Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 251 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($1.19B PV of FCF + $6.94B PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $1.00B | $1.81B | $3.25B | $5.86B | $10.55B | $18.98B |
| Operating EBIT | $66.8M | $120.2M | $216.4M | $389.6M | $701.3M | $1.26B |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $43.3M (4%) | $77.9M (4%) | $140.3M (4%) | $252.5M (4%) | $454.5M (4%) | $818.1M (4%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $39.4M | $64.4M | $105.4M | $172.5M | $282.2M | $461.8M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $124.02 | $134.10 | $146.02 | $160.31 | $177.78 |
| 9.0% | $103.83 | $111.05 | $119.38 | $129.09 | $140.58 |
| 10.0% | $88.49 | $93.86 | $99.95 | $106.91 | $114.94 |
| 11.0% | $76.46 | $80.58 | $85.19 | $90.37 | $96.24 |
| 12.0% | $66.80 | $70.04 | $73.61 | $77.59 | $82.03 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (40.5% Gross Margin · 80.0% Growth · 6.1% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY22ASEC 10-K | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $685.4M | $772.8M | $1.00B | $1.00B | $1.81B | $3.25B |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | 53.7% | 12.8% | 30.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($451.1M) | ($508.9M) | ($597.7M) | ($597.6M) | ($1.07B) | ($1.90B) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $234.3M (34.2%) | $263.9M (34.1%) | $406.9M (40.5%) | $406.9M (40.5%) | $741.5M (41.0%) | $1.35B (41.5%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $76.6M | $132.3M | $228.2M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $171.3M | $296.0M | $510.6M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $92.2M | $159.4M | $274.9M |
| Operating EBIT | -$251.5M (-36.7%) | -$24.4M (-3.2%) | $66.8M (6.7%) | $66.8M (6.7%) | $153.8M (8.5%) | $337.3M (10.4%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | $99.0M (9.8%) | $211.7M (11.7%) | $441.4M (13.6%) |
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) earns a "Watch" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 54/100 (Grade B). On $1.00B in baseline revenue (80.0% growth, 40.5% gross margin, 4.3% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $8.14B ($99.95/share vs. $24.26 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, PGY ranks #1 of 167 (Harvesters · Grade AAA, 4.25× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Pagaya Technologies Ltd. operates at a 40.5% gross margin on $1.00B revenue (23.8 pts below the Software - Infrastructure median of 64.3%).
R&D Productivity (Harvesters · Grade AAA): Investing 7.6% of revenue in R&D ($76.6M) generates $4.25 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #1 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 80.0% top-line growth with 4.3% FCF margin yields a 84.3% Rule of 40 score (vs. 46.3% cohort median) and $8.14B DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
PGY: Harvester, AAA
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 7.9% Growth · 64.3% Gross Margin · 18.0% Unlevered FCF · 16.8% GAAP FCF · 46.3% Rule of 40 · 5.8× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PGYPagaya Technologies Ltd.Subject | $1.00B | 80.0% | 40.5% | 4.3% | -1.8% | 84.3% | 2.3× | Active |
Block, Inc. | $25.04B | 8.2% | 46.4% | 15.5% | 10.7% | 23.7% | 1.6× | |
VeriSign, Inc. | $1.73B | 5.7% | 88.6% | 59.1% | 54.7% | 64.8% | 15.8× | |
CORPAY, INC. | $3.97B | 7.7% | 78.1% | 44.4% | 41.5% | 52.1% | 7.2× | |
Joint Stock Co Kaspi.kz | $2.52T | 40.5% | 62.3% | 19.3% | 19.3% | 59.8% | 4.4× | |
SailPoint, Inc. | $1.17B | 23.8% | 66.2% | 16.7% | -3.7% | 40.5% | 9.1× | |
AMDOCS LTD | $4.53B | -3.7% | 36.6% | 14.2% | 14.2% | 10.5% | 2.1× | |
| Peer Set Median (6 Peers) | $4.25B | 7.9% | 64.3% | 18.0% | 16.8% | 46.3% | 5.8× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 40.5% to 45.5%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $20.1M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $3.36B.
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
The current share price only requires 5.6% 5-year CAGR (11.9% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 80.0%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 2.3× | $2.35B | $1.86B | $24.26 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 1.9× | $1.88B | $1.39B | $18.12 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.5× | $1.53B | $1.03B | $13.51 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $5.02B | $4.53B | $59.23 | +113.9% |