Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) currently trades at $123.88 with an enterprise value of $6.64B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Camtek Ltd. at 77/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 14.9% vs. historical growth of 20.3% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test CAMT's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $123.88).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $168.08 +36% | $178.47 +44% | $190.60 +54% | $204.93 +65% | $222.13 +79% |
| 9.3% | $151.19 +22% | $159.38 +29% | $168.79 +36% | $179.69 +45% | $192.50 +55% |
| 10.0% | $137.32 +11% | $143.91 +16% | $151.37 +22% | $159.90 +29% | $169.73 +37% |
| 10.8% | $125.73 +1% | $131.11 +6% | $137.15 +11% | $143.96 +16% | $151.71 +22% |
| 11.5% | $115.89 -6% | $120.36 -3% | $125.32 +1% | $130.86 +6% | $137.10 +11% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (77/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Elevated equity dilution; SBC consumes substantial operating cash flow
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 202% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Healthy unit economics: 75.0% gross margin
- Net cash positive: $265.7M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Substantial SBC dilution drag: SBC is 17.1% of revenue ($193.4M)
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into CAMT?
Market implies 14.9% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (31.4% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (17.1% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 31.4% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $123.88/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.13B | $1.13B | $1.36B | $1.64B | $1.97B | $2.37B | $2.85B |
| Gross Profit | $848.1M | $848.1M | $1.02B | $1.23B | $1.48B | $1.78B | $2.14B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $117.6M | $117.6M | $141.5M | $170.2M | $204.7M | $246.3M | $296.3M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $193.4M | $193.4M | $232.6M | $279.8M | $336.6M | $405.0M | $487.2M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $237.5M | $237.5M | $285.7M | $343.7M | $413.4M | $497.3M | $598.3M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $44.1M | $44.1M | $53.1M | $63.8M | $76.8M | $92.4M | $111.1M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -28.3 + 0.78 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 83%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camtek Ltd. | CAMT | $5.65B | $1.13B | 75.0% | 21.0% | 41.3% | 17.1% | 4.8× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 4.8× | $5.39B | $5.65B | $123.88 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 3.8× | $4.31B | $4.58B | $100.27 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.1× | $3.50B | $3.77B | $82.56 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $5.65B | $5.92B | $129.70 | +4.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) Valuation
What is Camtek Ltd. (CAMT)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) has a Base Case implied value of $151.37 per share (with a Bear Case of $68.37 and a Bull Case of $267.04), compared to its current price of $123.88. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Camtek Ltd. (CAMT)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Camtek Ltd. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 41.3%, combining a 20.3% revenue growth run-rate with a 21.0% TTM free cash flow margin on $1.13B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into CAMT stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $123.88 per share (Enterprise Value of $5.39B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 14.9%, compared to Camtek Ltd.'s historical CAGR of 20.3%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Camtek Ltd. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Camtek Ltd. (CAMT) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 77/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Camtek Ltd. (CAMT)'s valuation?
Camtek Ltd. recorded $193.4M in TTM stock-based compensation (17.1% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Camtek Ltd.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.8%, scoring 10/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.
