ASURE SOFTWARE INC (ASUR) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
ASURE SOFTWARE INC (ASUR) currently trades at $168.02 with an enterprise value of $-353.5M. Our proprietary institutional model rates ASURE SOFTWARE INC at 53/100 (Grade: B · Mixed Fundamental Profile). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 189.5% vs. historical growth of 16.3% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Asure Software, Inc. (ASUR) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
ASURE SOFTWARE INC (ASUR) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (53/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
Solid gross margins with potential for operating leverage at scale
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Negative free cash flow burn of $-14.7M over trailing twelve months
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into ASUR?
The current share price demands 189.5% 5-year CAGR—a +173.2% acceleration over historical run-rate (16.3%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
ASURE SOFTWARE INC (ASUR) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $119.8M | $119.8M | $139.3M | $162.0M | $188.4M | $219.1M | $254.8M |
| Gross Profit | $82.1M | $82.1M | $95.5M | $111.0M | $129.1M | $150.2M | $174.6M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-10.7M | $-10.7M | $-12.5M | $-14.5M | $-16.9M | $-19.6M | $-22.8M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $6.4M | $6.4M | $7.5M | $8.7M | $10.1M | $11.8M | $13.7M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $-14.7M | $-14.7M | $-17.1M | $-19.9M | $-23.2M | $-27.0M | $-31.4M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $-21.2M | $-21.2M | $-24.6M | $-28.7M | $-33.3M | $-38.8M | $-45.1M |
Collaboration, Document & Work Management Peer Comparables Matrix
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASURE SOFTWARE INC | ASUR | $34.61B | $119.8M | 68.5% | -12.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 288.9× |
| Zoom Video Communications | ZM | $17.84B | $1.58B | 72.8% | 20.8% | 43.2% | 12.5% | 11.0× |
| DocuSign, Inc. | DOCU | $29.38B | $3.57B | 75.7% | 21.7% | 45.5% | 17.2% | 7.7× |
| Asana, Inc. | ASAN | $17.86B | $2.01B | 79.5% | 23.3% | 39.0% | 13.3% | 8.4× |
| Atlassian Corporation | TEAM | $10.00B | $774.5M | 77.7% | 22.6% | 41.7% | 13.1% | 12.3× |
| Twilio Inc. | TWLO | $38.62B | $2.83B | 80.7% | 27.3% | 51.3% | 17.8% | 12.9× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=5) | 77.7% | 22.6% | 43.2% | 13.3% | 11.0× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 288.9× | $34.61B | $34.61B | $168.02 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 231.1× | $27.69B | $27.69B | $134.42 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 187.8× | $22.50B | $22.50B | $109.22 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $599.0M | $602.7M | $2.93 | -98.3% |
Frequently Asked Questions: ASURE SOFTWARE INC (ASUR) Valuation
What is ASURE SOFTWARE INC (ASUR)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, ASURE SOFTWARE INC (ASUR) has a Base Case implied value of -$1.70 per share (with a Bear Case of -$0.78 and a Bull Case of -$2.91), compared to its current price of $168.02. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is ASURE SOFTWARE INC (ASUR)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
ASURE SOFTWARE INC achieves a Rule of 40 score of 4.0%, combining a 16.3% revenue growth run-rate with a -12.3% TTM free cash flow margin on $119.8M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Collaboration, Document & Work Management peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 43.2%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into ASUR stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $168.02 per share (Enterprise Value of $34.61B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 189.5%, compared to ASURE SOFTWARE INC's historical CAGR of 16.3%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does ASURE SOFTWARE INC compare to Collaboration, Document & Work Management software peers?
ASURE SOFTWARE INC (ASUR) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 53/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Collaboration, Document & Work Management peer group (ZM, DOCU, ASAN, TEAM, TWLO), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 11.0× and a median gross margin of 77.7%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact ASURE SOFTWARE INC (ASUR)'s valuation?
ASURE SOFTWARE INC recorded $6.4M in TTM stock-based compensation (5.4% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, ASURE SOFTWARE INC's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -0.1%, scoring 21/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.