Doximity, Inc. (DOCS) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Doximity, Inc. (DOCS) currently trades at $151.83 with an enterprise value of $22.48B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Doximity, Inc. at 91/100 (Grade: A+ · Elite SaaS Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 28.6% vs. historical growth of 16.2% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Doximity, Inc. (DOCS) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Doximity, Inc. (DOCS) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (91/100 · Grade A+)
Exceptional unit economics, disciplined equity dilution, and fortress balance sheet.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Zero-debt fortress balance sheet with abundant net cash liquidity
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 198% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 80.9% gross margin and 47.8% Rule of 40 score
- Fortress capital structure: Zero debt and $2.20B in pure net cash
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into DOCS?
The current share price demands 28.6% 5-year CAGR—a +12.4% acceleration over historical run-rate (16.2%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Doximity, Inc. (DOCS) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.98B | $2.98B | $3.46B | $4.02B | $4.67B | $5.43B | $6.31B |
| Gross Profit | $2.41B | $2.41B | $2.80B | $3.25B | $3.78B | $4.39B | $5.10B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $476.5M | $476.5M | $553.7M | $643.4M | $747.6M | $868.8M | $1.01B |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $443.8M | $443.8M | $515.6M | $599.2M | $696.2M | $809.0M | $940.1M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $941.1M | $941.1M | $1.09B | $1.27B | $1.48B | $1.72B | $1.99B |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $497.4M | $497.4M | $577.9M | $671.6M | $780.3M | $906.8M | $1.05B |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables Matrix
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doximity, Inc. | DOCS | $37.94B | $2.98B | 80.9% | 31.6% | 47.8% | 14.9% | 12.0× |
| ServiceNow, Inc. | NOW | $192.40B | $10.98B | 79.5% | 31.5% | 54.0% | 15.8% | 17.2× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $38.74B | $2.98B | 74.9% | 20.8% | 41.1% | 17.1% | 12.5× |
| Salesforce, Inc. | CRM | $307.82B | $37.90B | 76.8% | 32.4% | 43.4% | 8.4% | 8.0× |
| Datadog, Inc. | DDOG | $45.58B | $2.68B | 81.2% | 28.5% | 55.0% | 20.4% | 16.1× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $54.93B | $3.62B | 74.0% | 26.0% | 54.0% | 34.5% | 14.7× |
| HubSpot, Inc. | HUBS | $38.18B | $4.76B | 83.4% | 16.9% | 38.8% | 10.9% | 7.4× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 27.3% | 48.7% | 16.4% | 13.6× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 12.0× | $35.74B | $37.94B | $151.83 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 9.6× | $28.59B | $30.79B | $123.23 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 7.8× | $23.23B | $25.43B | $101.78 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $14.89B | $17.09B | $68.41 | -58.3% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Doximity, Inc. (DOCS) Valuation
What is Doximity, Inc. (DOCS)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Doximity, Inc. (DOCS) has a Base Case implied value of $98.78 per share (with a Bear Case of $50.58 and a Bull Case of $162.38), compared to its current price of $151.83. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Doximity, Inc. (DOCS)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Doximity, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 47.8%, combining a 16.2% revenue growth run-rate with a 31.6% TTM free cash flow margin on $2.98B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 48.7%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into DOCS stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $151.83 per share (Enterprise Value of $35.74B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 28.6%, compared to Doximity, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 16.2%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does Doximity, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Doximity, Inc. (DOCS) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 91/100 (Grade A+ — Elite SaaS Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 13.6× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Doximity, Inc. (DOCS)'s valuation?
Doximity, Inc. recorded $443.8M in TTM stock-based compensation (14.9% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Doximity, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.3%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.