Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) currently trades at $42.51 with an enterprise value of $4.49B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Amkor Technology, Inc. at 58/100 (Grade: B · Mixed Fundamental Profile). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of -1.5% vs. historical growth of 20.0% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test AMKR's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $42.51).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $63.24 +49% | $67.32 +58% | $72.07 +70% | $77.69 +83% | $84.44 +99% |
| 9.3% | $56.60 +33% | $59.81 +41% | $63.50 +49% | $67.78 +59% | $72.80 +71% |
| 10.0% | $51.15 +20% | $53.73 +26% | $56.65 +33% | $60.00 +41% | $63.86 +50% |
| 10.8% | $46.58 +10% | $48.69 +15% | $51.06 +20% | $53.73 +26% | $56.77 +34% |
| 11.5% | $42.71 +0% | $44.46 +5% | $46.41 +9% | $48.58 +14% | $51.03 +20% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (58/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 0.3% of revenue
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (14.8%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into AMKR?
The current share price only requires -1.5% 5-year CAGR (-1.2% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 20.0%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (0.3% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.0%/yr). Accounting for both requires -1.2% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $42.51/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.32B | $6.32B | $7.27B | $8.36B | $9.61B | $11.05B | $12.71B |
| Gross Profit | $933.2M | $933.1M | $1.07B | $1.23B | $1.42B | $1.63B | $1.88B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $438.5M | $438.4M | $504.2M | $579.8M | $666.8M | $766.8M | $881.9M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $18.4M | $18.3M | $21.1M | $24.2M | $27.9M | $32.0M | $36.9M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $197.2M | $197.1M | $226.7M | $260.7M | $299.8M | $344.8M | $396.5M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $178.9M | $178.8M | $205.6M | $236.5M | $271.9M | $312.7M | $359.6M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -11.8 + 0.47 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 73%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amkor Technology, Inc. | AMKR | $10.51B | $6.32B | 14.8% | 3.1% | 23.1% | 0.3% | 1.7× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 1.7× | $10.90B | $10.51B | $42.51 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 1.4× | $8.72B | $8.33B | $33.69 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.1× | $7.09B | $6.69B | $27.07 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $31.59B | $31.19B | $126.19 | +189.7% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) Valuation
What is Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) has a Base Case implied value of $16.58 per share (with a Bear Case of $7.03 and a Bull Case of $28.93), compared to its current price of $42.51. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Amkor Technology, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 23.1%, combining a 20.0% revenue growth run-rate with a 3.1% TTM free cash flow margin on $6.32B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into AMKR stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $42.51 per share (Enterprise Value of $10.90B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of -1.5%, compared to Amkor Technology, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 20.0%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does Amkor Technology, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 58/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR)'s valuation?
Amkor Technology, Inc. recorded $18.4M in TTM stock-based compensation (0.3% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Amkor Technology, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.7%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.
