Research HubSoftware & Cloud ServicesArrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)

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SEC 10-K / 10-Q Equity ResearchSoftware & Cloud ServicesTicker: ARW

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) currently trades at $112.98 with an enterprise value of $6.20B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Arrow Electronics, Inc. at 74/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 22.4% vs. historical growth of 25.9% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).

GDA Quality Score

B+74/100

Quality Software Operator

Share Price / DCF Base

$112.98 / $127.52

Enterprise Value

$5.45B

TTM Revenue

$855.8M (+25.9%)

Gross Margin

73.5%

Rule of 40 Score

46.9%

EV / TTM Revenue

6.4×

Structural Moat: Enterprise Software & Cloud Services Switching Costs & Recurring Workflow Integration

Key Growth Catalyst: AI workflow automation, multi-module expansion across enterprise cohorts, and operating margin leverage at Arrow Electronics, Inc..

Institutional fundamental teardown of Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.

Seed ARW in Interactive 3-Statement Model

Section 1 · Intrinsic Valuation Engine

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Terminal Growth: 2.5% · Diluted Shares: 51.5M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

$53.99

Implied Equity Value:$2.78B

vs Current ($112.98):-52.2%

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$127.52

Implied Equity Value:$6.57B

vs Current ($112.98):+12.9%

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$237.15

Implied Equity Value:$12.22B

vs Current ($112.98):+109.9%

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 46.9%

Stress-test ARW's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

5Y Revenue CAGR25.9%

2%Hist: 25.9%50%

Target FCF Margin21.0%

5%Base: 21%45%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

6.5%Base: 10%14.5%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

1.0%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF4.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Implied Price$127.52

Spread vs Market+12.9%

Simulated EV$6.20B

Effective FCF Margin21.0%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $1.37B

Year 1$1.08B

FCF:$226.3M

PV:$205.7M

Year 2$1.36B

FCF:$284.9M

PV:$235.4M

Year 3$1.71B

FCF:$358.7M

PV:$269.5M

Year 4$2.15B

FCF:$451.6M

PV:$308.4M

Year 5$2.71B

FCF:$568.5M

PV:$353.0M

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$6.20B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $1.37B (22.1%)Terminal PV: $4.82B (77.9%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$372.3M

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$0

(=) Implied Equity Value (51.5M shs)$6.57B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $112.98).

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$141.52 +25%	$150.27 +33%	$160.48 +42%	$172.55 +53%	$187.03 +66%
9.3%	$127.34 +13%	$134.24 +19%	$142.15 +26%	$151.33 +34%	$162.11 +43%
10.0%	$115.70 +2%	$121.24 +7%	$127.52 +13%	$134.70 +19%	$142.98 +27%
10.8%	$105.96 -6%	$110.50 -2%	$115.58 +2%	$121.31 +7%	$127.84 +13%
11.5%	$97.72 -14%	$101.48 -10%	$105.65 -6%	$110.32 -2%	$115.57 +2%

Section 2 · Fundamental Underwriting

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (74/100 · Grade B+)

Quality Software Operator

Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.

Cash Conversion13 / 25

Actual: 21.0% marginTarget: Target: ≥100%

Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing

Dilution Friction16 / 25

Actual: 12.6% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees

Unit Economics20 / 25

Actual: 74% GM / R40: 47%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability

Balance Sheet25 / 25

Actual: +$372.3M Net CashTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Zero-debt fortress balance sheet with abundant net cash liquidity

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Healthy unit economics: 73.5% gross margin
Fortress capital structure: Zero debt and $372.3M in pure net cash

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Section 3 · Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ARW?

Fairly Priced to Fundamentals

Market implies 22.4% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (35.0% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

22.4%

Required to justify $5.45B EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

25.9%

Audited multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

-3.5%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

18.5%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Institutional Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (12.6% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 35.0% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $112.98/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle35.0%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+12.5% / yr

Section 4 · 5-Year Forecast Schedule

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Audited Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$855.8M	$855.8M	$1.08B	$1.36B	$1.71B	$2.15B	$2.71B
Gross Profit	$629.0M	$629.0M	$791.9M	$997.1M	$1.26B	$1.58B	$1.99B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$-21.4M	$-21.4M	$-26.9M	$-33.9M	$-42.7M	$-53.8M	$-67.7M
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$107.8M	$107.8M	$135.8M	$170.9M	$215.2M	$270.9M	$341.1M
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$179.7M	$179.7M	$226.3M	$284.9M	$358.7M	$451.6M	$568.5M
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$71.9M	$71.9M	$90.5M	$114.0M	$143.5M	$180.6M	$227.4M

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -31.9 + 0.85 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 81%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

ARW Actual vs. Reg. Multiple6.4× vs 7.7× fair

Reg.-Implied Share Price$135.75 (17.7% Discount)

ARWArrow Electronics, Inc.·Rule of 40: 46.9%·Actual EV/Rev: 6.4×·Regression Fair Multiple: 7.7×

