Alteryx, Inc. (AYX) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Alteryx, Inc. (AYX) currently trades at $48.26 with an enterprise value of $3.81B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Alteryx, Inc. at 88/100 (Grade: A+ · Elite SaaS Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 18.6% vs. historical growth of 22.6% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Alteryx, Inc. (AYX) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Alteryx, Inc. (AYX) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test AYX's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $48.26).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $61.61 +28% | $65.36 +35% | $69.74 +45% | $74.91 +55% | $81.11 +68% |
| 9.3% | $55.53 +15% | $58.48 +21% | $61.87 +28% | $65.81 +36% | $70.43 +46% |
| 10.0% | $50.53 +5% | $52.90 +10% | $55.60 +15% | $58.67 +22% | $62.22 +29% |
| 10.8% | $46.35 -4% | $48.29 +0% | $50.47 +5% | $52.93 +10% | $55.73 +15% |
| 11.5% | $42.81 -11% | $44.42 -8% | $46.21 -4% | $48.21 -0% | $50.46 +5% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (88/100 · Grade A+)
Exceptional unit economics, disciplined equity dilution, and fortress balance sheet.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 1000% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 78.6% gross margin and 45.6% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $255.6M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into AYX?
Market implies 18.6% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (30.3% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (13.2% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 30.3% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $48.26/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Alteryx, Inc. (AYX) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $542.8M | $542.8M | $665.4M | $815.8M | $1.00B | $1.23B | $1.50B |
| Gross Profit | $426.6M | $426.6M | $523.0M | $641.2M | $786.1M | $963.8M | $1.18B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $12.5M | $12.5M | $15.3M | $18.8M | $23.0M | $28.2M | $34.6M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $71.6M | $71.6M | $87.8M | $107.7M | $132.0M | $161.9M | $198.4M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $124.8M | $124.8M | $153.0M | $187.6M | $230.0M | $282.0M | $345.8M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $53.2M | $53.2M | $65.2M | $79.9M | $98.0M | $120.2M | $147.3M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -31.4 + 0.84 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 82%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alteryx, Inc. | AYX | $3.53B | $542.8M | 78.6% | 23.0% | 45.6% | 13.2% | 6.0× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 6.0× | $3.27B | $3.53B | $48.26 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 4.8× | $2.62B | $2.87B | $39.31 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.9× | $2.13B | $2.38B | $32.59 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $2.71B | $2.97B | $40.62 | -17.1% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Alteryx, Inc. (AYX) Valuation
What is Alteryx, Inc. (AYX)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Alteryx, Inc. (AYX) has a Base Case implied value of $55.60 per share (with a Bear Case of $24.97 and a Bull Case of $99.50), compared to its current price of $48.26. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Alteryx, Inc. (AYX)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Alteryx, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 45.6%, combining a 22.6% revenue growth run-rate with a 23.0% TTM free cash flow margin on $542.8M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into AYX stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $48.26 per share (Enterprise Value of $3.27B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 18.6%, compared to Alteryx, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 22.6%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Alteryx, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Alteryx, Inc. (AYX) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 88/100 (Grade A+ — Elite SaaS Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Alteryx, Inc. (AYX)'s valuation?
Alteryx, Inc. recorded $71.6M in TTM stock-based compensation (13.2% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Alteryx, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.5%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.