Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP) currently trades at $10.73 with an enterprise value of $820.5M. Our proprietary institutional model rates Cantaloupe, Inc. at 83/100 (Grade: A · High-Quality Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 12.6% vs. historical growth of 15.0% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test CTLP's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $10.73).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $13.00 +21% | $13.79 +28% | $14.70 +37% | $15.78 +47% | $17.08 +59% |
| 9.3% | $11.73 +9% | $12.34 +15% | $13.05 +22% | $13.87 +29% | $14.84 +38% |
| 10.0% | $10.68 -0% | $11.17 +4% | $11.74 +9% | $12.38 +15% | $13.12 +22% |
| 10.8% | $9.80 -9% | $10.21 -5% | $10.66 -1% | $11.18 +4% | $11.76 +10% |
| 11.5% | $9.06 -16% | $9.39 -12% | $9.77 -9% | $10.19 -5% | $10.66 -1% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (83/100 · Grade A)
Strong fundamentals, above-average cash generation, and robust competitive positioning.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 204% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Healthy unit economics: 74.8% gross margin
- Net cash positive: $39.7M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into CTLP?
Market implies 12.6% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (23.4% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (11.3% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 23.4% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $10.73/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $174.7M | $174.7M | $201.0M | $231.1M | $265.8M | $305.6M | $351.5M |
| Gross Profit | $130.7M | $130.7M | $150.3M | $172.9M | $198.8M | $228.6M | $262.9M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $17.6M | $17.6M | $20.3M | $23.3M | $26.8M | $30.9M | $35.5M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $19.7M | $19.7M | $22.7M | $26.1M | $30.0M | $34.5M | $39.7M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $36.0M | $36.0M | $41.4M | $47.6M | $54.7M | $63.0M | $72.4M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $16.3M | $16.3M | $18.7M | $21.5M | $24.7M | $28.4M | $32.7M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -21.1 + 0.65 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 78%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cantaloupe, Inc. | CTLP | $786.4M | $174.7M | 74.8% | 20.6% | 35.6% | 11.3% | 4.3× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 4.3× | $746.7M | $786.4M | $10.73 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 3.4× | $597.4M | $637.0M | $8.69 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 2.8× | $485.3M | $525.0M | $7.16 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $873.7M | $913.4M | $12.46 | +17.0% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP) Valuation
What is Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP) has a Base Case implied value of $11.74 per share (with a Bear Case of $5.86 and a Bull Case of $19.36), compared to its current price of $10.73. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Cantaloupe, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 35.6%, combining a 15.0% revenue growth run-rate with a 20.6% TTM free cash flow margin on $174.7M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into CTLP stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $10.73 per share (Enterprise Value of $746.7M), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 12.6%, compared to Cantaloupe, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 15.0%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Cantaloupe, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 83/100 (Grade A — High-Quality Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Cantaloupe, Inc. (CTLP)'s valuation?
Cantaloupe, Inc. recorded $19.7M in TTM stock-based compensation (11.3% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Cantaloupe, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 2.1%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.