Research HubSoftware & Cloud ServicesCORPAY, INC. (CPAY)

Coverage:KVYO DDOG CRWD NOW SNOW PLTR ADBE CRM PANW NET SHOP MDB

SEC 10-K / 10-Q Equity ResearchSoftware & Cloud ServicesTicker: CPAY

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) currently trades at $308.61 with an enterprise value of $29.99B. Our proprietary institutional model rates CORPAY, INC. at 80/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 6.6% vs. historical growth of 7.7% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).

GDA Quality Score

A80/100

High-Quality Compounder

Share Price / DCF Base

$308.61 / $327.69

Enterprise Value

$28.62B

TTM Revenue

$3.97B (+7.7%)

Gross Margin

78.1%

Rule of 40 Score

52.1%

EV / TTM Revenue

7.2×

Structural Moat: Enterprise Software & Cloud Services Switching Costs & Recurring Workflow Integration

Key Growth Catalyst: AI workflow automation, multi-module expansion across enterprise cohorts, and operating margin leverage at Corpay, Inc..

Institutional fundamental teardown of Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.

Seed CPAY in Interactive 3-Statement Model

Section 1 · Intrinsic Valuation Engine

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

WACC: 10.0% · Terminal Growth: 2.5% · Diluted Shares: 71.8M

bear Case DCFSensitivity

$140.10

Implied Equity Value:$10.07B

vs Current ($308.61):-54.6%

base Case DCFPrimary Benchmark

$327.69

Implied Equity Value:$23.54B

vs Current ($308.61):+6.2%

bull Case DCFSensitivity

$544.82

Implied Equity Value:$39.14B

vs Current ($308.61):+76.5%

Interactive What-If DCF SandboxSim Rule of 40: 52.1%

Stress-test CPAY's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.

Seed Custom Drivers in /model

1-Click Regimes:

5Y Revenue CAGR7.7%

2%Hist: 7.7%50%

Target FCF Margin44.4%

5%Base: 44.4%45%

WACC Discount Rate10.0%

6.5%Base: 10%14.5%

Terminal Growth (g)2.5%

1.0%Implies 13.7× Y5 FCF4.0%

Accounting Lens:

Simulated Implied Price$327.67

Spread vs Market+6.2%

Simulated EV$29.98B

Effective FCF Margin44.4%

Simulated 5-Year Cash Flow Trajectory (Unlevered FCF vs. Discounted PV)Cumulative 5Y PV: $8.29B

Year 1$4.28B

FCF:$1.90B

PV:$1.73B

Year 2$4.61B

FCF:$2.05B

PV:$1.69B

Year 3$4.97B

FCF:$2.20B

PV:$1.66B

Year 4$5.35B

FCF:$2.37B

PV:$1.62B

Year 5$5.76B

FCF:$2.56B

PV:$1.59B

Enterprise Value Composition Bridge$29.98B

Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value

5Y Explicit PV: $8.29B (27.6%)Terminal PV: $21.70B (72.4%)

(+) Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents+$1.55B

(−) Total Debt Obligations−$8.00B

(=) Implied Equity Value (71.8M shs)$23.54B

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $308.61).

WACC \ Terminal	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
8.5%	$373.66 +21%	$401.88 +30%	$434.81 +41%	$473.72 +54%	$520.41 +69%
9.3%	$327.51 +6%	$349.74 +13%	$375.27 +22%	$404.88 +31%	$439.64 +42%
10.0%	$289.54 -6%	$307.41 -0%	$327.67 +6%	$350.82 +14%	$377.54 +22%
10.8%	$257.75 -16%	$272.37 -12%	$288.75 -6%	$307.25 -0%	$328.31 +6%
11.5%	$230.76 -25%	$242.88 -21%	$256.35 -17%	$271.40 -12%	$288.33 -7%

Section 2 · Fundamental Underwriting

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (80/100 · Grade A)

High-Quality Compounder

Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.