17.7% Below Trendline (Attractive)Open ARW Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
Arrow Electronics, Inc.	ARW	$5.82B	$855.8M	73.5%	21.0%	46.9%	12.6%	6.4×
ServiceNow	NOW	$152.61B	$10.98B	79.2%	31.1%	54.2%	15.9%	13.9×
Workday, Inc.	WDAY	$50.35B	$8.00B	75.0%	27.4%	43.9%	19.0%	6.4×
Salesforce	CRM	$217.10B	$37.90B	77.2%	32.8%	42.8%	8.4%	5.8×
Datadog	DDOG	$46.05B	$2.68B	80.8%	31.1%	57.7%	21.3%	17.4×
Snowflake Inc.	SNOW	$71.79B	$3.63B	66.5%	25.2%	57.7%	40.8%	20.0×
Hubspot	HUBS	$19.89B	$2.63B	85.0%	21.3%	52.7%	19.2%	7.7×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				78.2%	29.2%	53.5%	19.1%	10.8×

Section 6 · Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Implied Share Price	Delta vs Current
Current Multiple	6.4×	$5.45B	$5.82B	$112.98	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	5.1×	$4.36B	$4.73B	$91.83	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	4.1×	$3.54B	$3.91B	$75.97	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$4.28B	$4.65B	$90.30	-21.4%

Section 7 · Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) Valuation

What is Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) has a Base Case implied value of $127.52 per share (with a Bear Case of $53.99 and a Bull Case of $237.15), compared to its current price of $112.98. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

Arrow Electronics, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 46.9%, combining a 25.9% revenue growth run-rate with a 21.0% TTM free cash flow margin on $855.8M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.

What revenue growth rate is priced into ARW stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

At $112.98 per share (Enterprise Value of $5.45B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 22.4%, compared to Arrow Electronics, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 25.9%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".

How does Arrow Electronics, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 74/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)'s valuation?

Arrow Electronics, Inc. recorded $107.8M in TTM stock-based compensation (12.6% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Arrow Electronics, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.2%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

WACC \ Terminal

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

8.5%

$141.52

+25%

$150.27

+33%

$160.48

+42%

$172.55

+53%

$187.03

+66%

9.3%

$127.34

+13%

$134.24

+19%

$142.15

+26%

$151.33

+34%

$162.11

+43%

10.0%

$115.70

+2%

$121.24

+7%

$127.52

+13%

$134.70

+19%

$142.98

+27%

10.8%

$105.96

-6%

$110.50

-2%

$115.58

+2%

$121.31

+7%

$127.84

+13%

11.5%

$97.72

-14%

$101.48

-10%

$105.65

-6%

$110.32

-2%

$115.57

+2%

Statement Line Item

TTM Audited Base

TTM

Revenue

$855.8M

$1.08B

$1.36B

$1.71B

$2.15B

$2.71B

Gross Profit

$629.0M

$791.9M

$997.1M

$1.26B

$1.58B

$1.99B

Operating Income (EBIT)

$-21.4M

$-26.9M

$-33.9M

$-42.7M

$-53.8M

$-67.7M

Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)

$107.8M

$135.8M

$170.9M

$215.2M

$270.9M

$341.1M

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)

$179.7M

$226.3M

$284.9M

$358.7M

$451.6M

$568.5M

SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow

$71.9M

$90.5M

$114.0M

$143.5M

$180.6M

$227.4M

Company

Ticker

Market Cap

TTM Revenue

Gross Margin

FCF Margin

Rule of 40

SBC % Rev

EV / Rev

Arrow Electronics, Inc.

ARW

$5.82B

$855.8M

73.5%

21.0%

46.9%

12.6%

6.4×

ServiceNow

NOW

$152.61B

$10.98B

79.2%

31.1%

54.2%

15.9%

13.9×

Workday, Inc.

WDAY

$50.35B

$8.00B

75.0%

27.4%

43.9%

19.0%

6.4×

Salesforce

CRM

$217.10B

$37.90B

77.2%

32.8%

42.8%

8.4%

5.8×

Datadog

DDOG

$46.05B

$2.68B

80.8%

31.1%

57.7%

21.3%

17.4×

Snowflake Inc.

SNOW

$71.79B

$3.63B

66.5%

25.2%

57.7%

40.8%

20.0×

Hubspot

HUBS

$19.89B

$2.63B

85.0%

21.3%

52.7%

19.2%

7.7×

Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)

78.2%

29.2%

53.5%

19.1%

10.8×

Multiple Scenario

EV / Revenue

Implied Enterprise Value

Implied Equity Value

Implied Share Price

Delta vs Current

Current Multiple

6.4×

$5.45B

$5.82B

$112.98

0.0%

-20% Multiple Compression

5.1×

$4.36B

$4.73B

$91.83

-20.0%

-35% Multiple Compression

4.1×

$3.54B

$3.91B

$75.97

-35.0%

Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)

5.0×

$4.28B

$4.65B

$90.30

-21.4%

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (74/100 · Grade B+)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ARW?

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) Valuation

What is Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into ARW stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does Arrow Electronics, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (74/100 · Grade B+)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ARW?

Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW) Valuation

What is Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into ARW stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does Arrow Electronics, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Arrow Electronics, Inc. (ARW)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports