Cricut, Inc. (CRCT) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Cricut, Inc. (CRCT) currently trades at $4.96 with an enterprise value of $1.35B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Cricut, Inc. at 88/100 (Grade: A+ · Elite SaaS Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 8.9% vs. historical growth of 19.2% (Substantial Margin of Safety).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Cricut, Inc. (CRCT) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Cricut, Inc. (CRCT) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test CRCT's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $4.96).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $7.82 +58% | $8.28 +67% | $8.81 +78% | $9.43 +90% | $10.18 +105% |
| 9.3% | $7.09 +43% | $7.44 +50% | $7.85 +58% | $8.33 +68% | $8.89 +79% |
| 10.0% | $6.48 +31% | $6.77 +36% | $7.09 +43% | $7.46 +51% | $7.89 +59% |
| 10.8% | $5.97 +20% | $6.21 +25% | $6.47 +30% | $6.77 +36% | $7.11 +43% |
| 11.5% | $5.54 +12% | $5.74 +16% | $5.95 +20% | $6.20 +25% | $6.47 +30% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (88/100 · Grade A+)
Exceptional unit economics, disciplined equity dilution, and fortress balance sheet.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 653% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 80.0% gross margin and 42.7% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $150.7M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into CRCT?
The current share price only requires 8.9% 5-year CAGR (20.0% dilution-adjusted), well below historical growth of 19.2%. If the company maintains baseline execution, there is asymmetric upside.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (13.4% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 20.0% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $4.96/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Cricut, Inc. (CRCT) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $214.4M | $214.4M | $255.5M | $304.6M | $363.0M | $432.7M | $515.8M |
| Gross Profit | $171.5M | $171.5M | $204.4M | $243.7M | $290.4M | $346.2M | $412.7M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $7.7M | $7.7M | $9.2M | $11.0M | $13.1M | $15.6M | $18.6M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $28.7M | $28.7M | $34.2M | $40.8M | $48.6M | $58.0M | $69.1M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $50.4M | $50.4M | $60.0M | $71.6M | $85.3M | $101.7M | $121.2M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $21.6M | $21.6M | $25.8M | $30.8M | $36.7M | $43.7M | $52.1M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -30.9 + 0.83 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 84%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cricut, Inc. | CRCT | $1.05B | $214.4M | 80.0% | 23.5% | 42.7% | 13.4% | 4.2× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 4.2× | $899.6M | $1.05B | $4.96 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 3.4× | $719.7M | $870.4M | $4.11 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.7× | $584.8M | $735.5M | $3.47 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $1.07B | $1.22B | $5.77 | +19.1% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Cricut, Inc. (CRCT) Valuation
What is Cricut, Inc. (CRCT)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Cricut, Inc. (CRCT) has a Base Case implied value of $7.09 per share (with a Bear Case of $3.51 and a Bull Case of $12.01), compared to its current price of $4.96. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Cricut, Inc. (CRCT)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Cricut, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 42.7%, combining a 19.2% revenue growth run-rate with a 23.5% TTM free cash flow margin on $214.4M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into CRCT stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $4.96 per share (Enterprise Value of $899.6M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 8.9%, compared to Cricut, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 19.2%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Substantial Margin of Safety".
How does Cricut, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Cricut, Inc. (CRCT) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 88/100 (Grade A+ — Elite SaaS Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Cricut, Inc. (CRCT)'s valuation?
Cricut, Inc. recorded $28.7M in TTM stock-based compensation (13.4% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Cricut, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 2.1%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.