Research HubSoftware & Cloud ServicesRubrik, Inc. (RBRK)

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SEC 10-K / 10-Q Equity ResearchSoftware & Cloud ServicesTicker: RBRK

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) currently trades at $76.48 with an enterprise value of $970.8M. Our proprietary institutional model rates Rubrik, Inc. at 44/100 (Grade: C · Capital Intensive / Low Margin). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 64.4% vs. historical growth of 23.0% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).

GDA Quality Score

C44/100

Capital Intensive / Low Margin

Share Price / DCF Base

$76.48 / $0.74

Enterprise Value

$16.13B

TTM Revenue

$886.5M (+23.0%)

Gross Margin

70.0%

Rule of 40 Score

26.5%

EV / TTM Revenue

18.2×

Structural Moat: Enterprise Software & Cloud Services Switching Costs & Recurring Workflow Integration

Key Growth Catalyst: AI workflow automation, multi-module expansion across enterprise cohorts, and operating margin leverage at Rubrik, Inc..

Institutional fundamental teardown of Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.

Seed RBRK in Interactive 3-Statement Model

Section 1 · Intrinsic Valuation Engine

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Terminal Growth: 2.5% · Diluted Shares: 200.1M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

-$2.12

Implied Equity Value:$-424.9M

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$0.74

Implied Equity Value:$148.3M

vs Current ($76.48):-99.0%

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$4.86

Implied Equity Value:$972.1M

vs Current ($76.48):-93.7%

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 33.0%

Stress-test RBRK's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

5Y Revenue CAGR23.0%

2%Hist: 23%50%

Target FCF Margin10.0%

5%Base: 10%45%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

6.5%Base: 10%14.5%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

1.0%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF4.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Implied Price$9.61

Spread vs Market-87.4%

Simulated EV$2.75B

Effective FCF Margin10.0%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $627.5M

Year 1$1.09B

FCF:$109.0M

PV:$99.1M

Year 2$1.34B

FCF:$134.1M

PV:$110.8M

Year 3$1.65B

FCF:$165.0M

PV:$123.9M

Year 4$2.03B

FCF:$202.9M

PV:$138.6M

Year 5$2.50B

FCF:$249.6M

PV:$155.0M

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$2.75B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $627.5M (22.9%)Terminal PV: $2.12B (77.1%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$307.1M

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$1.13B

(=) Implied Equity Value (200.1M shs)$1.92B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $76.48).

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$11.19 -85%	$12.18 -84%	$13.34 -83%	$14.70 -81%	$16.34 -79%
9.3%	$9.59 -87%	$10.37 -86%	$11.26 -85%	$12.30 -84%	$13.52 -82%
10.0%	$8.27 -89%	$8.90 -88%	$9.61 -87%	$10.42 -86%	$11.36 -85%
10.8%	$7.17 -91%	$7.68 -90%	$8.26 -89%	$8.91 -88%	$9.64 -87%
11.5%	$6.24 -92%	$6.66 -91%	$7.13 -91%	$7.66 -90%	$8.25 -89%

Section 2 · Fundamental Underwriting

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (44/100 · Grade C)

Capital Intensive / Low Margin

Weak cash conversion, substantial dilution drag, or constrained financial flexibility.

Cash Conversion13 / 25

Actual: 3.5% marginTarget: Target: ≥100%

Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing

Dilution Friction4 / 25

Actual: 103.1% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Severe dilution; heavy SBC shields GAAP losses while diluting common equity

Unit Economics15 / 25

Actual: 70% GM / R40: 27%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale

Balance Sheet12 / 25

Actual: -$822.5M Net DebtTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Excessive shareholder dilution: SBC represents 103.1% of revenue and 1895% of operating cash flow

Section 3 · Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into RBRK?

Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In

The current share price demands 64.4% 5-year CAGR (107.4% net of SBC & dilution)—a +41.4% acceleration over historical run-rate (23.0%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

64.4%

Required to justify $16.13B EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

23.0%

Audited multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

+41.4%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

58.8%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Institutional Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (103.1% of revenue) and annual share dilution (4.5%/yr). Accounting for both requires 107.4% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $76.48/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle107.4%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+43.0% / yr

Section 4 · 5-Year Forecast Schedule

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Audited Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$886.5M	$886.5M	$1.09B	$1.34B	$1.65B	$2.03B	$2.49B
Gross Profit	$620.8M	$620.8M	$763.3M	$938.7M	$1.15B	$1.42B	$1.75B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$-1.13B	$-709.2M	$-872.1M	$-1.07B	$-1.32B	$-1.62B	$-1.99B
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$913.9M	$354.6M	$436.1M	$536.2M	$659.4M	$810.9M	$997.1M
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$31.3M	$31.4M	$38.6M	$47.5M	$58.4M	$71.8M	$88.2M
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$-882.6M	$-323.2M	$-397.5M	$-488.8M	$-601.1M	$-739.1M	$-908.9M

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 10.0 + 0.06 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

RBRK Actual vs. Reg. Multiple18.2× vs 11.5× fair

Reg.-Implied Share Price$46.97 (+57.8% Premium)

RBRKRubrik, Inc.·Rule of 40: 26.5%·Actual EV/Rev: 18.2×·Regression Fair Multiple: 11.5×

