MBGL Stock DCF Valuation & Research (Mobility Global)

Intrinsic Valuation Summary

Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Term Growth: 2.5% · Shares: 239.9M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

$5.96B

Implied Enterprise Value:$4.81B

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$11.31B

Implied Enterprise Value:$10.15B

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$18.26B

Implied Enterprise Value:$17.11B

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 40.7%

Stress-test MBGL's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

3-Stage R&D Efficiency SimulatorR&D Capital Return & Operating Leverage Thesis for MBGL

Simulate how autonomous code velocity and R&D capital efficiency expand MBGL's operating leverage, 5-year FCF margin, DCF enterprise value, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.

Modeled Gross / FCF Margin

79.1% GM · 25.5% FCF

Implied DCF EV (Stage 1)

$10.15B (Eq: $11.31B)

R&D Return 2x2 Trajectory

SEC R&D Benchmark Coverage

Plot on 2x2 Benchmark Open in /model

5Y Revenue CAGR15.2%

2%Hist: 15.2%60%

Target FCF Margin25.5%

2%Base: 25.5%65%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

5%Base: 10%18%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

0.5%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF5.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Enterprise Value$10.15B

Simulated Equity Value$11.31B

Effective FCF Margin25.5%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $2.54B

Year 1$2.00B

FCF:$509.1M

PV:$462.9M

Year 2$2.30B

FCF:$586.5M

PV:$484.7M

Year 3$2.65B

FCF:$675.7M

PV:$507.7M

Year 4$3.05B

FCF:$778.4M

PV:$531.7M

Year 5$3.52B

FCF:$896.7M

PV:$556.8M

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$10.15B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $2.54B (25.1%)Terminal PV: $7.61B (74.9%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$1.15B

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$0

(=) Implied Equity Value (239.9M shs)$11.31B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied DCF sensitivity across 25 valuation states.

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$12.45B +10%	$13.17B +16%	$13.99B +24%	$14.98B +32%	$16.15B +43%
9.3%	$11.30B -0%	$11.86B +5%	$12.50B +11%	$13.25B +17%	$14.12B +25%
10.0%	$10.34B -8%	$10.80B -5%	$11.31B +0%	$11.89B +5%	$12.56B +11%
10.8%	$9.55B -16%	$9.92B -12%	$10.33B -9%	$10.80B -5%	$11.33B +0%
11.5%	$8.87B -22%	$9.18B -19%	$9.52B -16%	$9.90B -12%	$10.32B -9%

5-Year Financial Forecast

Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Reported Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$1.73B	$1.73B	$2.00B	$2.30B	$2.65B	$3.05B	$3.52B
Gross Profit	$1.37B	$1.37B	$1.58B	$1.82B	$2.10B	$2.41B	$2.78B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$246.1M	$246.1M	$283.5M	$326.6M	$376.3M	$433.5M	$499.3M
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$204.5M	$204.5M	$235.6M	$271.4M	$312.7M	$360.2M	$414.9M
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$442.0M	$442.0M	$509.1M	$586.5M	$675.7M	$778.4M	$896.7M
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$237.4M	$237.4M	$273.5M	$315.1M	$363.0M	$418.2M	$481.8M

Fundamental Quality Breakdown

Software Quality Scorecard (91/100 · Grade A+)

Elite SaaS Compounder

Exceptional unit economics, disciplined equity dilution, and fortress balance sheet.

Cash Conversion25 / 25

Actual: 180% of EBITTarget: Target: ≥100%

Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%

Dilution Friction16 / 25

Actual: 11.8% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees

Unit Economics25 / 25

Actual: 79% GM / R40: 41%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40

Balance Sheet25 / 25

Actual: +$1.15B Net CashTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Zero-debt fortress balance sheet with abundant net cash liquidity

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 180% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
Top-quartile software unit economics: 79.1% gross margin and 40.7% Rule of 40 score
Fortress capital structure: Zero debt and $1.15B in pure net cash

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into MBGL?

Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In

The current share price demands 24.3% 5-year CAGR (34.3% net of SBC & dilution)—a +9.1% acceleration over historical run-rate (15.2%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

24.3%

Required to justify $14.39B EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

15.2%

Reported multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

+9.1%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

36.1%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (11.8% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 34.3% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $14.39B EV on a true economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle34.3%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+10.0% / yr

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 7.4 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

MBGL Actual vs. Reg. Multiple8.3× vs 9.4× fair

Peer Multiple Spread12.0% Discount

MBGLMobility Global Inc.·Rule of 40: 40.7%·Actual EV/Rev: 8.3×·Regression Fair Multiple: 9.4×

12.0% Below Trendline (Attractive)Open MBGL Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
Mobility Global Inc.	MBGL	$15.54B	$1.73B	79.1%	25.5%	40.7%	11.8%	8.3×
Grab Holdings Limited	GRAB	$20.18B	$2.80B	42.0%	27.7%	84.0%	10.0%	6.3×
Figma, Inc.	FIG	$18.07B	$749.0M	88.3%	-9.2%	39.1%	126.5%	23.5×
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.	YMM	$71.73B	$11.24B	86.6%	25.8%	70.2%	4.4%	5.9×
ServiceTitan, Inc.	TTAN	$9.97B	$771.9M	64.9%	2.0%	30.5%	21.2%	12.5×
InterDigital, Inc.	IDCC	$8.65B	$868.5M	80.5%	30.6%	55.3%	5.3%	9.9×
OPEN TEXT CORP	OTEX	$8.11B	$5.30B	63.5%	13.0%	23.8%	2.0%	2.6×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				72.7%	19.4%	47.2%	7.6%	8.1×

Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Delta vs Base
Current Multiple	8.3×	$14.39B	$15.54B	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	6.6×	$11.51B	$12.66B	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	5.4×	$9.35B	$10.50B	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$8.67B	$9.82B	-39.8%

Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL) Valuation

What is Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL)'s intrinsic 5-year DCF valuation?

Based on modeled estimates (SEC filing data not yet available) and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL) has a Base Case 5-year DCF Enterprise Value of $10.15B and an implied Equity Value of $11.31B (ranging from $5.96B in the Bear Case to $18.26B in the Bull Case). The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

Mobility Global Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 40.7%, combining a 15.2% revenue growth run-rate with a 25.5% TTM free cash flow margin on $1.73B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.

What revenue growth rate is required under MBGL's Reverse-DCF analysis?

At a 5-year DCF Enterprise Value of $14.39B, our Reverse-DCF solver indicates a 5-year implied revenue CAGR hurdle of 24.3%, compared to Mobility Global Inc.'s historical CAGR of 15.2%. Overall expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".

What is Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?

Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL) R&D productivity is evaluated alongside 174 ranked software companies on the Golden Door R&D Return Benchmark.

How does Mobility Global Inc. compare to Software - Application peers?

Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 91/100 (Grade A+ — Elite SaaS Compounder). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Mobility Global Inc. (MBGL)'s valuation?

Mobility Global Inc. recorded $204.5M in TTM stock-based compensation (11.8% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Mobility Global Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.5%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

Sector Coverage Universe

View All Coverage

GRABGrab Holdings Limited

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

FIGFigma, Inc.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

TTANServiceTitan, Inc.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

IDCCInterDigital, Inc.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown