Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 251 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($886.9M PV of FCF + $2.84B PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $637.8M | $762.2M | $910.9M | $1.09B | $1.30B | $1.55B |
| Operating EBIT | $88.9M | $106.2M | $127.0M | $151.8M | $181.4M | $216.7M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $137.4M (22%) | $164.2M (22%) | $196.2M (22%) | $234.5M (22%) | $280.2M (22%) | $334.9M (22%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $124.9M | $135.7M | $147.4M | $160.2M | $174.0M | $189.0M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $124.86 | $133.20 | $143.05 | $154.87 | $169.31 |
| 9.0% | $107.94 | $113.91 | $120.79 | $128.83 | $138.32 |
| 10.0% | $95.04 | $99.48 | $104.51 | $110.27 | $116.90 |
| 11.0% | $84.88 | $88.29 | $92.09 | $96.38 | $101.23 |
| 12.0% | $76.68 | $79.36 | $82.32 | $85.60 | $89.28 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (67.0% Gross Margin · 19.5% Growth · 8.6% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY22ASEC 10-K | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $450.9M | $536.9M | $637.8M | $637.8M | $762.2M | $910.9M |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | 17.0% | 19.1% | 18.8% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($153.1M) | ($182.1M) | ($210.7M) | ($210.7M) | ($248.0M) | ($291.9M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $297.8M (66.0%) | $354.8M (66.1%) | $427.1M (67.0%) | $427.0M (67.0%) | $514.2M (67.5%) | $619.0M (68.0%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $62.8M | $72.1M | $82.5M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $179.0M | $205.3M | $235.2M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $96.4M | $110.6M | $126.6M |
| Operating EBIT | $71.2M (15.8%) | $77.2M (14.4%) | $88.9M (13.9%) | $88.9M (13.9%) | $126.2M (16.6%) | $174.7M (19.2%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | $109.3M (17.1%) | $150.6M (19.8%) | $203.8M (22.4%) |
SPS COMMERCE INC (SPSC) earns a "Buy" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 83/100 (Grade A). On $637.8M in baseline revenue (19.5% growth, 67.0% gross margin, 21.5% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $3.73B ($104.51/share vs. $90.42 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, SPSC ranks #12 of 167 (Harvesters · Grade AAA, 1.48× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: SPS COMMERCE INC operates at a 67.0% gross margin on $637.8M revenue (0.4 pts below the Retail Cloud & EDI Solutions median of 67.3%).
R&D Productivity (Harvesters · Grade AAA): Investing 9.1% of revenue in R&D ($68.7M) generates $1.48 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #12 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining 19.5% top-line growth with 21.5% FCF margin yields a 41.0% Rule of 40 score (vs. 38.9% cohort median) and $3.73B DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
SPSC: Harvester, AAA
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 14.1% Growth · 67.3% Gross Margin · 17.6% Unlevered FCF · 13.0% GAAP FCF · 38.9% Rule of 40 · 10.4× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPSCSPS COMMERCE INCSubject | $637.8M | 19.5% | 67.0% | 21.5% | 13.0% | 41.0% | 5.0× | Active |
Microsoft Corporation | $346.44B | 13.7% | 67.7% | 17.3% | 13.7% | 31.1% | 11.4× | |
Oracle | $71.78B | 12.2% | 65.8% | -40.0% | -46.7% | -27.8% | 5.3× | |
SAP SE | $34.18B | 7.6% | 73.0% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 20.5% | 8.3× | |
SHOPIFY INC. | $8.88B | 31.9% | 50.4% | 18.0% | 13.1% | 49.9% | 22.7× | |
INTUIT INC. | $18.83B | 14.5% | 80.8% | 32.3% | 21.9% | 46.8% | 9.4× | |
Snowflake Inc. | $5.43B | 40.0% | 67.0% | 22.0% | -8.2% | 62.0% | 20.9× | |
| Peer Set Median (6 Peers) | $26.50B | 14.1% | 67.3% | 17.6% | 13.0% | 38.9% | 10.4× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 67.0% to 72.0%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $12.8M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $957.2M.
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Market implies 15.5% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (22.7% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 5.0× | $3.20B | $3.42B | $90.42 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 4.0× | $2.56B | $2.78B | $73.54 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.3× | $2.08B | $2.31B | $60.89 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $3.19B | $3.42B | $90.25 | -0.2% |