Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) currently trades at $114.64 with an enterprise value of $29.67B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Autodesk, Inc. at 70/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 8.0% vs. historical growth of 11.3% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (70/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Strong cash conversion; 100%+ of operating profit turns into free cash
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High cash conversion: 100%+ of operating income converted to free cash flow
- Healthy unit economics: 90.6% gross margin
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ADSK?
Market implies 8.0% annual revenue growth over next 5 years, in line with company run-rate.
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.13B | $6.13B | $6.83B | $7.60B | $8.46B | $9.43B | $10.49B |
| Gross Profit | $5.55B | $5.55B | $6.18B | $6.88B | $7.67B | $8.54B | $9.51B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $1.35B | $1.35B | $1.51B | $1.68B | $1.87B | $2.08B | $2.32B |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $683.0M | $683.0M | $760.5M | $846.8M | $942.9M | $1.05B | $1.17B |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $1.51B | $1.51B | $1.68B | $1.87B | $2.08B | $2.31B | $2.58B |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $822.0M | $822.2M | $915.5M | $1.02B | $1.14B | $1.26B | $1.41B |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables Matrix
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autodesk, Inc. | ADSK | $24.88B | $6.13B | 90.6% | 24.6% | 35.9% | 11.1% | 4.2× |
| ServiceNow, Inc. | NOW | $192.40B | $10.98B | 79.5% | 31.5% | 54.0% | 15.8% | 17.2× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $38.74B | $2.98B | 74.9% | 20.8% | 41.1% | 17.1% | 12.5× |
| Salesforce, Inc. | CRM | $307.82B | $37.90B | 76.8% | 32.4% | 43.4% | 8.4% | 8.0× |
| Datadog, Inc. | DDOG | $45.58B | $2.68B | 81.2% | 28.5% | 55.0% | 20.4% | 16.1× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $54.93B | $3.62B | 74.0% | 26.0% | 54.0% | 34.5% | 14.7× |
| HubSpot, Inc. | HUBS | $38.18B | $4.76B | 83.4% | 16.9% | 38.8% | 10.9% | 7.4× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 27.3% | 48.7% | 16.4% | 13.6× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 4.2× | $25.84B | $24.88B | $114.64 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 3.4× | $20.67B | $19.71B | $90.83 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.7× | $16.79B | $15.83B | $72.97 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $30.66B | $29.70B | $136.84 | +18.6% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) Valuation
What is Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) has a Base Case implied value of $132.31 per share (with a Bear Case of $65.41 and a Bull Case of $214.55), compared to its current price of $114.64. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Autodesk, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 35.9%, combining a 11.3% revenue growth run-rate with a 24.5% TTM free cash flow margin on $6.13B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 48.7%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into ADSK stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $114.64 per share (Enterprise Value of $25.84B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 8.0%, compared to Autodesk, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 11.3%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Autodesk, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 70/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 13.6× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)'s valuation?
Autodesk, Inc. recorded $683.0M in TTM stock-based compensation (11.1% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Autodesk, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 3.3%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.