CACI International Inc (CACI) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
CACI International Inc (CACI) currently trades at $568.63 with an enterprise value of $8.74B. Our proprietary institutional model rates CACI International Inc at 58/100 (Grade: B · Mixed Fundamental Profile). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 24.5% vs. historical growth of 9.3% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of CACI International Inc (CACI) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
CACI International Inc (CACI) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test CACI's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $568.63).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $641.34 +13% | $689.68 +21% | $746.07 +31% | $812.72 +43% | $892.69 +57% |
| 9.3% | $562.39 -1% | $600.46 +6% | $644.18 +13% | $694.90 +22% | $754.43 +33% |
| 10.0% | $497.43 -13% | $528.04 -7% | $562.74 -1% | $602.39 +6% | $648.14 +14% |
| 10.8% | $443.06 -22% | $468.09 -18% | $496.16 -13% | $527.85 -7% | $563.90 -1% |
| 11.5% | $396.91 -30% | $417.66 -27% | $440.73 -22% | $466.51 -18% | $495.51 -13% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (58/100 · Grade B)
Viable recurring software business but carries notable dilution, lower margins, or higher leverage.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Low dilution friction: SBC is only 0.7% of revenue
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Lower software gross margins (8.9%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into CACI?
The current share price demands 24.5% 5-year CAGR (22.7% net of SBC & dilution)—a +15.2% acceleration over historical run-rate (9.3%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (0.7% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.1%/yr). Accounting for both requires 22.7% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $568.63/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
CACI International Inc (CACI) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.63B | $8.63B | $9.43B | $10.31B | $11.27B | $12.32B | $13.46B |
| Gross Profit | $764.2M | $764.4M | $835.6M | $913.4M | $998.4M | $1.09B | $1.19B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $764.2M | $764.4M | $835.6M | $913.4M | $998.4M | $1.09B | $1.19B |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $60.2M | $60.4M | $66.0M | $72.2M | $78.9M | $86.2M | $94.3M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $481.4M | $481.4M | $526.3M | $575.2M | $628.8M | $687.3M | $751.3M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $421.2M | $421.0M | $460.2M | $503.1M | $549.9M | $601.1M | $657.1M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -6.3 + 0.36 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 66%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CACI International Inc | CACI | $12.55B | $8.63B | 8.9% | 5.6% | 14.9% | 0.7% | 1.8× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 1.8× | $15.78B | $12.55B | $568.63 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 1.5× | $12.63B | $9.40B | $425.66 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 1.2× | $10.26B | $7.03B | $318.42 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $43.14B | $39.91B | $1,807.67 | +173.3% |
Frequently Asked Questions: CACI International Inc (CACI) Valuation
What is CACI International Inc (CACI)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, CACI International Inc (CACI) has a Base Case implied value of $249.53 per share (with a Bear Case of $64.30 and a Bull Case of $469.96), compared to its current price of $568.63. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is CACI International Inc (CACI)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
CACI International Inc achieves a Rule of 40 score of 14.9%, combining a 9.3% revenue growth run-rate with a 5.6% TTM free cash flow margin on $8.63B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into CACI stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $568.63 per share (Enterprise Value of $15.78B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 24.5%, compared to CACI International Inc's historical CAGR of 9.3%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does CACI International Inc compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
CACI International Inc (CACI) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 58/100 (Grade B — Mixed Fundamental Profile). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact CACI International Inc (CACI)'s valuation?
CACI International Inc recorded $60.2M in TTM stock-based compensation (0.7% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, CACI International Inc's SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 3.4%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.