OCTV Stock DCF Valuation & Research (Octave Intelligence)

Intrinsic Valuation Summary

Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Term Growth: 2.5% · Shares: 201.8M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

$12.35B

Implied Enterprise Value:$10.45B

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$28.63B

Implied Enterprise Value:$26.74B

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$52.82B

Implied Enterprise Value:$50.93B

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 47.4%

Stress-test OCTV's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

3-Stage R&D Efficiency SimulatorR&D Capital Return & Operating Leverage Thesis for OCTV

Simulate how autonomous code velocity and R&D capital efficiency expand OCTV's operating leverage, 5-year FCF margin, DCF enterprise value, and 2x2 R&D Return Quadrant.

Modeled Gross / FCF Margin

75.8% GM · 21.8% FCF

Implied DCF EV (Stage 1)

$26.74B (Eq: $28.63B)

R&D Return 2x2 Trajectory

SEC R&D Benchmark Coverage

Plot on 2x2 Benchmark Open in /model

5Y Revenue CAGR25.6%

2%Hist: 25.6%60%

Target FCF Margin21.8%

2%Base: 21.8%65%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

5%Base: 10%18%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

0.5%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF5.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Enterprise Value$26.74B

Simulated Equity Value$28.63B

Effective FCF Margin21.8%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $5.94B

Year 1$4.52B

FCF:$984.8M

PV:$895.2M

Year 2$5.67B

FCF:$1.24B

PV:$1.02B

Year 3$7.13B

FCF:$1.55B

PV:$1.17B

Year 4$8.95B

FCF:$1.95B

PV:$1.33B

Year 5$11.24B

FCF:$2.45B

PV:$1.52B

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$26.74B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $5.94B (22.2%)Terminal PV: $20.80B (77.8%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$1.90B

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$0

(=) Implied Equity Value (201.8M shs)$28.63B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied DCF sensitivity across 25 valuation states.

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$31.74B +11%	$33.69B +18%	$35.95B +26%	$38.63B +35%	$41.85B +46%
9.3%	$28.59B -0%	$30.13B +5%	$31.88B +11%	$33.92B +18%	$36.32B +27%
10.0%	$26.01B -9%	$27.24B -5%	$28.63B +0%	$30.23B +6%	$32.07B +12%
10.8%	$23.85B -17%	$24.85B -13%	$25.98B -9%	$27.26B -5%	$28.71B +0%
11.5%	$22.02B -23%	$22.85B -20%	$23.78B -17%	$24.81B -13%	$25.98B -9%

5-Year Financial Forecast

Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Reported Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$3.60B	$3.60B	$4.52B	$5.67B	$7.13B	$8.95B	$11.24B
Gross Profit	$2.73B	$2.73B	$3.42B	$4.30B	$5.40B	$6.78B	$8.52B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$399.2M	$399.2M	$501.4M	$629.8M	$791.0M	$993.5M	$1.25B
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$410.0M	$410.0M	$515.0M	$646.8M	$812.4M	$1.02B	$1.28B
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$784.0M	$784.0M	$984.8M	$1.24B	$1.55B	$1.95B	$2.45B
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$374.0M	$374.0M	$469.8M	$590.1M	$741.1M	$930.8M	$1.17B

Fundamental Quality Breakdown

Software Quality Scorecard (86/100 · Grade A)

High-Quality Compounder

Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.

Cash Conversion25 / 25

Actual: 196% of EBITTarget: Target: ≥100%

Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%

Dilution Friction16 / 25

Actual: 11.4% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees

Unit Economics20 / 25

Actual: 76% GM / R40: 47%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability

Balance Sheet25 / 25

Actual: +$1.90B Net CashTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Zero-debt fortress balance sheet with abundant net cash liquidity

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 196% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
Healthy unit economics: 75.8% gross margin
Fortress capital structure: Zero debt and $1.90B in pure net cash

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into OCTV?

Fairly Priced to Fundamentals

Market implies 27.3% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (38.6% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

27.3%

Required to justify $28.41B EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

25.6%

Reported multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

+1.7%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

23.2%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (11.4% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 38.6% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $28.41B EV on a true economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle38.6%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+11.3% / yr

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software - Application Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = 7.3 + 0.05 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 12%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

OCTV Actual vs. Reg. Multiple7.9× vs 9.7× fair

Peer Multiple Spread18.2% Discount

OCTVOctave Intelligence plc·Rule of 40: 47.4%·Actual EV/Rev: 7.9×·Regression Fair Multiple: 9.7×

18.2% Below Trendline (Attractive)Open OCTV Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
Octave Intelligence plc	OCTV	$30.31B	$3.60B	75.8%	21.8%	47.4%	11.4%	7.9×
Grab Holdings Limited	GRAB	$20.18B	$2.80B	42.0%	27.7%	84.0%	10.0%	6.3×
Figma, Inc.	FIG	$18.07B	$749.0M	88.3%	-9.2%	39.1%	126.5%	23.5×
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.	YMM	$71.73B	$11.24B	86.6%	25.8%	70.2%	4.4%	5.9×
ServiceTitan, Inc.	TTAN	$9.97B	$771.9M	64.9%	2.0%	30.5%	21.2%	12.5×
InterDigital, Inc.	IDCC	$8.65B	$868.5M	80.5%	30.6%	55.3%	5.3%	9.9×
OPEN TEXT CORP	OTEX	$8.11B	$5.30B	63.5%	13.0%	23.8%	2.0%	2.6×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				72.7%	19.4%	47.2%	7.6%	8.1×

Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Delta vs Base
Current Multiple	7.9×	$28.41B	$30.31B	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	6.3×	$22.73B	$24.63B	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	5.1×	$18.47B	$20.37B	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$17.98B	$19.88B	-36.7%

Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV) Valuation

What is Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV)'s intrinsic 5-year DCF valuation?

Based on modeled estimates (SEC filing data not yet available) and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV) has a Base Case 5-year DCF Enterprise Value of $26.74B and an implied Equity Value of $28.63B (ranging from $12.35B in the Bear Case to $52.82B in the Bull Case). The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

Octave Intelligence plc achieves a Rule of 40 score of 47.4%, combining a 25.6% revenue growth run-rate with a 21.8% TTM free cash flow margin on $3.60B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software - Application peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 47.2%.

What revenue growth rate is required under OCTV's Reverse-DCF analysis?

At a 5-year DCF Enterprise Value of $28.41B, our Reverse-DCF solver indicates a 5-year implied revenue CAGR hurdle of 27.3%, compared to Octave Intelligence plc's historical CAGR of 25.6%. Overall expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".

What is Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV)'s R&D Return Score and innovation productivity?

Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV) R&D productivity is evaluated alongside 174 ranked software companies on the Golden Door R&D Return Benchmark.

How does Octave Intelligence plc compare to Software - Application peers?

Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 86/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software - Application peer group (GRAB, FIG, YMM, TTAN, IDCC), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 8.1× and a median gross margin of 72.7%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV)'s valuation?

Octave Intelligence plc recorded $410.0M in TTM stock-based compensation (11.4% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Octave Intelligence plc's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.2%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

Sector Coverage Universe

View All Coverage

GRABGrab Holdings Limited

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

FIGFigma, Inc.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

TTANServiceTitan, Inc.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown

IDCCInterDigital, Inc.

DCF Valuation, Rule of 40 & SEC Filing Teardown