+57.8% Above Trendline (Premium)Open RBRK Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
Rubrik, Inc.	RBRK	$15.31B	$886.5M	70.0%	3.5%	26.5%	103.1%	18.2×
ServiceNow	NOW	$152.61B	$10.98B	79.2%	31.1%	54.2%	15.9%	13.9×
Workday, Inc.	WDAY	$50.35B	$8.00B	75.0%	27.4%	43.9%	19.0%	6.4×
Salesforce	CRM	$217.10B	$37.90B	77.2%	32.8%	42.8%	8.4%	5.8×
Datadog	DDOG	$46.05B	$2.68B	80.8%	31.1%	57.7%	21.3%	17.4×
Snowflake Inc.	SNOW	$71.79B	$3.63B	66.5%	25.2%	57.7%	40.8%	20.0×
Hubspot	HUBS	$19.89B	$2.63B	85.0%	21.3%	52.7%	19.2%	7.7×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				78.2%	29.2%	53.5%	19.1%	10.8×

Section 6 · Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Implied Share Price	Delta vs Current
Current Multiple	18.2×	$16.13B	$15.31B	$76.48	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	14.6×	$12.90B	$12.08B	$60.36	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	11.8×	$10.48B	$9.66B	$48.27	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$4.43B	$3.61B	$18.04	-72.5%

Section 7 · Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) Valuation

What is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) has a Base Case implied value of $0.74 per share (with a Bear Case of -$2.12 and a Bull Case of $4.86), compared to its current price of $76.48. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

Rubrik, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 26.5%, combining a 23.0% revenue growth run-rate with a 3.5% TTM free cash flow margin on $886.5M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.

What revenue growth rate is priced into RBRK stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

At $76.48 per share (Enterprise Value of $16.13B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 64.4%, compared to Rubrik, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 23.0%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".

How does Rubrik, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 44/100 (Grade C — Capital Intensive / Low Margin). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)'s valuation?

Rubrik, Inc. recorded $913.9M in TTM stock-based compensation (103.1% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Rubrik, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -5.8%, scoring 4/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

WACC \ Terminal

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

8.5%

$11.19

-85%

$12.18

-84%

$13.34

-83%

$14.70

-81%

$16.34

-79%

9.3%

$9.59

-87%

$10.37

-86%

$11.26

-85%

$12.30

-84%

$13.52

-82%

10.0%

$8.27

-89%

$8.90

-88%

$9.61

-87%

$10.42

-86%

$11.36

-85%

10.8%

$7.17

-91%

$7.68

-90%

$8.26

-89%

$8.91

-88%

$9.64

-87%

11.5%

$6.24

-92%

$6.66

-91%

$7.13

-91%

$7.66

-90%

$8.25

-89%

Statement Line Item

TTM Audited Base

TTM

Revenue

$886.5M

$1.09B

$1.34B

$1.65B

$2.03B

$2.49B

Gross Profit

$620.8M

$763.3M

$938.7M

$1.15B

$1.42B

$1.75B

Operating Income (EBIT)

$-1.13B

$-709.2M

$-872.1M

$-1.07B

$-1.32B

$-1.62B

$-1.99B

Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)

$913.9M

$354.6M

$436.1M

$536.2M

$659.4M

$810.9M

$997.1M

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)

$31.3M

$31.4M

$38.6M

$47.5M

$58.4M

$71.8M

$88.2M

SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow

$-882.6M

$-323.2M

$-397.5M

$-488.8M

$-601.1M

$-739.1M

$-908.9M

Company

Ticker

Market Cap

TTM Revenue

Gross Margin

FCF Margin

Rule of 40

SBC % Rev

EV / Rev

Rubrik, Inc.

RBRK

$15.31B

$886.5M

70.0%

3.5%

26.5%

103.1%

18.2×

ServiceNow

NOW

$152.61B

$10.98B

79.2%

31.1%

54.2%

15.9%

13.9×

Workday, Inc.

WDAY

$50.35B

$8.00B

75.0%

27.4%

43.9%

19.0%

6.4×

Salesforce

CRM

$217.10B

$37.90B

77.2%

32.8%

42.8%

8.4%

5.8×

Datadog

DDOG

$46.05B

$2.68B

80.8%

31.1%

57.7%

21.3%

17.4×

Snowflake Inc.

SNOW

$71.79B

$3.63B

66.5%

25.2%

57.7%

40.8%

20.0×

Hubspot

HUBS

$19.89B

$2.63B

85.0%

21.3%

52.7%

19.2%

7.7×

Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)

78.2%

29.2%

53.5%

19.1%

10.8×

Multiple Scenario

EV / Revenue

Implied Enterprise Value

Implied Equity Value

Implied Share Price

Delta vs Current

Current Multiple

18.2×

$16.13B

$15.31B

$76.48

0.0%

-20% Multiple Compression

14.6×

$12.90B

$12.08B

$60.36

-20.0%

-35% Multiple Compression

11.8×

$10.48B

$9.66B

$48.27

-35.0%

Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)

5.0×

$4.43B

$3.61B

$18.04

-72.5%

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (44/100 · Grade C)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into RBRK?

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) Valuation

What is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into RBRK stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does Rubrik, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (44/100 · Grade C)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into RBRK?

Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) Valuation

What is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into RBRK stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does Rubrik, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports