Company / Stock (250)3-Year Statement
Golden Door Asset's Financial Engine connects audited SEC 10-K/10-Q income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements to a deterministic 5-year unlevered DCF valuation, Reverse-DCF implied growth solver, ASC 350-40 software capitalization bridge, and 1-year lagged R&D capital efficiency benchmark across 167 public software companies (167 ranked in the R&D Return universe).
Discounting 5-year unlevered FCF at 10.0% WACC and 2.5% terminal growth ($222.8M PV of FCF + $389.7M PV of Terminal Value)
| DCF Cash Flow Line | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $309.5M | $277.9M | $249.6M | $224.1M | $201.3M | $180.7M |
| Operating EBIT | $27.0M | $24.2M | $21.8M | $19.5M | $17.5M | $15.8M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $78.6M (25%) | $70.6M (25%) | $63.4M (25%) | $56.9M (25%) | $51.1M (25%) | $45.9M (25%) |
| Discounted PV of FCF (@ 10.0% WACC) | $71.5M | $58.4M | $47.6M | $38.9M | $31.8M | $25.9M |
| WACC \ Term g | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $13.25 | $14.15 | $15.22 | $16.51 | $18.08 |
| 9.0% | $11.37 | $12.02 | $12.76 | $13.64 | $14.67 |
| 10.0% | $9.93 | $10.41 | $10.96 | $11.58 | $12.30 |
| 11.0% | $8.78 | $9.16 | $9.57 | $10.04 | $10.56 |
| 12.0% | $7.86 | $8.15 | $8.47 | $8.83 | $9.23 |
Synchronized directly with the 3-Year Operating Statement (78.7% Gross Margin · -10.2% Growth · 8.7% SBC/Rev)
| Income Statement Line | FY23ASEC 10-K | FY24ASEC 10-K | FY25ASEC 10-K | Year 1 (2026)Forecast | Year 2 (2027)Forecast | Year 3 (2028)Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $294.5M | $331.5M | $251.8M | $309.5M | $277.9M | $249.6M |
| YoY Revenue Growth (%) | -10.2% | 12.6% | -24.1% | -10.2% | -10.2% | -10.2% |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | ($95.2M) | ($87.2M) | ($68.6M) | ($66.0M) | ($57.8M) | ($50.7M) |
| Gross Profit & Margin | $199.3M (67.7%) | $244.3M (73.7%) | $183.1M (72.7%) | $243.5M (78.7%) | $220.1M (79.2%) | $198.9M (79.7%) |
| Research & Development (R&D) | — | — | — | $110.6M | $95.4M | $82.1M |
| Sales & Marketing (S&M) | — | — | — | $68.8M | $59.4M | $51.1M |
| General & Administrative (G&A) | — | — | — | $37.1M | $32.0M | $27.5M |
| Operating EBIT | -$27.2M (-9.2%) | -$579.9M (-174.9%) | -$2.3M (-0.9%) | $27.0M (8.7%) | $33.4M (12.0%) | $38.2M (15.3%) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | — | — | — | $36.8M (11.9%) | $42.2M (15.2%) | $46.2M (18.5%) |
Cerence Inc. (CRNC) earns a "Pass" rating and an institutional Quality Score of 78/100 (Grade A). On $309.5M in baseline revenue (-10.2% growth, 78.7% gross margin, 25.4% FCF margin), our 5-year DCF yields an Enterprise Value of $612.5M ($10.96/share vs. $23.34 market price). On the R&D Return Benchmark, CRNC ranks #162 of 167 (Burners · Grade D, -0.50× return).
Gross Margin & Unit Economics: Cerence Inc. operates at a 78.7% gross margin on $309.5M revenue (+3.6 pts above the Software - Application median of 75.1%).
R&D Productivity (Burners · Grade D): Investing 38.8% of revenue in R&D ($97.8M) generates $-0.50 of incremental gross profit per R&D dollar (Rank #162 of 167).
Rule of 40 & Cash Conversion: Combining -10.2% top-line growth with 25.4% FCF margin yields a 15.2% Rule of 40 score (vs. 59.0% cohort median) and $612.5M DCF Enterprise Value.
Measures incremental gross profit generated per prior-year R&D dollar across 167 scored software companies
x = R&D % of revenue (FY) · y = new gross profit per R&D dollar (FY)
CRNC: Burner, D
Hover or tap a dot to inspect peer R&D intensity and return
Intensity = R&D ÷ revenue from the same period. The grade uses TTM when that period end is fresh; otherwise the latest fiscal year if that end is fresh; otherwise the name is ungraded. Bands describe spend level, not quality.
As of 2026-10-22.
Active Medians: 35.8% Growth · 75.1% Gross Margin · 21.9% Unlevered FCF · 14.4% GAAP FCF · 59.0% Rule of 40 · 6.6× EV/Rev
| Company | Actions | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CRNCCerence Inc.Subject | $309.5M | -10.2% | 78.7% | 25.4% | 16.7% | 15.2% | 3.9× | Active |
Grab Holdings Limited | $2.80B | 56.3% | 42.0% | 27.7% | 17.7% | 84.0% | 6.3× | |
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | $11.24B | 44.5% | 86.6% | 25.8% | 21.3% | 70.2% | 5.9× | |
Figma, Inc. | $1.28B | 44.6% | 79.1% | 18.1% | -112.4% | 62.7% | 8.8× | |
InterDigital, Inc. | $868.5M | 24.7% | 80.5% | 30.6% | 25.3% | 55.3% | 9.9× | |
OPEN TEXT CORP | $5.30B | 10.8% | 63.5% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 23.8% | 2.6× | |
ServiceTitan, Inc. | $1.06B | 27.1% | 71.1% | 12.8% | -7.7% | 40.0% | 6.8× | |
| Peer Set Median (6 Peers) | $2.04B | 35.8% | 75.1% | 21.9% | 14.4% | 59.0% | 6.6× | =MEDIAN() |
Structural sensitivities monitored in the 3-Statement Financial Engine
Apply any lever below to write its operating assumptions directly into the 3-Statement Model
Automate cloud hosting & support workflows to lift gross margin from 78.7% to 83.7%.
Align R&D intensity and ASC 350-40 capitalization to the R&D Compounders cohort median, recapturing $49.0M in annual EBITDA.
Lift net dollar retention and expansion velocity by +300 bps, compounding Year 3 revenue to $266.5M.
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Manageable debt load covered by recurring positive free cash flow
The current share price demands 5.2% 5-year CAGR (12.6% net of SBC & dilution)—a +15.4% acceleration over historical run-rate (-10.2%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Evaluates shareholder equity vulnerability if SaaS valuation multiples contract toward historical industry medians.
| Multiple Contraction Scenario | EV / Rev | Implied EV | Implied Equity | Implied Price | Downside % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 3.9× | $1.20B | $1.11B | $23.34 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 3.1× | $963.0M | $873.6M | $18.30 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.5× | $782.5M | $693.0M | $14.52 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.55B | $1.46B | $30.54 | +28.6% |