Cash Conversion18 / 25

Actual: 99% of EBITTarget: Target: ≥100%

Solid cash generation with minor working capital absorption

Dilution Friction25 / 25

Actual: 2.9% of RevTarget: Target: ≤8%

Minimal dilution friction; management compensation aligned with shareholders

Unit Economics25 / 25

Actual: 78% GM / R40: 52%Target: Target: ≥75% GM / ≥40% R40

Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40

Balance Sheet12 / 25

Actual: -$6.44B Net DebtTarget: Target: Net Cash > 0

Moderate leverage or cash burn; monitor liquidity runway

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Low dilution friction: SBC is only 2.9% of revenue
Top-quartile software unit economics: 78.1% gross margin and 52.1% Rule of 40 score

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Section 3 · Expectations Investing

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into CPAY?

Fairly Priced to Fundamentals

Market implies 6.6% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (7.4% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.

Implied 5-Year Revenue CAGR

6.6%

Required to justify $28.62B EV

Historical Run-Rate CAGR

7.7%

Audited multi-year top-line trajectory

Growth Hurdle Spread

-1.1%

Implied hurdle minus historical growth

Implied FCF Margin @ Hist. Growth

42.4%

Steady-state FCF margin needed at current CAGR

Institutional Dilution-Adjusted Hurdle Lens

Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (2.9% of revenue) and annual share dilution (0.0%/yr). Accounting for both requires 7.4% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $308.61/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.

True Economic Hurdle7.4%

SBC & Dilution Hurdle Tax+0.8% / yr

Section 4 · 5-Year Forecast Schedule

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Customize in Live Engine

Statement Line Item	TTM Audited Base	TTM	Y1	Y2	Y3	Y4	Y5
Revenue	$3.97B	$3.97B	$4.28B	$4.61B	$4.96B	$5.35B	$5.76B
Gross Profit	$3.11B	$3.11B	$3.34B	$3.60B	$3.88B	$4.18B	$4.50B
Operating Income (EBIT)	$1.79B	$1.79B	$1.92B	$2.07B	$2.23B	$2.40B	$2.59B
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$116.7M	$116.9M	$125.8M	$135.5M	$145.9M	$157.2M	$169.2M
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$1.77B	$1.77B	$1.90B	$2.05B	$2.20B	$2.37B	$2.56B
SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow	$1.65B	$1.65B	$1.78B	$1.91B	$2.06B	$2.22B	$2.39B

Section 5 · Relative Valuation Multiples & Regression

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Click any peer node or ticker to open its dedicated equity research report

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -30.4 + 0.81 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 70%

Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.

CPAY Actual vs. Reg. Multiple7.2× vs 11.6× fair

Reg.-Implied Share Price$552.27 (38.0% Discount)

CPAYCORPAY, INC.·Rule of 40: 52.1%·Actual EV/Rev: 7.2×·Regression Fair Multiple: 11.6×

38.0% Below Trendline (Attractive)Open CPAY Report

Company	Ticker	Market Cap	TTM Revenue	Gross Margin	FCF Margin	Rule of 40	SBC % Rev	EV / Rev
CORPAY, INC.	CPAY	$22.17B	$3.97B	78.1%	44.4%	52.1%	2.9%	7.2×
ServiceNow	NOW	$152.61B	$10.98B	79.2%	31.1%	54.2%	15.9%	13.9×
Workday, Inc.	WDAY	$50.35B	$8.00B	75.0%	27.4%	43.9%	19.0%	6.4×
Salesforce	CRM	$217.10B	$37.90B	77.2%	32.8%	42.8%	8.4%	5.8×
Datadog	DDOG	$46.05B	$2.68B	80.8%	31.1%	57.7%	21.3%	17.4×
Snowflake Inc.	SNOW	$71.79B	$3.63B	66.5%	25.2%	57.7%	40.8%	20.0×
Hubspot	HUBS	$19.89B	$2.63B	85.0%	21.3%	52.7%	19.2%	7.7×
Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)				78.2%	29.2%	53.5%	19.1%	10.8×

Section 6 · Downside Protection & Multiple Sensitivity

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Multiple Scenario	EV / Revenue	Implied Enterprise Value	Implied Equity Value	Implied Share Price	Delta vs Current
Current Multiple	7.2×	$28.62B	$22.17B	$308.61	0.0%
-20% Multiple Compression	5.8×	$22.89B	$16.45B	$228.95	-20.0%
-35% Multiple Compression	4.7×	$18.60B	$12.16B	$169.21	-35.0%
Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)	5.0×	$19.87B	$13.43B	$186.93	-30.6%

Section 7 · Investor Diligence FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions: CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) Valuation

What is CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) has a Base Case implied value of $327.69 per share (with a Bear Case of $140.10 and a Bull Case of $544.82), compared to its current price of $308.61. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.

