Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG) currently trades at $35.00 with an enterprise value of $1.29B. Our proprietary institutional model rates Everbridge, Inc. at 88/100 (Grade: A+ · Elite SaaS Compounder). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 24.4% vs. historical growth of 22.6% (Fairly Priced to Fundamentals).
Institutional fundamental teardown of Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test EVBG's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $35.00).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $36.38 +4% | $38.60 +10% | $41.20 +18% | $44.27 +26% | $47.95 +37% |
| 9.3% | $32.77 -6% | $34.52 -1% | $36.53 +4% | $38.87 +11% | $41.61 +19% |
| 10.0% | $29.80 -15% | $31.21 -11% | $32.81 -6% | $34.63 -1% | $36.74 +5% |
| 10.8% | $27.32 -22% | $28.47 -19% | $29.76 -15% | $31.22 -11% | $32.88 -6% |
| 11.5% | $25.22 -28% | $26.17 -25% | $27.23 -22% | $28.42 -19% | $29.76 -15% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (88/100 · Grade A+)
Exceptional unit economics, disciplined equity dilution, and fortress balance sheet.
Elite deferred revenue float; FCF exceeds operating income by >20%
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
Elite Tier-1 SaaS compounder with high gross margin and superior Rule of 40
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- High-grade cash conversion: FCF is 4460% of EBIT driven by upfront annual collections
- Top-quartile software unit economics: 76.8% gross margin and 44.9% Rule of 40 score
- Net cash positive: $78.3M balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into EVBG?
Market implies 24.4% annual revenue growth over next 5 years (36.8% dilution-adjusted), in line with company run-rate.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (13.0% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 36.8% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $35.00/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $189.2M | $189.2M | $231.9M | $284.3M | $348.6M | $427.4M | $524.0M |
| Gross Profit | $145.3M | $145.3M | $178.1M | $218.4M | $267.7M | $328.2M | $402.4M |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $945.8K | $945.8K | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.7M | $2.1M | $2.6M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $24.6M | $24.6M | $30.1M | $37.0M | $45.3M | $55.6M | $68.1M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $42.2M | $42.2M | $51.7M | $63.4M | $77.7M | $95.3M | $116.8M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $17.6M | $17.6M | $21.6M | $26.4M | $32.4M | $39.7M | $48.7M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -29.2 + 0.80 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 81%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everbridge, Inc. | EVBG | $1.46B | $189.2M | 76.8% | 22.3% | 44.9% | 13.0% | 7.3× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 7.3× | $1.38B | $1.46B | $35.00 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 5.8× | $1.10B | $1.18B | $28.38 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 4.7× | $895.9M | $974.2M | $23.41 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $945.8M | $1.02B | $24.61 | -31.4% |
Frequently Asked Questions: Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG) Valuation
What is Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG) has a Base Case implied value of $32.81 per share (with a Bear Case of $14.63 and a Bull Case of $58.87), compared to its current price of $35.00. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
Everbridge, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 44.9%, combining a 22.6% revenue growth run-rate with a 22.3% TTM free cash flow margin on $189.2M in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into EVBG stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $35.00 per share (Enterprise Value of $1.38B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 24.4%, compared to Everbridge, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 22.6%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Fairly Priced to Fundamentals".
How does Everbridge, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 88/100 (Grade A+ — Elite SaaS Compounder). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact Everbridge, Inc. (EVBG)'s valuation?
Everbridge, Inc. recorded $24.6M in TTM stock-based compensation (13.0% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, Everbridge, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 1.2%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.