CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK) currently trades at $12.30 with an enterprise value of $-113.84B. Our proprietary institutional model rates CleanSpark, Inc. at 40/100 (Grade: C · Capital Intensive / Low Margin). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 23.3% vs. historical growth of 110.2% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test CLSK's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $12.30).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $121.76 +890% | $130.60 +962% | $140.91 +1046% | $153.09 +1145% | $167.72 +1264% |
| 9.3% | $107.66 +775% | $114.62 +832% | $122.62 +897% | $131.89 +972% | $142.77 +1061% |
| 10.0% | $96.11 +681% | $101.71 +727% | $108.05 +778% | $115.30 +837% | $123.67 +905% |
| 10.8% | $86.49 +603% | $91.07 +640% | $96.20 +682% | $101.99 +729% | $108.59 +783% |
| 11.5% | $78.36 +537% | $82.16 +568% | $86.38 +602% | $91.09 +641% | $96.39 +684% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (40/100 · Grade C)
Weak cash conversion, substantial dilution drag, or constrained financial flexibility.
Negative free cash flow; business consumes cash to sustain operations
Disciplined equity compensation well below software industry average
Sub-par gross margins; higher cost of delivery or hardware/services mix
Leveraged balance sheet coupled with cash burn; heightened refinancing risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
- Negative free cash flow burn of $-605.7M over trailing twelve months
- Lower software gross margins (55.2%), indicating higher hosting or service delivery drag
- Balance sheet vulnerability: Net debt of $133.6M while operating with cash burn
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into CLSK?
The current share price only requires 23.3% 5-year CAGR (30.3% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 110.2%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (5.9% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.7%/yr). Accounting for both requires 30.3% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $12.30/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $766.3M | $766.3M | $1.38B | $2.48B | $4.47B | $8.04B | $14.48B |
| Gross Profit | $423.2M | $423.2M | $761.8M | $1.37B | $2.47B | $4.44B | $8.00B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $318.9M | $318.9M | $574.1M | $1.03B | $1.86B | $3.35B | $6.03B |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $45.3M | $45.4M | $81.7M | $147.0M | $264.6M | $476.2M | $857.2M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $-605.7M | $-605.7M | $-1.09B | $-1.96B | $-3.53B | $-6.36B | $-11.45B |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $-651.0M | $-651.1M | $-1.17B | $-2.11B | $-3.80B | $-6.83B | $-12.30B |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -14.8 + 0.53 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 70%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CleanSpark, Inc. | CLSK | $3.47B | $766.3M | 55.2% | -79.0% | 31.1% | 5.9% | 4.7× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 4.7× | $3.60B | $3.47B | $12.30 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 3.8× | $2.88B | $2.75B | $9.75 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 3.1× | $2.34B | $2.21B | $7.83 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $3.83B | $3.70B | $13.11 | +6.3% |
Frequently Asked Questions: CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK) Valuation
What is CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK) has a Base Case implied value of -$403.94 per share (with a Bear Case of -$75.99 and a Bull Case of -$1,146.74), compared to its current price of $12.30. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
CleanSpark, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 31.1%, combining a 110.2% revenue growth run-rate with a -79.0% TTM free cash flow margin on $766.3M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into CLSK stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $12.30 per share (Enterprise Value of $3.60B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 23.3%, compared to CleanSpark, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 110.2%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does CleanSpark, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 40/100 (Grade C — Capital Intensive / Low Margin). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact CleanSpark, Inc. (CLSK)'s valuation?
CleanSpark, Inc. recorded $45.3M in TTM stock-based compensation (5.9% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, CleanSpark, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is -18.8%, scoring 21/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.