Webull Corp (BULL) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Webull Corp (BULL) currently trades at $8.56 with an enterprise value of $2.27B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Webull Corp at 81/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 11.9% vs. historical growth of 0.2% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Webull Corporation Class A Ordinary Shares (BULL) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Webull Corp (BULL) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test BULL's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $8.56).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $6.00 -30% | $6.32 -26% | $6.69 -22% | $7.13 -17% | $7.66 -11% |
| 9.3% | $5.48 -36% | $5.73 -33% | $6.02 -30% | $6.35 -26% | $6.75 -21% |
| 10.0% | $5.05 -41% | $5.25 -39% | $5.48 -36% | $5.74 -33% | $6.04 -29% |
| 10.8% | $4.69 -45% | $4.85 -43% | $5.04 -41% | $5.25 -39% | $5.48 -36% |
| 11.5% | $4.38 -49% | $4.52 -47% | $4.67 -45% | $4.84 -43% | $5.03 -41% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (81/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 79.7% gross margin and 47.1% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $255.3M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into BULL?
The current share price demands 11.9% 5-year CAGR (14.2% net of SBC & dilution)—a +11.6% acceleration over historical run-rate (0.2%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (8.4% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.0%/yr). Accounting for both requires 14.2% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $8.56/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Webull Corp (BULL) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $390.2M | $390.2M | $391.2M | $392.1M | $393.0M | $394.0M | $394.9M |
| Gross Profit | $310.9M | $310.9M | $311.7M | $312.4M | $313.2M | $313.9M | $314.7M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-14.4M | $-14.4M | $-14.4M | $-14.4M | $-14.5M | $-14.5M | $-14.5M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $32.6M | $32.6M | $32.7M | $32.7M | $32.8M | $32.9M | $33.0M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $182.8M | $182.8M | $183.3M | $183.7M | $184.1M | $184.6M | $185.0M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $150.2M | $150.2M | $150.6M | $151.0M | $151.3M | $151.7M | $152.0M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -29.1 + 0.80 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 79%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Webull Corp | BULL | $3.93B | $390.2M | 79.7% | 46.9% | 47.1% | 8.3% | 9.4× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 9.4× | $3.68B | $3.93B | $8.56 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 7.5× | $2.94B | $3.20B | $6.96 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 6.1× | $2.39B | $2.65B | $5.76 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.95B | $2.21B | $4.80 | -46.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Webull Corp (BULL) Valuation
What is Webull Corp (BULL)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Webull Corp (BULL) has a Base Case implied value of $5.49 per share (with a Bear Case of $3.75 and a Bull Case of $7.24), compared to its current price of $8.56. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Webull Corp (BULL)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Webull Corp achieves a Rule of 40 score of 47.1%, combining a 0.2% revenue growth run-rate with a 46.8% TTM free cash flow margin on $390.2M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into BULL stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $8.56 per share (Enterprise Value of $3.68B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 11.9%, compared to Webull Corp's historical CAGR of 0.2%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does Webull Corp compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Webull Corp (BULL) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 81/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Webull Corp (BULL)'s valuation?
Webull Corp recorded $32.6M in TTM stock-based compensation (8.4% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Webull Corp's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 3.8%, scoring 21/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.