FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT) DCF Valuation & Fundamental Primer
FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT) currently trades at $303.26 with an enterprise value of $10.45B. Our proprietary institutional model rates FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. at 71/100 (Grade: B+ · Quality Software Operator). The current market price prices in an implied 5-year revenue CAGR of 40.9% vs. historical growth of 21.6% (Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In).
Institutional fundamental teardown of FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT) covering SEC 10-K/10-Q cash flow conversion, SBC dilution friction, and Reverse-DCF valuation hurdles.
FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT) 3-Scenario DCF Valuation Range
Stress-test FLT's 5-year growth, target FCF margin, WACC, terminal methodology, and SBC/dilution friction in real time.
Split between 5-Year Explicit Cash Flows and Discounted Terminal Value
2D Institutional Valuation Sensitivity Heatmap
Implied share price & upside/downside spread across 25 valuation states (Current Price: $303.26).
| WACC \ Terminal | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $176.54 -42% | $186.97 -38% | $199.14 -34% | $213.52 -30% | $230.78 -24% |
| 9.3% | $159.61 -47% | $167.83 -45% | $177.26 -42% | $188.21 -38% | $201.06 -34% |
| 10.0% | $145.70 -52% | $152.31 -50% | $159.79 -47% | $168.35 -44% | $178.23 -41% |
| 10.8% | $134.07 -56% | $139.48 -54% | $145.53 -52% | $152.37 -50% | $160.15 -47% |
| 11.5% | $124.22 -59% | $128.69 -58% | $133.67 -56% | $139.24 -54% | $145.49 -52% |
Institutional Software Quality Scorecard (71/100 · Grade B+)
Solid software model with clear operating leverage, partially offset by standard SBC or moderate burn.
Positive FCF but lower conversion efficiency due to capex or timing
Standard software SBC dilution; modest equity transfer to employees
High-quality software margins with healthy balanced growth and profitability
Positive net cash cushion; self-funding operations with zero insolvency risk
Core Investment Strengths & Moats
- Healthy unit economics: 75.1% gross margin
- Net cash positive: $1.04B balance sheet buffer
Key Operational & Dilution Risks
Reverse-DCF Solver: What Growth is Priced Into FLT?
The current share price demands 40.9% 5-year CAGR (60.0% net of SBC & dilution)—a +19.3% acceleration over historical run-rate (21.6%). Any growth slowdown risks valuation multiple contraction.
Headline Reverse-DCF ignores Stock-Based Compensation (9.9% of revenue) and annual share dilution (1.8%/yr). Accounting for both requires 60.0% 5-year revenue CAGR to justify $303.26/sh on a true per-share economic cash flow basis.
FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT) 5-Year Fundamental Forecast
| Statement Line Item | TTM Audited Base | TTM | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.87B | $2.87B | $3.49B | $4.24B | $5.16B | $6.27B | $7.62B |
| Gross Profit | $2.15B | $2.15B | $2.62B | $3.18B | $3.87B | $4.71B | $5.72B |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-31.5M | $-31.5M | $-38.4M | $-46.6M | $-56.7M | $-69.0M | $-83.9M |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $283.8M | $283.8M | $345.2M | $419.7M | $510.4M | $620.6M | $754.7M |
| Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $355.5M | $355.5M | $432.3M | $525.7M | $639.3M | $777.3M | $945.2M |
| SBC-Adjusted True Cash Flow | $71.7M | $71.7M | $87.2M | $106.0M | $128.9M | $156.7M | $190.6M |
Software & Cloud Services Peer Comparables & Rule of 40 Regression
Rule of 40 vs. EV / Revenue Multiple Regression
OLS Fit: EV/Rev = -14.1 + 0.52 × (Rule of 40) · R² = 63%Stocks below the gold regression line trade at a discount relative to their Rule of 40 compounding efficiency.
| Company | Ticker | Market Cap | TTM Revenue | Gross Margin | FCF Margin | Rule of 40 | SBC % Rev | EV / Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. | FLT | $21.79B | $2.87B | 75.1% | 12.4% | 34.0% | 9.9% | 7.2× |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $152.61B | $10.98B | 79.2% | 31.1% | 54.2% | 15.9% | 13.9× |
| Workday, Inc. | WDAY | $50.35B | $8.00B | 75.0% | 27.4% | 43.9% | 19.0% | 6.4× |
| Salesforce | CRM | $217.10B | $37.90B | 77.2% | 32.8% | 42.8% | 8.4% | 5.8× |
| Datadog | DDOG | $46.05B | $2.68B | 80.8% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 21.3% | 17.4× |
| Snowflake Inc. | SNOW | $71.79B | $3.63B | 66.5% | 25.2% | 57.7% | 40.8% | 20.0× |
| Hubspot | HUBS | $19.89B | $2.63B | 85.0% | 21.3% | 52.7% | 19.2% | 7.7× |
| Peer Cohort Median Benchmark (N=6) | 78.2% | 29.2% | 53.5% | 19.1% | 10.8× | |||
EV / Revenue Multiple Compression Stress Test
| Multiple Scenario | EV / Revenue | Implied Enterprise Value | Implied Equity Value | Implied Share Price | Delta vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Multiple | 7.2× | $20.76B | $21.79B | $303.26 | 0.0% |
| -20% Multiple Compression | 5.8× | $16.60B | $17.64B | $245.49 | -20.0% |
| -35% Multiple Compression | 4.7× | $13.49B | $14.53B | $202.16 | -35.0% |
| Software Baseline Floor (5.0× EV/Rev) | 5.0× | $14.34B | $15.37B | $213.92 | -30.9% |
Frequently Asked Questions: FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT) Valuation
What is FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT)'s intrinsic DCF valuation and implied share price?
Based on audited SEC 10-K/10-Q filings and a 5-year 3-statement discounted cash flow (DCF) model, FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT) has a Base Case implied value of $159.79 per share (with a Bear Case of $75.42 and a Bull Case of $279.28), compared to its current price of $303.26. The model discounts projected free cash flows at a 10.0% WACC and a 2.5% terminal growth rate.
What is FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT)'s Rule of 40 score and Free Cash Flow margin?
FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. achieves a Rule of 40 score of 34.0%, combining a 21.6% revenue growth run-rate with a 12.4% TTM free cash flow margin on $2.87B in trailing twelve-month revenue. In the Software & Cloud Services peer cohort, the median Rule of 40 benchmark is 53.5%.
What revenue growth rate is priced into FLT stock according to Reverse-DCF analysis?
At $303.26 per share (Enterprise Value of $20.76B), our Reverse-DCF solver indicates the market is pricing in a 5-year implied revenue CAGR of 40.9%, compared to FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc.'s historical CAGR of 21.6%. Overall market expectations are rated as "Aggressive Growth Expectations Priced In".
How does FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. compare to Software & Cloud Services software peers?
FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT) earns an institutional Software Quality Score of 71/100 (Grade B+ — Quality Software Operator). Across its Software & Cloud Services peer group (NOW, WDAY, CRM, DDOG, SNOW), the cohort trades at a median EV/TTM Revenue multiple of 10.8× and a median gross margin of 78.2%.
How does Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) impact FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. (FLT)'s valuation?
FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc. recorded $283.8M in TTM stock-based compensation (9.9% of revenue). When treating SBC as a cash-equivalent compensation expense, FLEETCOR Technologies, Inc.'s SBC-adjusted free cash flow yield is 0.3%, scoring 16/25 on our Shareholder Dilution Friction pillar.