What is CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

CORPAY, INC. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 52.1%, combining a 7.7% revenue growth run-rate with a 44.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $3.97B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.

What revenue growth rate is priced into CPAY stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

At $308.61 per share (Enterprise Value of $28.62B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 6.6%, compared to CORPAY, INC.'s historical CAGR of 7.7%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".

How does CORPAY, INC. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 80/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)'s valuation?

CORPAY, INC. recorded $116.7M in TTM stock-based compensation (2.9% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, CORPAY, INC.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 7.4%, scoring 25/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer

WACC \ Terminal

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

8.5%

$373.66

+21%

$401.88

+30%

$434.81

+41%

$473.72

+54%

$520.41

+69%

9.3%

$327.51

+6%

$349.74

+13%

$375.27

+22%

$404.88

+31%

$439.64

+42%

10.0%

$289.54

-6%

$307.41

-0%

$327.67

+6%

$350.82

+14%

$377.54

+22%

10.8%

$257.75

-16%

$272.37

-12%

$288.75

-6%

$307.25

-0%

$328.31

+6%

11.5%

$230.76

-25%

$242.88

-21%

$256.35

-17%

$271.40

-12%

$288.33

-7%

Statement Line Item

TTM Audited Base

TTM

Revenue

$3.97B

$4.28B

$4.61B

$4.96B

$5.35B

$5.76B

Gross Profit

$3.11B

$3.34B

$3.60B

$3.88B

$4.18B

$4.50B

Operating Income (EBIT)

$1.79B

$1.92B

$2.07B

$2.23B

$2.40B

$2.59B

Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)

$116.7M

$116.9M

$125.8M

$135.5M

$145.9M

$157.2M

$169.2M

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF)

$1.77B

$1.90B

$2.05B

$2.20B

$2.37B

$2.56B

SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow

$1.65B

$1.78B

$1.91B

$2.06B

$2.22B

$2.39B

Company

Ticker

Market Cap

TTM Revenue

Gross Margin

FCF Margin

Rule of 40

SBC % Rev

EV / Rev

CORPAY, INC.

CPAY

$22.17B

$3.97B

78.1%

44.4%

52.1%

2.9%

7.2×

ServiceNow

NOW

$152.61B

$10.98B

79.2%

31.1%

54.2%

15.9%

13.9×

Workday, Inc.

WDAY

$50.35B

$8.00B

75.0%

27.4%

43.9%

19.0%

6.4×

Salesforce

CRM

$217.10B

$37.90B

77.2%

32.8%

42.8%

8.4%

5.8×

Datadog

DDOG

$46.05B

$2.68B

80.8%

31.1%

57.7%

21.3%

17.4×

Snowflake Inc.

SNOW

$71.79B

$3.63B

66.5%

25.2%

57.7%

40.8%

20.0×

Hubspot

HUBS

$19.89B

$2.63B

85.0%

21.3%

52.7%

19.2%

7.7×

Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6)

78.2%

29.2%

53.5%

19.1%

10.8×

Multiple Scenario

EV / Revenue

Implied Enterprise Value

Implied Equity Value

Implied Share Price

Delta vs Current

Current Multiple

7.2×

$28.62B

$22.17B

$308.61

0.0%

-20% Multiple Compression

5.8×

$22.89B

$16.45B

$228.95

-20.0%

-35% Multiple Compression

4.7×

$18.60B

$12.16B

$169.21

-35.0%

Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev)

5.0×

$19.87B

$13.43B

$186.93

-30.6%

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (80/100 · Grade A)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into CPAY?

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) Valuation

What is CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into CPAY stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does CORPAY, INC. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range

2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap

Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (80/100 · Grade A)

Core Investment Strengths & Moats

Key Operational & Dilution Risks

Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into CPAY?

CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast

Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression

Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression

EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test

Frequently Asked Questions: CORPAY, INC. (CPAY) Valuation

What is CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?

What is CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?

What revenue growth rate is priced into CPAY stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?

How does CORPAY, INC. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?

How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact CORPAY, INC. (CPAY)'s valuation?

Related Software & Cloud Services Equity Research Reports