | -$35.29 |
| 12.0% | -$30.15 | -$30.71 | -$31.33 | -$32.02 | -$32.78 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (55.4% Gross Margin · 19.4% Growth · 0.1% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY22ASEC 10-K | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.79B | $3.34B | $3.97B | $3.97B | $4.74B | $5.66B |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | — | 19.9% | 18.9% | 19.4% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($1.39B) | ($1.51B) | ($1.77B) | ($1.77B) | ($2.09B) | ($2.47B) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $1.40B (50.2%) | $1.83B (54.8%) | $2.20B (55.4%) | $2.20B (55.4%) | $2.65B (55.9%) | $3.19B (56.4%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $0 | $227.7M | $260.5M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $1.50B | $1.71B | $1.96B |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $805.2M | $923.0M | $1.06B |
| Operating EBIT | -$177.6M (-6.4%) | -$108.7M (-3.3%) | -$99.8M (-2.5%) | -$99.8M (-2.5%) | -$213.2M (-4.5%) | -$83.8M (-1.5%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | $496.9M (12.5%) | $499.2M (10.5%) | $766.9M (13.5%) |
NIQ Global Intelligence Plc (NIQ) earns a "Pass" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 44/100 (Grade C). On $3.97B in baseline revenue (19.4% growth, 55.4% gross margin, -5.7% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of -$6.08B (-$35.97/share vs. $16.49 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, NIQ ranks #1 of 167 (Harvesters · Grade AAA, 426959157.60× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: NIQ Global Intelligence Plc operates at a 55.4% gross margin on $3.97B revenue (+10.3 pts above the Information Technology Services median of 45.1%).
R&D Productivity (Harvesters · Grade AAA): Investing 0.0% of revenue in R&D ($0) generates $426959157.60 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #1 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 19.4% top-line growth with -5.7% FCF margin yields a 13.7% Rule of 40 score (vs. 37.6% cohort median) and -$6.08B DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
NIQ: not scored (missing_rnd)
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 30.4% Growth · 45.1% Gross Margin · 7.3% Unlevered FCF · 5.2% GAAP FCF · 37.6% Rule of 40 · 4.2× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NIQNIQ Global Intelligence PlcSubject | $3.97B | 19.4% | 55.4% | -5.7% | -5.8% | 13.7% | 2.4× | Active |
IBM | $69.87B | 4.2% | 58.0% | 21.0% | 18.2% | 25.1% | 4.2× | |
Paymentus Holdings, Inc. | $871.7M | 30.4% | 27.3% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 37.6% | 4.0× | |
C3.ai, Inc. | $232.4M | -0.3% | 29.1% | -67.0% | -178.1% | -67.3% | 8.7× | |
Nayax Ltd. | $314.0M | 41.3% | 45.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 47.0% | 6.1× | |
Flywire Corporation | $492.1M | 39.0% | 63.9% | 18.4% | 5.2% | 57.4% | 2.5× | |
| Peer Set Median (5 Peers) | $492.1M | 30.4% | 45.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 37.6% | 4.2× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 55.4% to 60.4%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $79.5M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $5.95B.
Weak cash conversion, substantial dilution drag, or constrained financial flexibility.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Leveraged balance sheet coupled with cash burn; heightened refinancing risk
The current share price only requires 5.9% 5-year CAGR (6.0% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 19.4%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 2.4× | $9.40B | $4.86B | $16.49 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 1.9× | $7.52B | $2.98B | $10.12 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.5× | $6.11B | $1.58B | $5.34 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $19.86B | $15.33B | $51.96 | +111.3% |