Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) currently trades at $51.69 with an enterprise value of $17.89B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Nutanix, Inc. at 78/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 11.0% vs. historical growth of 16.2% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (78/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 435% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 86.8% gross margin and 45.7% Rule of 40 score
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into NTNX?
Market implies 11.0% annual revenue growth over next 5 years, in line with company run-rate.
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.54B | $2.54B | $2.95B | $3.42B | $3.98B | $4.62B | $5.37B |
| Gross Profit | $2.20B | $2.20B | $2.56B | $2.97B | $3.45B | $4.01B | $4.66B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $172.5M | $172.6M | $200.5M | $232.8M | $270.4M | $314.1M | $364.8M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $351.6M | $351.5M | $408.3M | $474.2M | $550.8M | $639.7M | $743.1M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $750.2M | $750.2M | $871.4M | $1.01B | $1.18B | $1.37B | $1.59B |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $398.6M | $398.7M | $463.1M | $537.9M | $624.8M | $725.7M | $842.9M |
Data, Observability & Cloud Infrastructure Peer Comparables Matrix
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nutanix, Inc. | NTNX | $13.87B | $2.54B | 86.8% | 29.6% | 45.7% | 13.8% | 5.7× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $54.93B | $3.62B | 74.0% | 26.0% | 54.0% | 34.5% | 14.7× |
| MongoDB, Inc. | MDB | $20.63B | $1.99B | 74.6% | 11.5% | 37.5% | 24.8% | 9.8× |
| Cloudflare, Inc. | NET | $38.64B | $1.68B | 77.2% | 13.5% | 43.0% | 21.0% | 22.7× |
| Akamai Technologies | AKAM | $14.59B | $1.70B | 79.0% | 29.4% | 57.7% | 20.5% | 8.2× |
| Palantir Technologies | PLTR | $150.93B | $2.87B | 82.5% | 36.5% | 63.5% | 19.2% | 51.1× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=5) | 77.2% | 26.0% | 54.0% | 21.0% | 14.7× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 5.7× | $14.57B | $13.87B | $51.69 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 4.6× | $11.65B | $10.95B | $40.83 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.7× | $9.47B | $8.77B | $32.69 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $12.69B | $11.99B | $44.69 | -12.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) Valuation
What is Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) has a Base Case implied value of $64.06 per share (with a Bear Case of $28.36 and a Bull Case of $111.12), compared to its current price of $51.69. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Nutanix, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 45.7%, combining a 16.2% revenue growth run-rate with a 29.6% TTM free cash flow margin on $2.54B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Data, Observability & Cloud Infrastructure peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 54.0%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into NTNX stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $51.69 per share (Enterprise Value of $14.57B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 11.0%, compared to Nutanix, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 16.2%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Nutanix, Inc. compare to Data, Observability & Cloud Infrastructure software peers?
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 78/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Data, Observability & Cloud Infrastructure peer group (SNOW, MDB, NET, AKAM, PLTR), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 14.7× and a median gross margin of 77.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX)'s valuation?
Nutanix, Inc. recorded $351.6M in TTM stock-based compensation (13.9% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Nutanix, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 2.9%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.