Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS) currently trades at $113.10 with an enterprise value of $9.38B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Brooks Automation, Inc. at 74/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 15.6% vs. historical growth of 22.4% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test BRKS's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $113.10).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $159.75 +41% | $169.51 +50% | $180.90 +60% | $194.36 +72% | $210.50 +86% |
| 9.3% | $143.91 +27% | $151.60 +34% | $160.43 +42% | $170.67 +51% | $182.69 +62% |
| 10.0% | $130.90 +16% | $137.08 +21% | $144.09 +27% | $152.10 +34% | $161.34 +43% |
| 10.8% | $120.03 +6% | $125.08 +11% | $130.75 +16% | $137.15 +21% | $144.43 +28% |
| 11.5% | $110.81 -2% | $115.00 +2% | $119.66 +6% | $124.86 +10% | $130.72 +16% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (74/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Zero-debt fortress balance sheet with abundant net cash liquidity
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Healthy unit economics: 72.4% gross margin
- Fortress capital structure: Zero debt and $581.7M in pure net cash
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into BRKS?
Market implies 15.6% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (27.8% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (12.5% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 27.8% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $113.10/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.50B | $1.50B | $1.84B | $2.25B | $2.76B | $3.37B | $4.13B |
| Gross Profit | $1.09B | $1.09B | $1.33B | $1.63B | $2.00B | $2.44B | $2.99B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-54.1M | $-54.1M | $-66.2M | $-81.1M | $-99.2M | $-121.4M | $-148.7M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $187.9M | $187.9M | $230.0M | $281.5M | $344.5M | $421.7M | $516.1M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $309.6M | $309.6M | $379.0M | $463.9M | $567.8M | $694.9M | $850.6M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $121.7M | $121.7M | $149.0M | $182.4M | $223.2M | $273.3M | $334.5M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -30.4 + 0.82 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 83%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Automation, Inc. | BRKS | $7.82B | $1.50B | 72.4% | 20.6% | 43.0% | 12.5% | 4.8× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 4.8× | $7.23B | $7.82B | $113.10 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 3.9× | $5.79B | $6.37B | $92.16 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.1× | $4.70B | $5.28B | $76.46 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $7.51B | $8.10B | $117.17 | +3.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS) Valuation
What is Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS) has a Base Case implied value of $144.09 per share (with a Bear Case of $64.53 and a Bull Case of $257.86), compared to its current price of $113.10. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Brooks Automation, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 43.0%, combining a 22.4% revenue growth run-rate with a 20.6% TTM free cash flow margin on $1.50B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into BRKS stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $113.10 per share (Enterprise Value of $7.23B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 15.6%, compared to Brooks Automation, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 22.4%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Brooks Automation, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 74/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Brooks Automation, Inc. (BRKS)'s valuation?
Brooks Automation, Inc. recorded $187.9M in TTM stock-based compensation (12.5% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Brooks Automation, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.6%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.
