MBAI Stock DCF Valuation & Research (MBody AI)

Intrinsic Valuation Summary

MBody AI Ltd. (MBAI) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Term Growth: 2.5% · Shares: 201.2M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

$8.12B

Implied Enterprise Value:$7.51B

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$19.79B

Implied Enterprise Value:$19.17B

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$37.10B

Implied Enterprise Value:$36.49B

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 45.9%

Stress-test MBAI's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

3-Stage R&D Efficiency SimulatorR&D Capital Return & Operating Leverage Thesis for MBAI

Simulate how autonomous code velocity and R&D capital efficiency expand MBAI's operating leverage, 5-year FCF margin, DCF enterprise value, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.

Modeled Gross / FCF Margin

74.6% GM · 20.4% FCF

Implied DCF EV (Stage 1)

$19.17B (Eq: $19.79B)

R&D Return 2x2 Trajectory

SEC R&D Benchmark Coverage

Plot on 2x2 Benchmark Open in /model

5Y Revenue CAGR25.5%

2%Hist: 25.5%60%

Target FCF Margin20.4%

2%Base: 20.4%65%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

5%Base: 10%18%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

0.5%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF5.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Enterprise Value$19.17B

Simulated Equity Value$19.79B

Effective FCF Margin20.4%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $4.26B

Year 1$3.47B

FCF:$708.3M

PV:$643.9M

Year 2$4.36B

FCF:$888.9M

PV:$734.6M

Year 3$5.47B

FCF:$1.12B

PV:$838.1M

Year 4$6.86B

FCF:$1.40B

PV:$956.2M

Year 5$8.61B

FCF:$1.76B

PV:$1.09B

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$19.17B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $4.26B (22.2%)Terminal PV: $14.91B (77.8%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$1.32B

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$711.0M

(=) Implied Equity Value (201.2M shs)$19.79B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied DCF sensitivity across 25 valuation states.

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$22.01B +11%	$23.41B +18%	$25.03B +27%	$26.95B +36%	$29.26B +48%
9.3%	$19.76B -0%	$20.85B +5%	$22.11B +12%	$23.58B +19%	$25.29B +28%
10.0%	$17.90B -10%	$18.79B -5%	$19.79B +0%	$20.93B +6%	$22.25B +12%
10.8%	$16.35B -17%	$17.07B -14%	$17.88B -10%	$18.80B -5%	$19.84B +0%
11.5%	$15.04B -24%	$15.64B -21%	$16.30B -18%	$17.05B -14%	$17.88B -10%

5-Year Financial Forecast

MBody AI Ltd. (MBAI) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Reported Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$2.77B	$2.77B	$3.47B	$4.36B	$5.47B	$6.86B	$8.61B
Gross Profit	$2.06B	$2.06B	$2.59B	$3.25B	$4.08B	$5.12B	$6.43B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$273.9M	$273.9M	$343.7M	$431.4M	$541.4M	$679.4M	$852.7M
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$312.6M	$312.6M	$392.3M	$492.4M	$617.9M	$775.5M	$973.3M
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$564.4M	$564.4M	$708.3M	$888.9M	$1.12B	$1.40B	$1.76B
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$251.8M	$251.8M	$315.9M	$396.5M	$497.6M	$624.5M	$783.8M

Fundamental Quality Breakdown

Software Quality Scorecard (83/100 · Grade A)

High-Quality Compounder

Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.

Cash Conversion25 / 25

Actual: 206% of EBITTarget: Target: ≥100%

Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%

Dilution Friction16 / 25

Actual: 11.3% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees

Unit Economics20 / 25

Actual: 75% GM / R40: 46%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability

Balance Sheet22 / 25

Actual: +$611.4M Net CashTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 206% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
Healthy unit economics: 74.6% gross margin
Net cash positive: $611.4M balance sheet buffer

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into MBAI?

Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In

The current share price demands 39.6% 5-year CAGR (52.4% net of SBC & dilution)—a +14.1% acceleration over historical run-rate (25.5%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

39.6%

Required to justify $31.54B EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

25.5%

Reported multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

+14.1%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

33.6%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (11.3% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 52.4% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $31.54B EV on a true economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle52.4%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+12.8% / yr

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 7.8 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

MBAI Actual vs. Reg. Multiple11.4× vs 10.1× fair

Peer Multiple Spread+12.9% Premium

MBAIMBody AI Ltd.·Rule of 40: 45.9%·Actual EV/Rev: 11.4×·Regression Fair Multiple: 10.1×

+12.9% Above Trendline (Premium)Open MBAI Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
MBody AI Ltd.	MBAI	$32.15B	$2.77B	74.6%	20.4%	45.9%	11.3%	11.4×
Grab Holdings Limited	GRAB	$20.18B	$2.80B	42.0%	27.7%	84.0%	10.0%	6.3×
Figma, Inc.	FIG	$18.07B	$749.0M	88.3%	-9.2%	39.1%	126.5%	23.5×
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.	YMM	$71.73B	$11.24B	86.6%	25.8%	70.2%	4.4%	5.9×
ServiceTitan, Inc.	TTAN	$9.97B	$771.9M	64.9%	2.0%	30.5%	21.2%	12.5×
InterDigital, Inc.	IDCC	$8.65B	$868.5M	80.5%	30.6%	55.3%	5.3%	9.9×
OPEN TEXT CORP	OTEX	$8.11B	$5.30B	63.5%	13.0%	23.8%	2.0%	2.6×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				72.7%	19.4%	47.2%	7.6%	8.1×

Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Delta vs Base
Current Multiple	11.4×	$31.54B	$32.15B	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	9.1×	$25.23B	$25.84B	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	7.4×	$20.50B	$21.11B	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$13.83B	$14.44B	-56.1%

Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: MBody AI Ltd. (MBAI) Valuation

What is MBody AI Ltd. (MBAI)'s intrinsic 5-year DCF valuation?

Based on modeled estimates (SEC filing data not yet available) and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, MBody AI Ltd. (MBAI) has a Base Case 5-year DCF Enterprise Value of $19.17B and an implied Equity Value of $19.79B (ranging from $8.12B in the Bear Case to $37.10B in the Bull Case). The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is MBody AI Ltd. (MBAI)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

MBody AI Ltd. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 45.9%, combining a 25.5% revenue growth run-rate with a 20.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $2.77B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.

What revenue growth rate is required under MBAI's Reverse-DCF analysis?

At a 5-year DCF Enterprise Value of $31.54B, our Reverse-DCF solver indicates a 5-year implied revenue CAGR hurdle of 39.6%, compared to MBody AI Ltd.'s historical CAGR of 25.5%. Overall expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".

What is MBody AI Ltd. (MBAI)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?

MBody AI Ltd. (MBAI) R&D productivity is evaluated alongside 174 ranked software companies on the Golden Door R&D Return Benchmark.

How does MBody AI Ltd. compare to Software - Application peers?

MBody AI Ltd. (MBAI) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 83/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact MBody AI Ltd. (MBAI)'s valuation?

MBody AI Ltd. recorded $312.6M in TTM stock-based compensation (11.3% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, MBody AI Ltd.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.8%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

Sector Coverage Universe

View All Coverage

GRABGrab Holdings Limited

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

FIGFigma, Inc.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

TTANServiceTitan, Inc.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

IDCCInterDigital, Inc.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown