ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) currently trades at $45.00 with an enterprise value of $1.88B. Our proprietary institutional model rates ACM Research, Inc. at 77/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 27.1% vs. historical growth of 17.3% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test ACMR's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $45.00).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $35.18 -22% | $37.27 -17% | $39.71 -12% | $42.59 -5% | $46.04 +2% |
| 9.3% | $31.79 -29% | $33.43 -26% | $35.32 -22% | $37.51 -17% | $40.08 -11% |
| 10.0% | $29.00 -36% | $30.32 -33% | $31.82 -29% | $33.53 -25% | $35.51 -21% |
| 10.8% | $26.66 -41% | $27.74 -38% | $28.96 -36% | $30.32 -33% | $31.88 -29% |
| 11.5% | $24.68 -45% | $25.58 -43% | $26.58 -41% | $27.69 -38% | $28.94 -36% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (77/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 2800% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Healthy unit economics: 77.1% gross margin
- Net cash positive: $143.1M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Substantial SBC dilution drag: SBC is 18.8% of revenue ($63.3M)
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ACMR?
The current share price demands 27.1% 5-year CAGR (45.7% net of SBC & dilution)—a +9.8% acceleration over historical run-rate (17.3%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (18.8% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 45.7% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $45.00/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $336.8M | $336.8M | $395.0M | $463.3M | $543.5M | $637.5M | $747.8M |
| Gross Profit | $259.6M | $259.6M | $304.6M | $357.2M | $419.0M | $491.5M | $576.6M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $2.7M | $2.7M | $3.2M | $3.7M | $4.3M | $5.1M | $6.0M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $63.3M | $63.3M | $74.3M | $87.1M | $102.2M | $119.9M | $140.6M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $75.4M | $75.4M | $88.5M | $103.8M | $121.7M | $142.8M | $167.5M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $12.1M | $12.1M | $14.2M | $16.7M | $19.6M | $23.0M | $26.9M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -20.7 + 0.64 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 71%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACM Research, Inc. | ACMR | $2.86B | $336.8M | 77.1% | 22.4% | 39.7% | 18.8% | 8.1× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 8.1× | $2.72B | $2.86B | $45.00 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 6.5× | $2.18B | $2.32B | $36.45 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 5.2× | $1.77B | $1.91B | $30.04 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.68B | $1.83B | $28.72 | -38.1% |
Frequently Asked Questions: ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) Valuation
What is ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) has a Base Case implied value of $31.82 per share (with a Bear Case of $15.69 and a Bull Case of $53.43), compared to its current price of $45.00. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
ACM Research, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 39.7%, combining a 17.3% revenue growth run-rate with a 22.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $336.8M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into ACMR stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $45.00 per share (Enterprise Value of $2.72B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 27.1%, compared to ACM Research, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 17.3%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does ACM Research, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 77/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR)'s valuation?
ACM Research, Inc. recorded $63.3M in TTM stock-based compensation (18.8% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, ACM Research, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.4%, scoring 10/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.