Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 251 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($166.4M PV of FCF + $398.7M PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $246.4M | $254.2M | $262.4M | $270.7M | $279.4M | $288.3M |
| Operating EBIT | $44.3M | $45.7M | $47.2M | $48.7M | $50.3M | $51.9M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $40.2M (16%) | $41.4M (16%) | $42.8M (16%) | $44.1M (16%) | $45.5M (16%) | $47.0M (16%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $36.5M | $34.2M | $32.1M | $30.1M | $28.3M | $26.5M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $18.83 | $19.99 | $21.36 | $23.01 | $25.02 |
| 9.0% | $16.45 | $17.28 | $18.24 | $19.36 | $20.68 |
| 10.0% | $14.63 | $15.25 | $15.95 | $16.76 | $17.68 |
| 11.0% | $13.20 | $13.67 | $14.20 | $14.80 | $15.48 |
| 12.0% | $12.04 | $12.41 | $12.82 | $13.28 | $13.79 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (73.6% Gross Margin · 3.2% Growth · 4.2% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | FY25ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $235.1M | $243.2M | $243.2M | $246.4M | $254.2M | $262.4M |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | 7.3% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($77.4M) | ($68.6M) | ($63.8M) | ($65.1M) | ($65.9M) | ($66.7M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $157.7M (67.1%) | $174.6M (71.8%) | $179.4M (73.8%) | $181.3M (73.6%) | $188.3M (74.1%) | $195.7M (74.6%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $35.8M | $35.4M | $35.0M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $65.8M | $65.2M | $64.4M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $35.4M | $35.1M | $34.7M |
| Operating EBIT | -$28.9M (-12.3%) | $44.8M (18.4%) | $48.4M (19.9%) | $44.3M (18.0%) | $52.7M (20.7%) | $61.5M (23.4%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | $56.4M (22.9%) | $65.1M (25.6%) | $74.3M (28.3%) |
OneSpan Inc. (OSPN) earns a "Watch" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 80/100 (Grade A). On $246.4M in baseline revenue (3.2% growth, 73.6% gross margin, 16.3% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $565.2M ($15.95/share vs. $23.25 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, OSPN ranks #142 of 167 (Faders · Grade C, 0.15× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: OneSpan Inc. operates at a 73.6% gross margin on $246.4M revenue (+9.3 pts above the Software - Infrastructure median of 64.3%).
R&D Productivity (Faders · Grade C): Investing 14.1% of revenue in R&D ($34.2M) generates $0.15 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #142 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 3.2% top-line growth with 16.3% FCF margin yields a 19.5% Rule of 40 score (vs. 46.3% cohort median) and $565.2M DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
OSPN: Fader, C
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 7.9% Growth · 64.3% Gross Margin · 18.0% Unlevered FCF · 16.8% GAAP FCF · 46.3% Rule of 40 · 5.8× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OSPNOneSpan Inc.Subject | $246.4M | 3.2% | 73.6% | 16.3% | 12.1% | 19.5% | 3.4× | Active |
Block, Inc. | $25.04B | 8.2% | 46.4% | 15.5% | 10.7% | 23.7% | 1.6× | |
VeriSign, Inc. | $1.73B | 5.7% | 88.6% | 59.1% | 54.7% | 64.8% | 15.8× | |
CORPAY, INC. | $3.97B | 7.7% | 78.1% | 44.4% | 41.5% | 52.1% | 7.2× | |
Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz | $2.52T | 40.5% | 62.3% | 19.3% | 19.3% | 59.8% | 4.4× | |
SailPoint, Inc. | $1.17B | 23.8% | 66.2% | 16.7% | -3.7% | 40.5% | 9.1× | |
AMDOCS LTD | $4.53B | -3.7% | 36.6% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 10.5% | 2.1× | |
| Peer Set Median (6 Peers) | $4.25B | 7.9% | 64.3% | 18.0% | 16.8% | 46.3% | 5.8× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 73.6% to 78.6%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $4.9M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $277.8M.
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Solid cash generation with minor working capital absorption
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
The current share price demands 12.9% 5-year CAGR (16.4% net of SBC & dilution)—a +9.7% acceleration over historical run-rate (3.2%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.4× | $843.5M | $886.8M | $23.25 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 2.7× | $674.8M | $718.1M | $18.83 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.2× | $548.3M | $591.6M | $15.51 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.23B | $1.28B | $33.43 | +46.1% |